More than 440 financial firms have moved some operations to the EU, resulting in about 7,400 job relocations and a 900 billion-pound ($1.2 trillion) shift of assets.
It looks like the media is finally starting to report the fall out of the lock downs.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-05-08/lockdowns-leave-london-broken
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The world is changing so quickly especially in the world of finance.
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Yea I am wondering how it will affect the landscape in the rest of the world. The funds will move elsewhere and I am hopeful it will move partway into crypto.
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NY, London, Chicago, SF...all going the same direction.
The question is how will these cities fare going forward? Many presume they will bounce back since that is what cities always do. I am not so sure.
Do you think there could be long term shifts that doom them for a long time?
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Guess they will just need to increase the taxes of those left there which will cause an even greater exodus of those that can afford it. Then only the poor will remain.
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That is something that seems to be happening. The bulk of it falls to the middle class. As the higher income people leave, the budget needs to be sated. Those are the ones who are hit with higher taxes.
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Probably for a few years at least. I think people will move back there eventually but it will depend on the state of the city by then.
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Couple this with the defund the police movement and these cities are in trouble for at least the next couple decades. I agree, at some point people will move back. Location is still location and the centralization of these metro areas will continue to hold a lot of value for social and sports venues. But for living and working....? They are completely destroying the property values over the short to mid term. The rich will get richer as they swoop in and pick up cheap and depressed properties they can afford to hold onto for a while, while the poor get poorer trying to keep up with the taxes these cities inflict on them for amenities and protections the cities defund in their efforts to continue to buy votes. Pathetic.
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If they are willing to hold that real estate for a couple decades until the people return.
Of course, there are a lot of US cities that were once great and now are shitholes.
Baltimore and Detroit are two that come to mind. Will some of the others follow suit.
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This reminds me of the commercial real estate market in New York because most of the mortgages and loans are signed by a group of debtors. They prefer to have a building empty than to decrease rent because it would mean they have to get approval of all the loaners.
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From what I read is that companies are not defaulting on their rents but the sublet market is seeing a huge amount of volume put up.
That means companies are still paying yet they are not using the space. We are about 14 months into this thing. Since companies operate, typically, on 5 year leases, that means 20% of the space will come up on average a year. I wonder how many are starting to really buy into the idea and just giving up the space or downsizing?
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Yea downsizing seems like the best option and then buy back in when it is cheaper.
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At this point I have given up on the police in the big cities. If the people want to vote people in that want to defund the police then let them suffer the consequences and learn that police is needed. I believe there was a state or city that abolished their police only to spend more money to buy them back after crime skyrocketed.
I am firmly in the belief that police needs reform but that does not mean defunding them. But if people can't think things through properly then let them suffer and realize that it is still necessary in the big cities.
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I agree with you. My view is that there are a lot of cities that are going to end up like Detroit, Baltimore, Newark, Camden, and Cleveland. Many of these were once great, if not at least productive cities, that are now shitholes.
We might be seeing that from some of the bigger ones.
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We have a TON of people from New York City that have moved here they say because ofthe lower crime (they brought more with them) and the lower housing costs (not any more, owners have gotten wise to that are are jacking up all the rents).
We are now a mini version of the wild west with shootings, violent muggings as we are dangerously close to Philly and NY. I almost wish we were 500 miles due west, so that we'd be too far outside their orbit.
One thing that shocks them is that here they put your photo and block address in the crime section when you're arrested. We also have no problem showing up to testify against them in court. They'ren always surprised about that. Our prison is filled with big-city people who don't know how to live in a small town.
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Yep. And they also bring their voting habits with them. They flee the area then vote in the same policies.
As Ron White Says, you cant fix stupid.
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they shifted because of lockdown but now in UK there is no lockdown right? Once lockdown is over completely then are they going to come back?
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I don't know but the after effects of the lockdowns will not change. The life style of people have changed and they realized they can get more done digitally so I don't think all of them will come back.
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I agree with you that things will never come back like before and there is certainly a change in lifestyle.
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I would say the UK is screwed, especially London. It is another overpriced city that is going to suffer the consequences.
One advantage in the UK is that I dont know the land situation. In the US we have plenty of it meaning there are a lot of placed for people to move. This is something that technology and the work from home idea is going to bring to the forefront.
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The UK has gone through a tough time for sure because of covid. I agree with what you said about the US and UK difference in terms of place and space.
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Looking at the map, I think our country is just about the right size which helped fuel massive growth in the last century. I was reading that Russia for instance, has problems shipping items from the populous west to the more sparsley populated east. If the US were the size of South Korea, we'd face limits on exports as we might not be large enough to have the resources for it.
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If the US was the size of South Korea, that would make it one big city with 320 million people stacked on top of each other.
Resources are becoming more abundant as technology progresses. That is what is cool about things such as vertical farming, 3-D printing, and other technologies that are decentralizing things. It removes the hassle of having to move products especially food, around. Plus with the ability to do things online through crypto, we are going to see a lot of things change in the workplace.
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