The Core Thesis Explained
Arthur Hayes' central argument is that the predictable, four-year Bitcoin cycle, historically driven by the halving, is becoming less dominant. It isn't disappearing, but its influence is being overshadowed and stretched out by a much larger force: the relentless expansion of global fiat liquidity.
In simple terms, the tidal wave of money being printed by central banks worldwide is now a more significant driver of Bitcoin's price than its own pre-programmed supply shocks. This is causing the cycles to become longer, less volatile, and more tied to the global credit cycle than to a simple four-year calendar.