In theory it's possible for inflation to occur without central banking. In practice, all inflation originates with the central banks-- they print the money, and they loan money into existence. Everything else about money is just side effects.
If central banks treat money this way, can you imagine how they will treat cryptocurrency and DeFi? I'm not even talking about CBDCs, either.
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And then they forget about those loans - BAD LOANS feeding the rich, the banks and the government.
CBDCs are no different. In fact now you can get traced so easily.
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CBDCs are surveillance tools made with the purpose of squeezing every last fraction of a cent of taxes from the people. It would be interesting to see how drug dealers and those engaged in illicit activities handle this environment. Under those conditions, they may turn out to be heroes by showing the rest of us what to do.
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Well...I agree with your postulate concerning governmental interference and intrusion into the cryptosphere, but inflation can occur without central bank interference - its called 'demand pull inflation' and basically is market inefficiencies causing inflation.
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Isn't the difference between demand pull inflation and central bank-induced inflation the fact that former is more limited in its effects than the latter? Hyperinflation as what happened in Weimar Republic Germany after World War I and in Zimbabwe earlier in the 21st Century was made possible by central bank interventions; no amount of demand pull inflation could have caused them.
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My comment was addressed to this statement you made.
While this is true so far in our history, the world has yet to see a total collapse of production units. Should there come a time production becomes impossible for whatever reason, just watch inflation kick in for the goods that do remain in the system. Economics 101 - no supply with a demand present equals an infinite price.
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My fear is that we may be the poor suckers to witness that event.
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I would submit that the US inflation issues of the 1970s and going into the early 80s was caused more by other forces outside of monetary policy.
The fact that we saw an oil embargo when the US was totally dependent upon OPEC caused a rippling effect through the economy. This caused the price of everything to go up since oil was at the core of most all economic activity in some way.
Also, the idea of hyperinflation is any currency outside some small nation is impossible. Technology is simply too much a part of the global economy, and it is growing.
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One other event in the early 1970s contributed to the economic woes which accompanied the OPEC oil embargoes: the abandonment of the gold standard by the United States (closing the "gold window"). Prices increased at a small steady rate before then, but after USD went pure fiat it was off to the races for prices. It took until the mid-1980s for prices to settle down.
While there is no gold to abandon this time around, pure mathematics will bring grossly indebted economies to their knees. It can't be a good for a nation to have its national debt exceed 100% of its CGP and a significant portion of its annual budget assigned just to pay interest on the national debt.
Since USD is the world reserve currency, the United States will be brought to its knees last. The suspense comes in seeing if it chooses to undergo a controlled glide or a spectacular crash-and-burn. With the current crop of elites we have, I expect the spectacular crash-and-burn.
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That's a good point
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Not really. The inflation of late is due to supply chain issue. We see inflation yet lending is contracting.
Friedman talked about all inflation being monetary in a stable velocity of money environment which was standard during his time.
We are far from that.
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