Yeah, the system probably is even more complicated than that. That´s why these are just are rough estimates. But I don´t think that downvotes make big differences as they actually do both, they decrease your reputation as well as the rewards. So the ration between rep and total rewards should be the same for everyone. But according to those stats recording tools, it´s not... Strange.
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I think your rep only drops if the person downvoting is higher in reputation than you. It's complicated so the measure isn't exactly always accurate.
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