true, the market and macro situation is always changing. The main idea here is that patterns repeat in a similar enough way to make somewhat sensible predictions. So far it has worked very well; but of course that is not a guarantee for the future. What jumped at me when I looked at the market from the perspective of the second chart was that it was simply much too early for the market to already top out in the next months.
30k could be the bottom, but prices have generally gone back down to the support line. Together with the previous top of 20k I think that the lows could be at around 20-23k. This would also mean that there would be a sideways movement until about fall/winter