Portfolio down, sales up?
If you are like me - stuck with a 95%+ portfolio loss overall, despite holding a "diverse" portfolio - then congratulations, you have completed the first phase of the max pain trade. So why not sell now? Well, if you haven't, then you probably know about the second phase of the max pain trade: a recovering portfolio that you have sold off.
Yes, I am actually still trying to avoid the potential pain that might come from seeing my sold off portfolio recover. At this point I definitely feel I only have a bit of delusional hope left, but again, could you imagine seeing a recovery and having actually sold? I reckon that pain may be more painful than selling a -99% portfolio. But then again, there is probably some peace that comes from not having to worry about anything related to market developments again. At times I came close to executing such a trade, but at least on Hive we have a 13 week power down that prevents such bold action.
The Typical R.I.P. Chart
While this chart is showing SPS, the main price movement has been very consistent across the board and the insights here can be more or less extended to many ALT coins. What we have here is a ~5 year bear market in which a coin or token generally has sold off by 90-99%. Some coins do not even really show a consolidation phase (which has yet to be confirmed) and have just continued downward. In any case, it looks bleak, and it is often in these times when we lose patience and do "something stupid".
Of course the only really stupid thing everyone has done holding such a coin or portfolio is not having have sold. But here we are. So I guess they question is if price action could actually turn positive again for the foreseeable future. It doesn't seem outrageous to imagine the steep slopes of death reverse somewhat and go into a "U shaped recovery".
I have argued that we might be in for a ~3 year long ALT rally that could peak in late 2028. With the 4 year halving event also set in 2028, a delayed peak is something we have often seen for the crypto cycle. But even if we should see some sort of long term reversal and recovery, there is no doubt that the type of recovery will heavily depend on the project itself. I wonder how many will actually get a new ATH or "only" do a 10x and still be under water.
Conclusion
If you are still riding along, you have probably had a bad time. there is no sugar coating it. But selling now could be the ultimate mistake - and I am not ready to do it. Besides, the absolute value of the majority of portfolios is probably quite low to begin with.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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so we all are becoming a bunch of bagholders now?
seems like it... There is valid uncertainty about whether we'll ever get an ALT season again I believe. Maybe it was just a fad?
It seems the worst possible time to sell! I, fortunately, had quite a bit stashed in HBD which helped my bottom line considerably. For the past few months, I've been converting some of that into hive. But this month I can't figure it out. I used to be able to just convert HBD to Hive in my hive wallet, used to be easy peasy, with a 3 day waiting period. Now I am sent to a side chain market. Could you help me figure that out? I am baffled. Or direct me to someone who can help me?
This is due to the hair cut rule which comes into effect at 20% debt levels I believe. Since Hives price is so low the debt from HBD is currently at around 25% or so. We are now unable to convert HBD into Hive as a precaution until there is either less HBD in circulation or Hives price recovers in order to keep debt levels in check. I think once we get back over 10 cents things should be back to normal again. You can still sell your HBD on the internal market, however.
Thank you so much!
so there's no way I can convert HBD to HP? I was looking forward to increasing my upvote value! What is the good to hive of my selling it over staking it in a different place?
Well you can buy hive and then power up I guess
If SPS reach 10 cents it would be great
I'm just buying $20 of SPS fairly regularly, keep staking and well, we'll see what we see. I'm not holding my breath, but SPS earns me more SPS (and glint/vouchers). I play the game daily, so I view it as hobby money.
I'm not the smartest guy about, maybe I'm throwing good money after bad you'll say, but I enjoy the game, so, it's it's own reward.
I have found a fun little project from a Dev I have been following for a while now, he seems like a trustworthy bloke, but of course he will be prone to making mistakes etc. He has an idle clicker on BNB ( https://landlordusdt.fun/?ref=0xb4eB69168608A467C40fcda572610682B40DED1b ) I've put $200 in and I'm earning $16 a day for now, in I've a week to go to make my stake back, then I have daily $ to buy SPL assets, it won't last forever, but if I get my stake back (and I'm sure I will), any extra will go into either SPS, DEC or land cards
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I am hoping the trajectory would be upward