Something many may not be aware of is that hive's inflation is constantly decreasing.
This year has actually been kind of special as it's the second year where new hive being printed is decreasing yearly and this year by a lot more compared to 2024.
Every 250,000 blocks, inflation drops by 0.01%. Each block takes around 3 seconds and according to Google 250k blocks is 2.894 days - as long as witnesses don't miss any blocks that is!
Anyway, to make things easy, let's ignore hive/hbd conversions and let's say by 2035 when inflation drops to 0.95% we have a nice even number of 1 billion hive coins in total supply. With inflation staying at 0.95% that of course means that every year after 2035 hive becomes inflationary again. Because if we print 9.5 million hive in 2035 (0.95% of 1 billion coins), then the year after we of course print some extra because now it's 0.95% of 1 billion and 95 million coins.
So now you can kind of estimate your yearly earnings based on how much HP you have then and based on how much is powered up.
Personally I'd want to sit on a nice stack of 5 million hive power at least by 2035. 5 out of 1000 million means I'd have 0.5% of the existing supply and earn at least 0.5% of 95m Hive per year by then. Although I fully expect liquid hive will always exist to a high degree and being used in different ways although I hope there's more usecases and value in staying staked by then.
Wishfully I'd want around 20 million Hive by then, if other coins like btc, eth and others were to go crazy, although they'd have to go really crazy as I don't have much of them - it'd be nice to turn some of that back into hive at a reasonable price.
Anyway, still got a long way to go and a lot to build so it's mostly just wishful thinking for now but I'm hoping to at least reach my realistic goal in a decade.
What are your goals in 10 years?
I just ran a quick compound interest calc of 12% a year - the 3% standard and then 9% for curation (I think it's around that), on my current stake value converted back into Hive at current prices that's around 530K Hive...
That's just the curation, add in @200 a month earnings to that and you end up around 720K Hive, again very roughly at current prices.
What will Whale status be by then... 600K Hive, more?
The only reason I can see my having less than 500K by 2035 if is the price goes up, which would mean less hive earned, I think?
My brain thing starts to hurt thinking about it, but in short 500K by 2035 sounds reasonable. 1M would be a stretch goal. Wld need some fortitious trades for that!
Hmm basically it all depends on powered up stake vs liquid. Currently I think there's more liquid than staked.
For instance I know of an account unstaking ~1m hive power currently, if there is 200m staked in total this means soon there's only 199m so everyone is getting 0.5% more rewards for holding hp and curation soon (if that account was actively voting).
If hive price goes high it doesn't necessarily mean that you earn less hive. If the same people with the same stake keep voting your posts then you will still earn the same amount of hp - just a lot more hbd. If however more people stake liquid hive from exchanges and start voting with it, then yes, those same people with the same stake voting for you will be able to direct less rewards from inflation than before because there's now another whale voting on posts.
It's all very flexible and sort of unpredictable. Lazy-whale could in 3-6.5 days take his 2m hbd and convert it into almost 10m hive and power it up, then that'll mean 5% less curation returns for everyone and 5% less inflation for staked hp.
We're earning quite nice now compared to a future scenario where say people might be getting other income sources than just hp inflation and curation rewards from stake and thus a lot more of the hive is powered up while exchanges run dry. Imagine if our frontends now have millions of visitors and are paying hp holders millions in adrevenue daily - I'm sure everyone would run to stake up their hp.
Currently however binance is offering 40-50% apr on liquid hive so it makes sense for people to leave it there (ignoring riaks in this example) but that also means we get slightly more from inflation because of it.
Will be an exciting decade ahead, even more so when our inflation is at its lowest to see who starts powering up for the long long haul.
So many moving parts, it's almost as if it's been designed that way deliberately!
I can't access that Staking on Binance being in the UK, I'm sure many people can't!
Here is my Realistic Scenario:
Starting with 12,000 HP I assume 10% compounding growth over 10 years:
A=P(1+r)^{n}
where:
A is the future value
P is the principal amount
r is the annual interest rate (as a decimal)
n is the number of years
A = 12000(1 + 0.10)^10 = 31,125 HP (from curation and HP growing at 2.5%)
We need to add author rewards into this.
Assuming 655 per month times 120 months = 78,600 HP
So in total realistic HP is at least 110,000 in ten years
Wishful thinking is 250,000 HP in ten years.
In the next ten years, I’ll be in my early thirties. Just thinking about it gives me feelings I can't quite explain 😂.
If everything goes according to plan, I should have 50k HP by then.
Please resist the urge to go check my current HP, we all have plans 😌
I don't know what my Hive goals are for the end of the month let alone 10 years from now lol
But I know I am a weird and Hive isn't a means of wealth for me, well at least not initially. If it happens then it happens. But yeah I mean by 2035 if I had to put a goal on it I would need to do reverse math first.
I started blogging in January '25. And in the last 30 days I have earned 181 HP and 32 HBD in author rewards. So assuming I keep that same trajectory.. 6 month earnings of HP is 1,086 HP and yearly that is 2,171 HP. Times that by 10 years is 21,720 HP.
But that is not including inflation, Curation, etc etc. So I guess by 2035 my Goal would be... to have 250,000 Hive Power :)
yeah i hate math sometimes so YOLO. 250k is my goal and now that I have a goal, I need to work towards it I guess :)
A lot can happen in 10 years! Nice goal! I'm trying to reach that before 2025 is over on this account.
10 years from now I will hopefully be retired for good and ideally HIVE will be something that I continue to do on the side to earn a little bit of supplemental income to go along with my retirement earnings. Hopefully by then there is an easier on-road and off-road to HIVE for folks from the US. I like the idea of having a couple million stacked up and working for me. My hope was if this bull went well for me I was going to be moving a lot of my gains into HIVE, but so far things have just been pretty blah.
A billion Hive in 2035 is a bit more than double of what exists in 2025 and since my current stake is just short of 90k Hive, having 200k by 2035 seems realistic.
Wishfully, maybe double that. But either way, still an orca rather than a whale.
If its from author rewards alone, I think having 30k HP within 10 years is not an impossible goal to have as long as I continue creating content but I also use a portion of my HBD earnings to buy hive and used it to power up so maybe around 45k HP.
It's a long period of time.
I plan to have 100k in next few years so by 2035 I can think of having about 800k to 1 million HP.
jjejej All I know is that I want to continue in Hive forever.
!LOLZ 100% how I felt trying to come up with a number
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I'd be happy hitting 100k or so.
At my current rate of gains, I'd hit around 80k in ten years if it doesn't change. This doesn't actually count for compounding or the base interest on hive either so I could very well hit that target.
I hope I can become a Whale by then...at least!
Anything from whale status ~500K Hive up to 1M sound cool for me.
Although if I make a few devent trades this could come much quickly... or never at all, dunno.
In 10 years, my goal is to accumulate a large amount of Hive, not only to achieve my financial independence in the cryptocurrency world, but also to take advantage of growth opportunities and actively contribute to the community.
100,000 HP and I quit 9-5 Unrealistic but anything is possible.
1,000 HP - Realistic with consistent blogging.
1,000 HP? :) I went from 2,000 HP to 12,000 HP with consistent blogging in about a year, we are talking about 10 years here...
Another show that it is possible to achieve it.
150-200k. I am not sure if that is realistic or wishful goal. It took me 7+ years and some investments to surpass 12k. So that goal after another 10 years seems crazy. But now when I take blogging more seriously, Have a bit of Stake and intend to keep investing it may be possible? If could somehow pull a miracle and win manga contest main prize(2k eur) that would really help me. I think that after investing that 2k I would surpass 20k HP. Of course chances of me winning are very small.
A million would be nice but honestly long term goal for 2035 is
100k Hive and 10k HBD
If I manage to stay on my current growth model, I'll have 225k HP, which would give me 740 Hive per week to live my reach life!
I have to admit that I'm not even looking that far into the future. The crypto world is moving so fast that I don't even know what next year will bring and that's why I don't set myself many real goals. The only goal I have is to have 2000HP by the end of the year.
I don't wish for it, but who knows if Hive will still really exist in 10 years or if it will fail? Of course, it could also happen that Hive grows incredibly well, nobody knows...
so I looked up my stats, and in the past month I've earned roughly 30hp of hive from author rewards alone. now if we assume I am on hive at a similar level of activity and upvotes that would be 30X12X10 which is 3600 hp. However this doens't account for me investing from things like freecash(whatever I earn on there gets split 50/50 between hp and dec for my splinterlands habit). It also doesn't account for the momentum that is built into hive. For exemple, I've earned more curation rewards in the past month(thanks to winning a 500 hp delegation for one month from pizza) then the first 3 months I was on hive. So right now I've only earned 3hp from curation, but as my hp keeps growing that number will to.
Plus as I continue to put out good content and connect with others I'll naturally build an audience and my rewards will likely increase as well. So I think I will at the very least have at least 5K hp, but honestly, I hope it's a lot more cause Hive is awesome.
My 10 year goal is to still be alive and kicking!!!
I didn't realize that inflation went down over time even though I consider myself an OG here. I thought that they were just gonna inflate forever and ever like the US dollar. That's why I like reading your posts. You share useful information. I trust Matt from Splinterlands and he suggest you need to have at least 10,000 so that's my goal but I'm not even halfway there yet.
The truth is, I don't understand much about inflation, but it sounds interesting, my goals in 10 years are to learn more about cryptocurrencies since they are the future, also to make hive known to as many people as possible so that they also enjoy creating content, and finally it is to have my healing account with a good vote, so as not to leave all the work to you Hahahaha
I would like to hit at least like 100K, seems doable to me.
Depending on price tomorrow I might pick up another ~200 or so. That would put me roughly 13% of the way.
You've gotten far since the early days of terracore :D keep going!
Considering I can keep up with current activities, I should be reaching 100-120k hive so enter the orca club... The wishful would be 200k hive and 30k hbd
Yeah I have no plans for hbd currently until hive's back above $0.80 at least
Let's see what's binance cooking with that 40% APR on hive, someone says they might expect a big pump but I don't know really
I made 1300 Hive last month if I remember correctly, of which I spent 600 on Splinterlands. Give or take. So, making around 700 HP each month, considering an improvement in my content and network of 1% each month, I'd be at 164k HIVE in 10 years. Not counting curation nor the 3%. So let's say around 200k is realistic. 500k would be my dream.
Greetings, this is so complex to understand. I'll leave it as homework, but in 10 years, I see myself more active on Hive, learning a lot more, and I hope to have my blog consolidated.
Depends on price of hive, if a nice opportunity comes in the bull run, I rather will opt to convert to HBD and earn a stable interest, to earn my living and retire.
I just hope to still be here, cracking jokes.
@txracer @ne9en @cryptozeug @artofkylin
What is your HivePower goal to have by 2035?
Mine is 250k HP 😁
That is such a difficult question to answer. I believe inflation will be going down so I would have to figure out what % of inflation I have been earning and the growth of the % over time.
Judging buy my average growth currently 1200 HP is very doable, but that if I stop growing and just continue at the current rates, and 2500 would include comment rewarder stuff.
The other big change I have been considering is switching from the 50/50 split to only HP so that would bring the overall average to about 3700 for 10 years. Man breaking down the math like that is kind of depressing, so for a fairly reasonable 10 year goal 5k should be no problem if I can stay active. Crap now I want to figure out how to make a log scale prediction chart.
yeah I did the math and its sad. But you also gotta remember.. as you grow your HP your curation rewards grow with it. So it's like compounding interest or whatever lol
Also when you start having a considerable amount of HP you've "earned", you may feel inclined to invest some fiat as well over time as the risk feels much lower. Those who can, that is.
Very true, but I don't know if I will put more than money from the play games for $ or crypto apps put out, but even that will add up to quite a bit of HP at current prices.
I'm gonna say 175K hp, but more importantly, I'm gonna have the contest and etc community running and it's gonna be awesome.
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Hopefully, I'll return to check in 2035. The future is not a Stablecoin.