Nothing left to trust, but the trustless

in LeoFinance7 days ago (edited)

Does anyone else feel like many streams are pulling together to a point in the not too distant future? There seems to be so much tension in the air with the insanity that is American politics, inaugurations, impeachments and a fair chance for more violence on the streets, the expansion of "mutant strains" of Covid to enforce stricter lockdowns with more complicated rules, announcements from the World Bank saying not to be overly optimistic and the purge from social platforms.

In the last couple days, the news site I have been using as a mainstream barometer and which has had no mention of Bitcoin until it hit about 35,000 dollars, has been reveling in the recent drop in value by spreading FUD. Stories about how people who bought Bitcoin will literally "lose all their money", which I have seen repeated in the UK news also. I saw one say that there is a risk that they might not be able to sell back into fiat because - there may not be the volume. Granted, volume is down by 8% in the last 24 hours, but it was still above 70 billion and I expect that with the current ongoing pump, that will increase further.

glass ball.jpg

It is funny though, as while it has been pretty quiet in the mainstream lead up to the all time highs, once there was a retrace, the FUD starts flying. I see this like any kind of media drive, where they allow and even support the quiet rise of "celebrity" but once at the top, will look to cut them down to size for the sport of it, the drama of it, the manipulation of it.

But, I feel that with these various streams, there is a unifying trend that binds them together to create some kind of perfect storm scenario that could very well be the biggest opportunity for crypto adoption ever.

We can see that over the last 6 months, companies have publicly been buying Bitcoin in large volumes, but they were likely buying for months or years earlier in smaller amounts on the sly. With the cost of holding cash on hand being multiplied by the cost of governments printing money, they have to put that cash somewhere. However, most investment companies likely aren't ready or aren't allowed by law to invest into crypto with customer funds, but private companies are allowed with their own.

The share prices keep climbing because those with cash are disincentivized to keep it, but with no options for alternatives, people keep investing into the companies, even though the gap between price and the activity of the business itself keeps growing. For example, there are rules for retirement funds in Finland that severely limit their range of companies to invest into, but they have to invest into something in order to make gains for the future. In many ways, they are trapped by regulation in a similar way to most of us, maybe more so in some.

While I don't feel sorry for them as companies, they are "entrusted" to generate wealth for people, ordinary people like you and I who work jobs and have to put money into some kind of superannuation fund. If they are hamstrung by where they can invest the capital due to risk exposure, nationality of company or rating, while that offers some protection in some conditions, if it becomes too narrow, those who suffer when the bubble bursts will be ordinary people, not the investment company itself.

What this means is that there is going to be a greater drive for institutions to be be somewhat less regulated, as the corporations that are "free" to invest into risk will take the value for themselves. At some point and perhaps it has happened in some places already, retirement funds will be "allowed" to invest our money into something like Bitcoin, or at least a portion of the fund. The market cap is nothing today in comparison to if these funds put single digit investments in.

Then, with the increasing drive against big tech for shady dealings, behavior and "unfair" competition practices, there is the chance that more regulation gets placed on them, which will push them into reducing their exposure to local risk, pointing them toward crypto. Not only this, a lot of their users wills tart recognizing just how harmful these behaviors have been and they will also start looking for alternatives, which would be great for Hive.

While this is all speculation (isn't everything?), I do think that the growing tension is increasing uncertainty and people will both start to panic in some way, as their world crumbles down around them. FUD and FOMO working hand in hand to make people reevaluate their defaults and see if there is a better way to combat their stress or build their security.

People want to feel safe and the current world conditions feel anything but secure, so like rats swimming to look for something to cling to, we will look for something we can trust in. The governments are failing, the corporations are failing, the media are failing and so much of the consumer world says "trust me" yet fails to be trustworthy time and time again.

Time to go trustless.

How will the markets respond?

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]

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Well, I think that perfect storm scenario could be the migration from currencies to cryptos. I mean if the strains keep popping, thing keep getting out of hand with politics and turmoil keeps growing as a raging river, the shift could come faster than expected as corporations will take the advantage to secure their positions with cryptos. But that's just more speculation. Fear is the driving force in human behavior and we are still "in charge" of some of the things that happen regarding economy. But we shall see. I bet many sites are just trying to scare people out because some corporations just want to amass as many Bitcoins as they can. I would do the same if I could. I mean with those prices ROI looks incredible as an investment. But we shall what happens.

This year promises to be even more crazy than last one.

Well, I think that perfect storm scenario could be the migration from currencies to cryptos.

The setup of the perfect storm enables the move. When things get rough, people look for higher ground.

And yes, they are stacking. The FUD drives those new to the market out cheaper than they bought in so that those who bought earlier can get double gains.

And yes, they are stacking. The FUD drives those new to the market out cheaper than they bought in so that those who bought earlier can get double gains.

I think it is safe to say that as in politics, there's no fair game in economics.

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I would like to make a comment with words and technical terms but the truth is not my style and I do not know much about that subject.

But in particular, I would like to comment on the mistrust that humanity lives before the system and the chaos that it has generated in the last 6 or 8 months.

Which has a large part of the world worried, not only about COVID but also about the economy and that constant barrage of bad and bad news that never seems to end.

If I'm honest with you and I say it from the bottom of my heart, all this is so organized and practically studied to attack society at a level that has created mistrust in ourselves that we are not aware of what It really happens, in my last post I talked about how freedom of expression is like an Atomic Bomb and that if it is used incorrectly it can cause a collective disaster.

The same happens when false information or negative information, such as bad news reaches each of us.

They generate a discomfort that fills us with anxiety and we do not know as a leader with it.

Unfortunately, we see this type of thing more common and we only have to wait for the storm to pass to be able to see the disaster that remained and work on the construction and recovery of this society that is attacked every day from all sides.

This is definitely planned, but maybe not coordinated. The way the information spreads means that alignment can happen even if there isn't collusion - it is a beautiful and terrible design, as it allows for the results intended, but leaves very little paper trail of definitive blame.

Very true dear friend!

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I am not so concerned with how the markets will respond, to get an Idea of market response how did the Venezuelan markets fear after their last election? I see what is taking place here in America could a Venezuela version 2.0.

I try to not be to involved in the keeping up with the politics, but I can see the Main Stream media trying to distract people with one of their favorite boogieman and that is Nicaragua. It has been mentioned a little bit in MST and growing mentions, this I feel is to distract try and distract from the happening on twitter, FB, YT, AppleStore, Amazon web service and the general shut down of small independent groups and people.

So I have been trying to ignore much of it, there really is nothing that can be done other than to find find alternative choices, and I pretty much have with Hive and media types attached to it like 3speak, and other short and long form media postings. My wife tried to watch Trumps Alamo speech the other day on NTD news and RSBN, and they were both constant buffering, she gave up and watched on a persons YT sight that was live streaming it off her TV from Texas with no problems.

To much FUD/FOMO and other things just to distract people, so I have been trying to intentionally ignore it all.

The problem I think isn't for the individual to find a better media, it is that the masses don't. Unfortunately, our lives are more affected by the behavior of the masses than that of individuals, at least at the cultural and societal levels. There is a lot of stupid out there at the moment and I am not sure if it is going to change anytime soon.

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This is a great article!

But, I feel that with these various streams, there is a unifying trend that binds them together to create some kind of perfect storm scenario that could very well be the biggest opportunity for crypto adoption ever.

People are looking for "safe" places to put their money because of the fear of inflation. With rising prices in every one of the asset classes including bonds, real estate, stocks, gold, commodities, and even oil--people are finally starting to wonder out loud if every asset is in a bubble?

Given that this rally was driven by increases liquidity through the central bank and some of it through stimulus packages via congress people are also fearing inflation, so cash is not safe either. "Cash is Trash"

The problem is that people came to Bitcoin later than all of these other assets classes which makes me question if its because they trust Bitcoin the least? Are they coming to Bitcoin because its the only thing left to grab onto or is it that people are trusting Bitcoin because Bitcoin is "trustless".

In the dollar it says "In God we Trust". There is a picture of an eagle holding onto to arrows in one talon and and olive branches in the other. It implies that the backing of the military and diplomacy of the United States is all in service of the dollar. The counterfeiting of money is actually investigated by the Secret Service. Not the treasury, the IRS, the FBI, or the Federal Reserve Bank. The same people that protect the President of the United States with their lives also serve to protect the "trust" of the money supply.

All of this points to me how fragile the dollar is and how fragile trust is. Maybe we do need a "trustless" currency. Something that is transparent, unhackable, distributed, and decentralized. Something that is not back by "God", military might, diplomacy, or the President's bodyguards.

"In the Algorithm we Trust"

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I think that they don't trust Bitcoin, but they are starting to as they recognize that there is power in the ownership of the wallet address. A lot of people think that owning crypto is owning nothing - without realizing that owning shares is owning nothing as there is no personal or direct control, it is all trust in people who shouldn't be trusted. It is hard for the average person to get their head around, even if they are above average.

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When HSBC and other banks cancel Trump's accounts they are telling all their customers that their money is not safe.
When Big Tech censors The President, they are telling everyone that its is not safe to invest time, energy or money in building followings on their platforms.

People aren't stupid but they are often lazy or too busy to change.

The Purge is a huge forcing function towards alternative financial and speech platforms.

I agree with them banning Trump on Twitter/ FB if they think he is bad for their platform - because it is their platform. There is the "while under my roof" rules.

This of course highlights that the platforms we have populated are flawed by design to ever be vehicles for free speech or security of economy. This is a good awakening for a larger portion of the masses.

Except that it is illegal for commercial competitors to collude to ban or restrict supply to other commercial competitors (Trump is a commercial competitor in online advertising because he buys ads, as is Parler etc etc).

This is criminal, go to gaol, cartel conduct.

I understand this side of it. I think there are several more cases going up against this too. One of the problems with not owning the infrastructure of the internet, is it being commandeered on the second-layer.

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I think I have something like that feeling as I'm currently looking at ionomy again and really not enjoying it xD

Is there some volume there now?

No idea I"m literally just looking at it (haven't even got around to clicking the signup link) and the only reason I'm looking at it is because I got told there was no KYC (but might be now or they're leaving themselves open to the possibility as all the kyc stuff seems to be stuff they said they will/might ask for in the tos).

I haven't looked in to it, but I think they didn't have KYC earlier.

No, time to trust only yourself. Everything has been sped up, the streams have suddenly come together, it's happening now.

Interesting as always!

I think that trusting oneself might be part of the problem, when people trust that what they believe is correct, without recognizing that their belief system itself is not theirs.

Good point. Those people have lost touch with their own abilities to think. I call them zombies. They terrify me.

2020 - tension
2021 - ascension

Interesting thought, the untrustworthy needing trustless systems..the irony, but quite understandable, when you routinely take advantage of everyone else's trust, you definitely can't trust anyone else

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You can trust an addict to behave a certain way, so you can't be upset if you enable them to continue. Trust is the same, if someone is untrustworthy, you change your behavior and create systems that do not require you to trust them.

I think that many of the FUD spreaders want to protect their old established systems and riches and so BTC is a real threat to that.

there may not be the volume

I love such expert statements, from people who have only a superficial understanding of the issue ... Although, he himself is far from sinless:)

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I just made a comment in another post about those headlines. Such a joke. I think we are going to see a lot of uncertainty for at least the next two months. I have zero doubts, but as you said the unstable world we live in is going to influence things that we probably haven't even considered yet.

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