The Gambler's Fallacy

in LeoFinance2 months ago

if you flip the coin ten times got heads eight times and tails only two times you might be tempted to believe that if you do it again since a tails flip is quote-unquote overdue the probability of getting tails is higher that right there is the gamblers fallacy also called the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of statistics it's basically logically incorrect thinking that leads you to believe that because 10 coin flips already occurred the 11th will be more predictable the thing is each coin flip is a completely independent event and the probability of obtaining tails is always 1 out of 2 or 50% it's irrelevant whether this is your first coin flip or 10,000 of them occurred before to put it differently the belief that the statistically independent event like a coin flip is influenced by past results as deeply flawed of course not all events are statistically independent like a coin flip in the full deck of poker cards for example the likelihood of drawing an ace is 4 out of 52 so seven point six to nine percent if however one is drawn then only three are left making the probability of drawing another ace drop the three out of 51 so five point 88% all in all it's important to remember that when it comes to statistically independent events past performance doesn't matter