One logic I heard was is, fed will keep hawkish if unemployment is low enough, and can tolerate about 4+% unemployment rate.
If that’s true and that’s how actually things happen we may expect 75bps now, and maybe 75bps in December too.
If not 75bps which I guess is market expectation? Haven’t checked, and lower than that, like 50bps, pump
And even if Powell gives idea for January, any sort of doveish wording, markets pump on that expectation
But they should, keep raising rates unless inflation comes down, but historically they don’t.
Now the question is how much Powell can fight such environment and keep raising rates 😅
He did mentioned at some point learning lessons from Paul Volker
Like previous times, I expect Powell to be cryptic worded this time too
But maybe he will not be kind of as aggressive as before in wordings or responses
I read zerohedge premium articles
And some bank bears are also showing signs of pivot and recovery in the short term
But with also bear signs next year.
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