For someone who can barely swim, I love the sea. I am not sure whether it is the vast expanse, the unknown depths or the power, but it pulls me in. Maybe, it is my sense of helplessness in its presence, the lack of control I have over it and my ability to survive within it that is so compelling. Maybe, freedom is found in helplessness, when there is nothing left to be done, no move to make.
I hate feeling helpless.
Over the last couple days, I have Barely touched base on crypto, yet it was still close to my thoughts along the way, as at every turn, there were mental triggers. There was a chain hanging as a fence and the first thing that came to mind, was to take a photo for a post. At dinner, I overheard two guys behind me discussing their portfolios.
Shitcoiners.
What is a shitcoin these days? It used to be related to market cap, but looking through the top 100, there are a lot of useless coins with high market caps - will they last?
Last what?
This is what we have to work out for the future - what is lasting - because if all it comes down to is price, then they are all fucked, because eventually, price fails because it is driven by hype and sentiment alone. Without fundamentals, something else will drive hype and because the return drops, sentiment fails too. There has to be more.
Even the people who bought a Tesla before release, expected to take delivery of a car one day and, I think that real investors expect the same from a crypto project. They need a product of some kind, a good, service - an earning usecase that is compelling enough to attract and retain users.
The understanding on "what is valuable" is going to be an increasing and developing conversation in the future, because investors and consumers at all levels are going to start running into issues - There is nothing of value left to own and that means, creating something worth owning.
Crypto is doing this already.
Of course, many of the people outside of crypto are yet to believe in what is happening, but those inside are already changing their thinking on what is considered an asset, what is tradeable, what is worth using. The new real estate is digital, because so many people have been priced out of the physical world and, it is only getting worse.
The income to cost ratio for homebuyers is the worst it has been in many places around the world and there is no sign the wages are going to catch up to base inflation, let alone make inroads into ownership models. As a result, consumers over the last decades have been increasing their spending on non-return consumables, like electronics, cars and holidays, with more and more people finding themselves short at the end of the month or, living hand to mouth.
I was reading that while 70% of Australians are ahead on their mortgage currently, that means that 30% are not and with raising interest rates, how many of them will end up defaulting? How many need to default to crash the housing market?
In another study, it came out that 60% of loan applicants at one of the large banks were encouraged to lie about their financial conditions to secure a loan. How much junk is out there? Raise interest rates a bit and we are going to find out quick smart - as the inflation rate in combination means many people are going to be unable to afford the basics in life and will eventually fold their hand.
Feeling helpless?
I suspect that there are many people out there who in the pursuit of their dream home or even a foot in the real estate door, have over extended themselves and are getting pretty stressed about the direction things are travelling. How long can they hold out for under tough economic times? A month, three months? a year? Downturns tend to be multiple years long and it could take a decade to get back to zero - that is a long time and far too much for most people to survive.
It scares me too.
I am only 2 years in on the current loan, but at least for my wife and I we have added some value to the house and, we went in with a bit of collateral also - so we should be okay. On top of this, our loan is collared for another 8 or 9 years at a low-ish interest rate, which will help under financial duress. But, nothing is certain and under economic downturn, there is no guarantee either of us will keep our jobs.
If the worst were to happen, how fast will we pivot and simplify our financial lives, moving into a far cheaper home? How long would we try and hold on for in the hope to ride it out?
I am a holder.
That is a scary proposition.
But, I am not helpless yet and despite the uncertainty of crypto and the world in general, I am still able to act to try and mitigate damage and if very successful, take advantage of opportunities as they arise. This is the thing with downturns - disaster for those without, opportunity for those with. I have always been without - will it be the same the next time round?
I hope not.
I am tired of being washed out to sea, struggling to keep my head above water. Have to learn how to swim at some point.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
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There are too many young couples that are over leveraged into their home loans and then car loans on top.
Don’t get me started on all of the movie streaming subscriptions they are paying as well.
Yeah it is insane.
In the report thing I read, they were told by the loan manager that if they wanted a loan, they'd have to lie. Sad state of economic affairs globally.
They definitely don't know what they are missing with the impact of Crypto and what it have to offer.
It is hard to believe in what they think doesn't exist :)
I liken shittcoins to virus. They are created swiftly.
I everyday hear those discussions, buy-sell (I know they don't know what they buy or sell)
Indeed, getting worse. The value of fiats has been decreasing and we can't buy a house or a car as before. There is a big gap between how much earn and how much we spend. It is going to be like that we will be able to meet only our basic needs in the near future.
This gap is going to lead to a lot of issues. The rich think they are "winning" but when the entire world becomes a violent warzone, they might think differently.
Maybe when the last tree is cut down...
😅😅 Yeah, you should learn how to swim soon and come teach me too (I love the sea too) 😉
Shitcoins are surely fucked up if it all goes down to their prices as those prices fluctuate anytime and we never know when they would go deeper than dip with no plans of coming up again.
A lot are hopeless like you but I think a lot are like you finding a way out of it... To learn how to swim 😆
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You can't swim either?
I am trying to get out of this debt cycle - though no one gets out alive
Hahaha you're getting out alive 😅
I thought everyone could swim these days? I was taught at 10 and you never lose the skill once learned.
I am the odd goose out. Most Australians are decent swimmers, but my mother actually encouraged us not to learn because she was afraid of us drowning. Mother logic right there.
..or being eaten by a Great White?
I’m hoping for similar results in this cycle. Having the ability to jump at opportunities as they present themselves, cautiously of course.
Shitcoiners will always shit, there’s people in a discord I read and they are hyping all kinds of stuff and it’s like wtf it’s all rug pulls lol
Discord is insane for the shite hype, which is why I stay out of those groups :)
Yeah I stay away from most but this one is a podcast I like for other things and he dabbles in crypto too so it's not exclusive shitcoiners.
I find that so many people get sucked in on Discord - but they don't tend to be the people who have much.
Yeah lol I get at least one or two spam discord PM's a week offering some shitcoin to moon me. Sadly it comes all from the Splinterlands discord! Not shocking I think there's many thousands of people in that one so bound to be people lurking.
Well I take solace in the fact that life itself is filled with downturns...and upturns. Therefore, regardless of the situation, we just have to keep seeking out and taking advantage of opportunities as you said
I wonder if there is a life account where after we die, we get to search and see how it balanced. More ups, or downs?
In the midst of the global economic downturn, everyone in the world feels the same as your description.
All seemed to be drifting into the sea, but some had life jackets on their backs, some just held plastic balloons, some just kept their heads above the water, some had choked because their throats were full of water and some had drowned without help.
Having the courage to descend into the world of cryptocurrencies, like we dare to jump into the sea with a buoy on our back, we are only "asked" to wait for luck when a rescue team comes dressed in sexy bikinis.
But, when we're without cryptocurrency, we're just like swimmers jumping into the ocean—not a swimming pool. After a long time they run out of energy because the sea has a current that attracts them. When will the rescue team arrive? Nobody knows, right?
Cryptocurrency is possible by all means, but we have to be in it to get ready. You're right Mr. @tarazkp. We just need to swim or paddle a little, waiting for the time to come.
Would love more "saved in bikinis" to be happening, but I don't look great in a bikini myself.
Turns out you have a great sense of humor, ha..ha..
The way your writing defines you, I'm pretty sure, you will get your desired shore.
I wonder if there is a safe harbor that is always safe.
I believe there is @coinfactor, in our saying, it's just an ocean of fire that one needs to cross to get there. Now it is not an easy job to cross an ocean of fire 🙂
I could call a lot of coin on the coinmarketcap shit coins especially since so many of them are not even up to $1 but then, what happens if they have a use case like DOGE coin being used for payments at groceries.
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Any crypto can be used for payments, that is not a usecase in my opinion.
I hate feeling helpless too. I've never face such situation and don't want to experience too.
Nice post, its good to now what you're talking about here
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