NY, London, Chicago, SF...all going the same direction.
The question is how will these cities fare going forward? Many presume they will bounce back since that is what cities always do. I am not so sure.
Do you think there could be long term shifts that doom them for a long time?
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Guess they will just need to increase the taxes of those left there which will cause an even greater exodus of those that can afford it. Then only the poor will remain.
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That is something that seems to be happening. The bulk of it falls to the middle class. As the higher income people leave, the budget needs to be sated. Those are the ones who are hit with higher taxes.
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Probably for a few years at least. I think people will move back there eventually but it will depend on the state of the city by then.
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Couple this with the defund the police movement and these cities are in trouble for at least the next couple decades. I agree, at some point people will move back. Location is still location and the centralization of these metro areas will continue to hold a lot of value for social and sports venues. But for living and working....? They are completely destroying the property values over the short to mid term. The rich will get richer as they swoop in and pick up cheap and depressed properties they can afford to hold onto for a while, while the poor get poorer trying to keep up with the taxes these cities inflict on them for amenities and protections the cities defund in their efforts to continue to buy votes. Pathetic.
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If they are willing to hold that real estate for a couple decades until the people return.
Of course, there are a lot of US cities that were once great and now are shitholes.
Baltimore and Detroit are two that come to mind. Will some of the others follow suit.
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This reminds me of the commercial real estate market in New York because most of the mortgages and loans are signed by a group of debtors. They prefer to have a building empty than to decrease rent because it would mean they have to get approval of all the loaners.
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From what I read is that companies are not defaulting on their rents but the sublet market is seeing a huge amount of volume put up.
That means companies are still paying yet they are not using the space. We are about 14 months into this thing. Since companies operate, typically, on 5 year leases, that means 20% of the space will come up on average a year. I wonder how many are starting to really buy into the idea and just giving up the space or downsizing?
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Yea downsizing seems like the best option and then buy back in when it is cheaper.
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At this point I have given up on the police in the big cities. If the people want to vote people in that want to defund the police then let them suffer the consequences and learn that police is needed. I believe there was a state or city that abolished their police only to spend more money to buy them back after crime skyrocketed.
I am firmly in the belief that police needs reform but that does not mean defunding them. But if people can't think things through properly then let them suffer and realize that it is still necessary in the big cities.
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I agree with you. My view is that there are a lot of cities that are going to end up like Detroit, Baltimore, Newark, Camden, and Cleveland. Many of these were once great, if not at least productive cities, that are now shitholes.
We might be seeing that from some of the bigger ones.
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We have a TON of people from New York City that have moved here they say because ofthe lower crime (they brought more with them) and the lower housing costs (not any more, owners have gotten wise to that are are jacking up all the rents).
We are now a mini version of the wild west with shootings, violent muggings as we are dangerously close to Philly and NY. I almost wish we were 500 miles due west, so that we'd be too far outside their orbit.
One thing that shocks them is that here they put your photo and block address in the crime section when you're arrested. We also have no problem showing up to testify against them in court. They'ren always surprised about that. Our prison is filled with big-city people who don't know how to live in a small town.
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Yep. And they also bring their voting habits with them. They flee the area then vote in the same policies.
As Ron White Says, you cant fix stupid.
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