Ten Days of Auction
KROWL BRIGHTBANE (the card or item doesn't matter)
Welcome to the exciting, and sometimes baffling, world of auctions! Whether you're trying to win a vintage watch online, bid for ad space on Google, or buy your dream home, one thing is certain: you cannot wing it.
An auction is not just a game of chance. It is a strategic landscape where your knowledge of the rules, your assessment of value, and your psychological control directly impact whether you walk away with a prize or an expensive case of "Winner’s Curse."
This post is your ultimate playbook, breaking down the most common auction types, the fundamental bidding strategies, and the math behind making the perfect offer.
Before we talk about how to bid, we need to know the field of play. Different auctions operate under drastically different rules, and your strategy must adapt to the specific type of auction you are participating in.
We can categorize the most common auctions into four main types:
Types of Auctions
| Auction Type | Price Direction | Bidding Method | Key Feature |
|---|---|---|---|
| English | Ascending | Open / Sequential | Price starts low and rises as bidders outbid each other. |
| Dutch | Descending | Open / Instant | Price starts high and drops until the first bidder accepts. |
| First-Price Sealed-Bid | Fixed | Private / One-shot | Bidders submit hidden bids simultaneously; highest bid wins and pays their bid. |
| Vickrey (Second-Price) | Fixed | Private / One-shot | Bidders submit hidden bids; highest bid wins but pays the second-highest price. |
The current Splinterlands Auction that we will be talking about is an English type Auction, with progressive higher prices and transparent bids.
The Core Elements of Bidding Strategy
Regardless of the auction type, every successful bidding strategy rests on three foundational pillars:
Pillar 1:
Understanding Your Valuation (v) vs. Market Price: Your value (v) is the maximum amount you are genuinely willing to pay for the item. This must be a number you calculate before the auction starts, based on research and your own private assessment. Private Value: Only you know how much you truly want it.Common Value: All bidders are trying to estimate the item's true worth (e.g., an oil field or a resale item), but everyone’s estimates differ slightly. The common value model is much harder and is prone to errors.
Pillar 2:
Fighting the Psychology of the "Winner’s Curse": The Winner's Curse is a phenomenon where the winning bidder pays more for an item than its true worth. This typically happens in common value auctions. If ten people estimate an item is worth between $$1,000$ and $$2,000$, and everyone submits their true estimate as a bid, the person with the most optimistic (i.e., most over-estimated) assessment will win.Crucial Rule: To avoid the Winner's Curse, you must assume that if you win, everyone else had a lower estimate than you. Your bid must factor in this statistical probability by "shading" your bid downwards.
Pillar 3:
Managing Information (Signaling): In open auctions like English and Dutch, you receive continuous information.English: You know who is active and at what price. You may gain confidence or see signs of desperation.Dutch: The dropping price reveals information. The longer everyone waits, the lower everyone’s perceived value might be.
Typical Strategies
In English type auction, following the usual strategies:
| Tactic | How It Works | Best Used When | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jump Bidding | Submit a bid significantly higher than the minimum increment (e.g., jumping from $100 to $200). | You want to signal strong commitment and discourage tentative bidders. | You might pay more than necessary if competitors were about to drop out anyway. |
| Sniping / Last-Second Bidding | Place your bid at the absolute last second (common in timed online auctions). | Online auctions without anti-sniping extensions. | Technical failure or latency might cause your bid to miss the deadline. |
| Patience (Incremental) | Wait until the end of the bid increment clock and bid the minimum required. | You want to keep the price as low as possible for as long as possible. | Allows hesitant competitors time to rationalize higher bids. |
In Splinterlands, most commonly, the sniping wins. The only way to block sniping is by jump bidding where you typically always overpay.
Example from a Real World Auction
Yesterday the first of the KROWL BRIGHTBANE Black Foil Arcane card sold for 167 auction mark (AMs) to rustbow. At current price, and market is thin for Auction Marks;
1 AM = $1.294, @vugtis had 100 available for sale
so 167 AM = $216 (likely more, unless you have them already)
These are some of the lowest priced Black Foil Arcanes common cards on the market...
So $80 - $ 250. Based on this, the winner of the last auction already overpaid a bit. Now, it is understood, not all cards the made the same, but still, it is expected that the BFA auctions typically overpay.
Here is the table for the bidding war and the associated plot:
| Phase | Timeframe | Price (AMs) | Key Competitors | Dynamic / Strategy Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery & Anchoring | Aug 28, 1:38 PM – 7:02 PM | 3 – 31 | @babypuppy, @dawgstar, @chiefquimbysdad | Low-stakes probing. Multiple buyers enter minimal early bids to bookmark the item or test for an unmonitored auction. |
| Mid-Tier Shakeout | Aug 28, 8:16 PM – Aug 29, 4:45 AM | 50 – 105 | @dafiz, @bravetofu, @rusbow | Filtering casuals. Bidding jumps widen to 10–15 point increments. Early bidders drop out as price anchors above 50. |
| The Core Duel | Aug 29, 9:00 AM – 10:59 AM | 106 – 167 | @dafiz vs. @rusbow (with @bravetofu) | Late escalation. Bidding velocity accelerates rapidly into a two-way psychological battle, driving 36%+ of total price growth in 2 hours. |
There you have it. I think I am willing to overpay!
Beautiful graphs! Interesting information about the four different types of auctions. The Vickrey sounds really peculiar...who came up with that?
I at first thought, when I read this, Well I will never bid in an auction...I'm not aggressive. Then I remembered I bid on my house. I didn't think of it as bidding but out there somewhere was potentially someone else willing to pay a higher price. I guess that would be more like a first-price sealed-bid. The house I'm in now I actually bid high, because I wanted the house and I wanted the seller to accept my 'bid' on the spot. She did.
Sometimes, it's about more than money :))
Everyone bids :)
Sometimes you don't know you do :)
The auction was first described academically by Columbia University professor William Vickrey in 1961.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vickrey_auction
Common among stamp collectors :)
Thank you...my brother was a stamp collector, the only serious stamp collector I ever knew. He started when he was a child. He was an invalid (rheumatic fever) for a few years. The perfect hobby. I don't know what happened to his collection when he died. I know he rented storage space for it when he was well.
This comment is relevant to nothing. I was just remembering :)
Given the current markets I can imagine spending that kind of money on something like this. Back in the day when everything was pumping it was nothing though. I miss those days!
People who are spending are earning these kind of money from the game still. So they are reinvesting as opposed to taking the money out.
Great bidding strategy explanation, it seems there is science into auctioning as well. ;)
Yes, indeed there is. People got Noble prizes formalizing this logic :)