Hello! It's me and I have been away for a while, but came back to check out the INleo community and see whats new!
This article looks good. I read the INtroduction, strong work.
The Core Thesis Explained
Arthur Hayes' central argument is that the predictable, four-year Bitcoin cycle, historically driven by the halving, is becoming less dominant. It isn't disappearing, but its influence is being overshadowed and stretched out by a much larger force: the relentless expansion of global fiat liquidity.
In simple terms, the tidal wave of money being printed by central banks worldwide is now a more significant driver of Bitcoin's price than its own pre-programmed supply shocks. This is causing the cycles to become longer, less volatile, and more tied to the global credit cycle than to a simple four-year calendar.
Let's break down the three key components of his argument.
The "Old" Four-Year Cycle: Driven by the Halving
To understand how the cycle is changing, we first must understand what it was.
What it is: Approximately every four years, the reward paid to Bitcoin miners for securing the network is cut in half. This event is called the "halving."
The Economic Impact: The halving is a supply shock. It abruptly reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is created, making the asset scarcer.
The Historical Pattern:
Halving Event: The supply of new coins is cut.
Accumulation Phase: Price grinds sideways or slowly up as supply tightens.
Bull Market: The supply crunch eventually triggers a powerful price rally. This rally attracts media attention and new retail investors, leading to a period of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and a parabolic price explosion.
Blow-off Top: The market becomes over-leveraged and euphoric, leading to a dramatic peak.
Bear Market: The bubble pops, leading to a severe crash (typically 80%+ from the top) and a long, painful downturn until the next halving approaches.
This cycle was predictable and primarily an internal, crypto-native phenomenon.
The New Drivers: Why the Cycle is Expanding
According to Hayes, the global economic environment has fundamentally changed, and this change is rewriting Bitcoin's script.
a) Unprecedented Money Printing and Credit Expansion
As an economist, this is the most critical factor. Since the 2008 financial crisis, and especially since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve have injected trillions of dollars into the financial system.
The Problem: This massive increase in the supply of fiat currency (USD, EUR, JPY, etc.) debases it. Each dollar is worth less, and its purchasing power declines. This is inflation.
The Consequence: There is now a colossal pool of capital—held by institutions, corporations, and high-net-worth individuals—that is actively seeking a safe haven. Holding cash is a guaranteed loss of value over time. Traditional "safe" assets like government bonds often pay interest rates below the rate of inflation, meaning they also guarantee a loss of purchasing power (negative real yields).
Where is the link??
#threadcast
Link! https://inleo.io/@shortsegments/the-bitcoin-cycle-is-broken-billionaire-arthur-hayes-speaks-4ik?referral=shortsegments
This is a pretty bullish statement!
This is a very good read, the things he is saying are logical and make sense when you read it.
Well what a handsome young man. This Arthur Hayes is one of the few Billionaire Traders and Bitcoin Enthusist. The article makes a lot of sense.
#threadcast #threadstorm #THREADCAST
Hello! It's me and I have been away for a while, but came back to check out the INleo community and see whats new!
This article looks good. I read the INtroduction, strong work.
#threadcast #threadstorm #thread #inleo
When #threadcast??
The Core Thesis Explained
Arthur Hayes' central argument is that the predictable, four-year Bitcoin cycle, historically driven by the halving, is becoming less dominant. It isn't disappearing, but its influence is being overshadowed and stretched out by a much larger force: the relentless expansion of global fiat liquidity.
In simple terms, the tidal wave of money being printed by central banks worldwide is now a more significant driver of Bitcoin's price than its own pre-programmed supply shocks. This is causing the cycles to become longer, less volatile, and more tied to the global credit cycle than to a simple four-year calendar.
Let's break down the three key components of his argument.
To understand how the cycle is changing, we first must understand what it was.
What it is: Approximately every four years, the reward paid to Bitcoin miners for securing the network is cut in half. This event is called the "halving."
The Economic Impact: The halving is a supply shock. It abruptly reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is created, making the asset scarcer.
The Historical Pattern:
Halving Event: The supply of new coins is cut.
Accumulation Phase: Price grinds sideways or slowly up as supply tightens.
Bull Market: The supply crunch eventually triggers a powerful price rally. This rally attracts media attention and new retail investors, leading to a period of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and a parabolic price explosion.
Blow-off Top: The market becomes over-leveraged and euphoric, leading to a dramatic peak.
Bear Market: The bubble pops, leading to a severe crash (typically 80%+ from the top) and a long, painful downturn until the next halving approaches.
This cycle was predictable and primarily an internal, crypto-native phenomenon.
According to Hayes, the global economic environment has fundamentally changed, and this change is rewriting Bitcoin's script.
a) Unprecedented Money Printing and Credit Expansion
As an economist, this is the most critical factor. Since the 2008 financial crisis, and especially since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve have injected trillions of dollars into the financial system.
The Problem: This massive increase in the supply of fiat currency (USD, EUR, JPY, etc.) debases it. Each dollar is worth less, and its purchasing power declines. This is inflation.
The Consequence: There is now a colossal pool of capital—held by institutions, corporations, and high-net-worth individuals—that is actively seeking a safe haven. Holding cash is a guaranteed loss of value over time. Traditional "safe" assets like government bonds often pay interest rates below the rate of inflation, meaning they also guarantee a loss of purchasing power (negative real yields).