Back in early 2017 - I held about three Bitcoin that I had been trading backward and forward for over the space of a couple months. Back then, it equated to less than three thousand dollars and I do not hold near that much in BTC now - I traded most of it for Steem and a bag of random alts I still hold.
After the halving so far, the resulting highs have taken over a year to reach, but they have been significantly higher, 10 - 1000, 800 - 20,000 and the latest, 9000 - ?????? - who knows, it could crash to zero also. When it comes to history being a good predictor of the future, Bitcoin might be the granddaddy of crypto, but it was a very, very, very young father. Not even a teen.
But looking at the chart of price with the halvings indicated, shows that the next high after the third halving that happened yesterday could be considerably higher than the current price. What price would that be is anyone's guess, as it is going to have to be driven by a lot more participation from external sources, likely institutional money coming in, not tech geeks from their mother's basement.
Mainstreaming Bitcoin would likely eventuate on a far greater splash of light on the alt markets also and if people remember from the last bullrun, even Ethereum was getting attention on mainstream media. Let's say the price of Bitcoin was going to make a similar move that it did in the last shift, that would put it at around 200,000 dollars - which means that there would be quite a few more technical millionaires in the world, not me however - as I don't hold anywhere near enough.
However, if this did happen to Bitcoin, what would the run look like for alts?
From that BTC run from 800 - 20,000 (25x) for example, Steem went from 7 cents to 8 dollars(114x) - It did drop back to almost that point again at the ass-end of the bear also, but it is interesting to think that at around that time, most alts saw gains, some saw astronomical gains. If, the next run is 10x greater than the last, I would suspect that some of the alts are going to go insane, with the challenge being which of them will be able to take attention.
HIVE?
I hope so. Especially as it is one of the few that encourages participation in a community and ownership and freedoms in areas that are continually being removed in other digital realms of society. It also has the strongest community in crypto as well as a pool of funds for development that could produce applications that capture the attention and admiration of the new crypto enthusiasts, all those who are not yet in the space at all.
There is a great amount of potential in price movement on Hive and if the blockchain and community prepares itself well, it should also be able to retain a good deal of that value when the bear markets return, by having applications that are not reliant on the value of the pool alone, but are supported economically by their user base in the same way other businesses operate.
However, much like the bullrun in 2017, people will chop and change between projects hoping to maximize their profits and feel that they "missed out" if they didn't make the right moves, only getting 10x instead of 20x, or 50x instead of 100x - people will always see the loss. Even when Steem hit its high, those who had bought at the previous low and held all the way down to the last low, would have still been up around 50% in the space of two years - not bad.
I think that in the next run, there will be gains to be made all over the place and as long as the projects chosen survive into the future, the gains could be very, very good for some. A community project like Hive that offers a diverse range of investment options and usage experiences has a very good chance of being a bucket that captures a lot of the market. In particular, it offers the potential for an individual to experience the full range of the diversity with a single account - which with a little bit of clever design, simplifies and adds convenience into usage.
The future of rewarding blockchains is Hive-like at the very least, infrastructure that can house a wide variety of applications, a marketplace, games and multiple ways to direct attention and therefore, the flow of value. When that value is flowing throughout applications all sitting on the one platform, the movement itself generates more value by encouraging more participation from developers and therefore, the potential for new users to be attracted also. Plus, the ability of the blockchain to make the middleman obsolete frees up a lot of resources for a much more direct path between contributor and consumer - an important step in freedom of information.
While the price of alts are coupled to the fate of Bitcoin for the foreseeable future, there are benefits in this as it will mean that when the light of attention shines on BTC, it will soon spill heavily onto the alts, with those that can offer something more than speculation likely to retain some traction post-run.
I do think that Hive is one of the blockchains that is going to make inroads into the enduser markets and with the right foundations, retain them long-term, all the way up to the next bullrun, where the mass will grow again and will start o have its own gravity - working a little more independently and slowly decoupling from Bitcoin to at least some degree. The decoupling might be at the core token layer, but it is more likely going to be at the application level through SMTs, where regardless of the price of other tokens, people will keep supporting the applications they enjoy - much like a recession doesn't stop people using Instagram or Facebook.
But, it is a complex and highly volatile infant industry and anything can happen, which is why there is risk and value associated with it. "Guess right" and put your money down and be comfortable for life, put your money in the wrong place at the wrong time, and it becomes a swing and a miss. Currently, there are many people who aren't even willing to pick up the bat.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
If we get an institutional bubble, like in 1999 with the internet, it's going to be crazy. Institutions act like gamblers during bubbles, and they bring with them mass retail as well, even those that are against crypto now.
The dot-com bubble reached 8 trillion dollars in total market cap. It was way harder for retail to get into stocks than it is for people to get into crypto now. It was a US only bubble, crypto is global. Companies can grow up to a limit, while a coin which replaces money has a market cap limit depending on one's imagination only. Also from 2000 to 2020, there is 20 years of inflation, which make the 8 trillion dollars now worth at least 15 trillion.
Total crypto market cap is at 250 billion right now, so 8 trillion is already an 32x. 15 trillion is a 60X.
The crypto upside is only limited by profit taking. When a coin pumps 100x, even the strongest hands sell. I am very excited to see how it will all play out.
For sure. People are against something until they think they are going to miss out on gains.
Inflation is something that most do not consider with their investments, for example in houses. Buying a house for a 100k and selling it 5 years later for 120K isn't that great of a deal - other than storing the value.
100 dollar hive is a 4B cap thereabouts. Not so much really.
You'd think! ;D
100 dollar HIVE is a market cap of 30B not 4B... The supply is around 300 million depending on whether you count the DAO in and the HIVE inflation for the next couple of years. Long way to go.
oops, I should read what I write when adding numbers. Steem was close to 2B at the last run up. I think the supply is around 350M now? I think it is from next year that the inflation stars increasing at a decreasing rate and by 2036 it will be the 0.95% and around 7M new HIVE a year - a lot can happen in that time though.
At the moment, it is very difficult to predict something. Bitcoin is gradually coming to a point where it can already be said where the price will go. So far, I have kept the maximum assets in USDt.
https://twitter.com/Andruto2/status/1260133150589583361It is going to be an interesting ride the next 1.5-2 years in many ways. If it does go up significantly, the drive from governments to control it will increase even more
Agree with this thought about government control.
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It will make things interesting in combination with other economic factors ongoing.
I think, although this sounds crazy, governments, or rather their puppeteers, already control most of the crypto.
Hi @cranium
I love your GIF
I agree that Bitcoin is a very unpredictable to my Cryptocurrency.
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Thank you, I started to collect my collection of emotions in the form of gifs. Here is the funniest find, in my opinion.
And about any forecasts - it is useless, life always presents its own corrections.
Those are cute. Life is sometimes like the second one; things appear to be going well and then your f..ked 😂
Have you heard of the stock to flow model for bitcoin? The chart has been about 99% accurate over bitcoin's history and bitcoin is exactly where it should be right now. After the halvening the stock to flow goes up drastically but the price usually takes about a year to match the value it's worth. The chart predicts $94,000 bitcoin this time next year.
I haven't heard of it, will do a search.
This sounds about right, but I think the high will be maybe two years out - but that is just my random guessing :D
I think the next high will be between $100,000-$300,000 according to the model and around January 2022
Q1 2022 is where I would put the high - the lead in is going to be immense.
Being a HODLer since 2012 that really pained me to read.
Meh, I didn't have that much, but I did learn a lot along the way :)
Historically BTC takes 18 month to reach a new ATH after each halvening.
Burned by shitcoins here too thought it seemed such a nice paradigm shift for many business cases. Oh well, just a matter of time, just not necessarily it's going to be exactly the same shitcoins. Paradigm shift is still viable it just might be different teams and coins that put it to life.
This is the challenge :D
I have been holding the bitcoin from 2017 too or even earlier. My motto is simple to keep it for long term, I know it will be a great investment for sure.
Long-term is where it is at, but I am not sure how long it will go :)
Long term for me is till that time, till I don't need that money.
Thats why making Investments in financial items such as "crypto" is for tough minded people. I would rather risk at least something by investing in the Bitcoin now and wait patiently to see how it all plays out for whatever future years rather than just sit back and regret later when the bitcoin sky rockets.
I once did the calculation over a year on average investments, and it was something like 2% into BTC would outperform the other 98.
I’m glad I have held onto my Bitcoins since 2017. What a wild ride. Buy the dips. Get 10,000 satoshi free every day from shaking your phone.
Actifit?
Nope
I don't know how people have time and energy to chase all of these drips.
I love drips ( Dividend reinvestment income Plans) .... this one is Not a drip or faucet though. Shakepay ... Only available in Canada. If you have 100 faucets earning $1 a day ... that’s $ 100 a day.... staked and earning more .... every day. Do the same thing with Shopify, Amazon, Google, and Apple. Buy 1 share each on the dips. Turn every dip into a drip and you can retire before your 30.
I have not seen so rapid development in a long time, as with Hive community. Surely for a less technical person the platform might seem confusing.
I like the symbolism of an eusocial species nest, which is said to be the highest level of organization. Can see the potential, if focused on the code instead of price tags.
The problem with BTC is still the pyramid structure, which do always crash. dPOS can be more efficient in that, so there are risks. Surely the witnesses and whales are not going altruistic all of a sudden.
Yep - I am hoping that each application approaches this aand keeps improving it for non-users, not those who are already here and have some understanding.
I am yet to see much altruism in the crypto space yet :)
Hi Micefy,
I hadn’t given much thought to the Hive name, but after viewing your comment, I want to give it more thought.
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Marketing relies on mental images, and there are many ways to approach the subject. For community perspective, the platform structure has many things in common with a beehive.
Have been interested in figuring out, if humans can achieve the similar tribal structure, like ants have. They keep on running around on 3rd floor flat, no way to get rid of them unless going for mass destruction, poison.
Yesterday, I sold some steem for bitcoin, made a few bucks, and rolled it over to hive.
And Im good with it. Even happy. :)
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Nice information for all hivers because this we are very important to know about cryptocurrency..