Have a plan...stick to it!
DON'T GET SCHIZO (Do not chase shiny new things or big pumps)
DYOR
PYE (plan your Exit) from the start
But most of all keep learning from your F UPs
For those who read me frequently, you already know I have a plan. The way things are going now I expect to be 80% out of ALTs by Dec 2024 and 99% by March 2025.
I have my sell levels all planned and set, basically at 2X 4X 8X, and 10X.
Some minor holdings on 6X and 10X.
Those that are not sold by Jan 2025 will be adjusted. This all means that I expect a 5X minimum on my current portfolio, but I am willing to adjust those levels to the upside if needed.
Needed = if 5X comes by Aug and not Dec.
Change In Plans
Where I used to buy everything that sounded good throughout the bull market I will now stop buying after the halving and only buy between May & Sep if we drop >25%.
Hence no schizo jumping from one coin to the next one, not chasing pumps or shiny new unicoins.
Unicoins
Unicoins are the shiny new coins that come on the market when the bull run is in full swing, these coins look great, get lots of attention, and therefore will pump but they do not have time to reach their full pump potential.
Secondly, they are bought on a bull prize, meaning there is little up and a lot of downside.
So yes they might fly, but the risk is too high and the return on investment will be medium. Hence, no Unicoins for me.
My Mistake
I noticed that my previous bull run tactics of doing quite a bit of swingtrading is not working this time.
It´s not even Altszn, but my alts do not drop 15-30% within 2 weeks after a pump. Hence I sell on a 30% pump, but have a hard time repurchasing them at a reasonable discount >10%.
The market is just not having the dips I was used to. So again I need to adjust, no swingtrading while the market is up only.
Of course, a bit of selling on the way up is not a problem. Taking profit is not dirty, it´s good because there will be a dip and I need dry powder to buy it....if it happens before Sep 2024.
Now I noticed another, minor mistake.
I had outstanding sell orders from my bear market mindset days. No matter how hard those bearfluencers keep calling for a 30K BTC it will not happen. 30K might be the new bear market bottom ......in 2027 but not now, and not in 2025.
All PermaBears are lost, they did not buy the bottom and will make no life-changing money, fortunately, all reasonable bears have turned bullish.
The macro and market are just not ready for the negativity while a supply crash is imminent in 6 months max, especially after the halving.
On top of that China is printing, EU will be printing,US is bailing out banks again and will have to accept mandatory rate cuts.
Oh and on top of that, we will see Middle Eastern countries buying BTC, so no it's not all driven by BTC ETF being larger than life.
Hence I checked all my sell orders and adjusted those that were leftovers from my bear market PT$$.
New Direction
I do not have a crystal ball, but I know this time is not anything like the previous runs. So I will be extra careful, and reducing my expectation on the bull run timeline to a max of 300 days after halving....to be adjusted if needed.
My exit is planned, not set in stone but set in wood allowing some room for change. Because in all honesty. I can´t wait to get out. I have been working hard getting on top of this game for almost 5 years, and I love it.
But I want to take profit. Make life-changing steps and then let the bears do what they do best, tare the show down. I will keep an eye on the market, I know where I expect the bottom to be. I will not buy ALTs till bBTC is declared dead again, around 30K.
Now I don´t think next bull run will have the returns I expect to see this time around, but that does not mean there is no money to be made and after 18 months of bear and me laying back looking at the market I probably can´t wait to jump in again.
But for now, I would love 2025 to be the year I don't give a fluff about crypto because I got out with what I planned.
And yes it´s not only crypto, I plan to take a break in general. It´s been a crazy 5 years going from debt to having a diverse portfolio. From owning money to others to owning Silver, Gold, Stocks, BTC, real estate, and a positive balance on my bank account and no Credit Card Debts...... even better no debts except for a mortgage. And even that I could actually pay right now if I needed to.
Bikini Bottom Line
I have a plan.
I have had a plan for the last 5 years and I am making it a 7 year plan. In those seven years, I will have my financial situation turned around 360 degrees.
I played and enjoyed the game and I hope to do so for the full seven years, but after 7 years I deserve a break to enjoy what I accomplished and I will get out and be out.
I worked hard and it feels wonderful not to worry about unexpected expenses. To be able to pay a bit extra to save yourself a lot of time. And the best is the ability to give to others that have less but are honest and work hard.
No worries, if I say I get out I will keep playing the Increase My Health and Walth game, I will stick to saving money where I can and investing it in anything but fiat.
But I will get out, I will take a year away from finance to relax and plan the next leg up.
Can/Will I truly do that?
IDK but hey...a baby can dream, it gives me the energy to go all in through one awesome bull market first.
Thank goodness you made it till the end Pees, Love and I am out of here!
[Source Pic](All pics by MYI & AI unless watermarked or mentioned)
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So many bullish indicators, that is what gave me stacking fomo all of last year. I dont think I will get out though, just hang about in crypto and ride the next wave up and down and see where it takes me!
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I dont want that wave down again..... I felt like such a baby...
I really want to watch the market go down, relax holding a Cuba libre, calculate the near bottom, and then happily get back in after my sabbatical.
I 4 sure keep writing but I just don´t want to be spending multiple hours a day on macro economics, crypto moves and all that other fun stuff for a year or maybe 18 months.
Maybe I just need a holiday !LOLZ thanks for picking my endgame plan!
Yeah,it's an emotional rollercoaster I can imagine. I'm not confident to trade BTC this cycle with the current market conditions. It can re-evaluate at a much higher number lol
I am really confused about BTC I did my calculations and 150k is the max based on historic data, and diminishing returns.....but this ETF and the adoption it might drive changes the game. That plus the in debt dollar losing strength as a global currency.... I decided to keep my 0.2 BTC and sell everything else, planning to buy another 0.2 at 30K BTC in 2027 but that day might never come
Seems a smart move, although I guessing 60-70k for a bottom this time worst case. Probably be higher depending on how this year plays out.
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I'm really glad that I never got into all of the day trading and trying to catch the highs and lows. I think I would have went mad a long time ago.
This time or at least this period I hardly do it myself as there is just too much upside or too few dips, but it worked well for me last run. I did not miss many buy back options but still too many to make it interresting.
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