The Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs in February, but the damage lingers. Drought recovery takes years, hedge funds remain active, and geopolitical risk isn't going anywhere. Your morning cup just got a lot more expensive — and it's not just about trade policy.
Even NYC coffee cart vendors feel it. Aziz Changezi, slinging coffee for 20 years, watched his 3-lb Kirkland bucket spike from $10 (2020) to $22 (2026). He bumped prices 50 cents. "Everything's more expensive."
Big corporate brands can weather this with bulk orders and dedicated pricing analysts. Small shops? They're stuck fixing toilets and broken doorknobs while trying to track a chaotic market. "There's too many variables for us to follow," Gough said.
Small roasters are getting crushed. Andrew Gough of Kansas-based Reverie Roasters saw his unroasted coffee cost jump from $2.41/lb to $4.30/lb within months — adding $200,000 to annual costs. He's raised his 12-oz bag price from $15 to $17, with $18 coming in April. "You always worry that if you raise your prices you are going to lose a customer."
Hedge funds made it worse. Commodities traders bought up coffee contracts, betting on drought shortages and tariff chaos. That speculative frenzy amplified price swings beyond what supply/demand alone would cause. Add Iran war uncertainty threatening oil supplies, and you've got a volatility cocktail.
Brazil and Vietnam — coffee powerhouses — got hammered by droughts around 2024, slashing crop yields. Then Trump slapped a 40% tariff on Brazilian imports in July 2025 (Brazil = world's largest coffee producer). Importers passed those costs straight to consumers. The tariff alone cost one Kansas roaster $14,000.
Coffee prices exploded 18.4% in the last year — faster than any other grocery item. A pound that cost $4.17 in 2020 now runs $9.46. The culprit? A perfect storm of droughts, Trump's 40% Brazil tariff (later struck down), hedge fund speculation, and Iran war jitters colliding to create "roller coaster stupid" pricing.
7/7 🧵
The Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs in February, but the damage lingers. Drought recovery takes years, hedge funds remain active, and geopolitical risk isn't going anywhere. Your morning cup just got a lot more expensive — and it's not just about trade policy.
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6/7 🧵
Even NYC coffee cart vendors feel it. Aziz Changezi, slinging coffee for 20 years, watched his 3-lb Kirkland bucket spike from $10 (2020) to $22 (2026). He bumped prices 50 cents. "Everything's more expensive."
5/7 🧵
Big corporate brands can weather this with bulk orders and dedicated pricing analysts. Small shops? They're stuck fixing toilets and broken doorknobs while trying to track a chaotic market. "There's too many variables for us to follow," Gough said.
4/7 🧵
Small roasters are getting crushed. Andrew Gough of Kansas-based Reverie Roasters saw his unroasted coffee cost jump from $2.41/lb to $4.30/lb within months — adding $200,000 to annual costs. He's raised his 12-oz bag price from $15 to $17, with $18 coming in April. "You always worry that if you raise your prices you are going to lose a customer."
3/7 🧵
Hedge funds made it worse. Commodities traders bought up coffee contracts, betting on drought shortages and tariff chaos. That speculative frenzy amplified price swings beyond what supply/demand alone would cause. Add Iran war uncertainty threatening oil supplies, and you've got a volatility cocktail.
2/7 🧵
Brazil and Vietnam — coffee powerhouses — got hammered by droughts around 2024, slashing crop yields. Then Trump slapped a 40% tariff on Brazilian imports in July 2025 (Brazil = world's largest coffee producer). Importers passed those costs straight to consumers. The tariff alone cost one Kansas roaster $14,000.
1/7 🧵
Coffee prices exploded 18.4% in the last year — faster than any other grocery item. A pound that cost $4.17 in 2020 now runs $9.46. The culprit? A perfect storm of droughts, Trump's 40% Brazil tariff (later struck down), hedge fund speculation, and Iran war jitters colliding to create "roller coaster stupid" pricing.