Midterm Election
I have thought long and hard about not writing this post. Yet, I have decided that I should, otherwise, there will no record of the anxiety I am going through, and the total amount of time I have spent looking at the polling data in Texas. Many of you know that I like to plot data and study. Election polling dataset analysis is a quintessential application of data visualization, statistical modeling, and graphical communication. Because poll data combines binary/multinomial response outcomes, temporal tracking, spatial distribution, demographic stratifications, and quantifiable margins of error, it presents a rich playground for data science and graphic design.
Voter registration in Texas reached a record 19,041,684 registered voters. Of those 19M voters, as of this writing 6.2M have already voted. For those who perhaps are not politically motivated, you know that this year Texas is a swing state. It is therefore critical to understand how Texas votes. Now, I will try my best to keep this post away from political opinion and focus just on the data. Because to me ultimately that is the goal of this post.
Blue Spine of Texas
I do not know how many of you know this, but democrats in the State of Texas have long tried of find a footing in the state and win a statewide race. Every election in recent past we have tried and lost in the end. The closest we have been in a statewide race in recent memory was the Beto O'Rourke - Ted Cruz senate race in 2018. I remember that race well and we lost with 2.7 points.
If you are a democrat, this is the best map of blue in Texas you have seen in recent times. On this map, the blue urban counties along the I-35 corridor, from north of DFW to Austin to San Antonio to the Northern Rio Grande Valley is known as the Blue Spine of Texas. Whoever wins this spine, wins Texas. It matters not the most populated county in Texas, the Harris County, Houston, where I live. That is always blue, but it can't pull the state numbers. That is how the math works.
Early Votes
If you look at the 2018 Senate race, a little more that 8.2M people voted. At 5-days out right now, we are at 6.2M. We are tracking lower than 2020 and 2024, both were presidential elections, which typically show higher turnouts. However, we are tracking higher that 2022, which was a midterm Governor race, O'Rourke - Abbott, which Beto lost by almost 11 points.
So it is fairly safe to say, this year we will definitely turn out more than 2022 midterm and likely more than 2018 8.2M number. The question in my mind is, is the higher turnout going to be good enough to pull the votes along the Blue Spine. As of now Talarico is polling consistent 4+ point higher than Paxton, but the trouble is in Texas, democrats typically poll about 4.2 points higher, so the lead is still within the margin of error. I am also deeply invested in the Governor race where I prefer Abbott to be gone forever, but that is even a tighter race where Gina Hinojosa and Greg Abbott is polling even to Abbott with a point lead.
I don't know what will happen on Nov 03, but I indeed am anxious, and consuming as much data as I possibly can!
Whenever I'm worried, or I'm sick, I organize. Last night I was looking ahead to an appointment with the oral surgeon this morning. There was a question of sedation...he had a question: would it be safe for me? I couldn't control what would happen today. So I did the only thing I could think of. I opened my brand new label maker and started labeling stuff. These are items I'm leaving to my kids. It was comforting to get control of something. To organize a piece of my life because another part wasn't cooperating.
I think your pursuit of data is perfectly reasonable, a healthy response to a very important situation you can't control. I love your charts and maps. It doesn't help us to predict what will happen, but it does clarify where we seem to be right now.
The most astonishing part of this election for me is the number of people in this country who don't 'get it', or the number who do get it and approve.
Fingers crossed.
People are stupid.
Here in Texas I can tell you for sure that people with five teeth left are defending people with five yachts; this must be the greatest political achievement in modern American History!
Yet, I still have hope. Well without hope we have nothing!
Fingers crossed....
I am happy to report that Texas is Blue.
Also we won the Governor race, we consider Gina Hinojosa family. Our kids school is saved!
My husband and I are celebrating. I'm very happy for Texas, and for all of us.
Dude, I'm in another country and I'm anxious about Texas.
Not only is Texas massive numbers-wise, but Texas and Florida have been the spiritual home of the Republicans... so being the Administration that lost Texas will be such a massive indicator of how deeply unpopular their policies and activities are.
It is absolutely wild that Paxton won the primary, he is a uniquely terrible candidate and obviously Cornyn would be doing much better.
Polling data is tough because it's incredibly hard to poll younger voters, and people aren't always honest about their voting intentions to pollsters, so even if a candidate is 14+ points ahead, that still might only mean they have a 65% chance of winning, which is only marginally more likely than a coin toss. Even someone with a 95% chance of winning isn't guaranteed, so candidates doing the community groundwork is an absolute must (which I don't think Paxton has been doing a lot of).
I can tell you about Texas. In my line of work I see a lot of Texas. I can tell you for a lot of Texas it doesn't matter who the candidate is or he has done as long as he is from the Republican party and I was very deliberate about my pronoun "he".
So with this backdrop I am always worried because I have a lot of battle scars and I hoped and dreamt a lot about a Blue Texas and it never happened. So I don't know what will happen this year. But hell I like a Blue Texas more than anything!
Having spent a decade in the US, and now being back in Australia, one of the biggest differences (I think) is Australians tend to vote for specific policy (or a range of policies) they like rather than the party... whereas a lot of American voters will be lifelong voters of a party regardless of policy.
The downside to the Australian voting mindset is that complex policy gets boiled down to one sentence consumable soundbites because generally people aren't really paying attention.
I really, really hope we get a Blue Texas! One week to go!
We will know Nov 3 midnight
I didn't know that Texas is a swing state. Thats interesting. I would have thought that it was red all the way. I can only imagine the anxiety for you. I'm Canadian and everybody is anxious up here as well. Lol
It is not in my living memory. Texas is as deep red as it gets.
There you have it :)
Do you believe in miracles?
I have hope but with everything thats happened over the past few years I'm losing faith in the US systems entirely. Watching laws being broken and nothing coming of it...etc. I don't think that you're playing with a fair deck anymore. Its feeling more and more like a rigged game. Thats just my outsiders perspective though.
There is deep corruption at all top levels of the government. The lower levels are perhaps still fair and people are still getting good and kind. But yes, our faith is getting challenged every day.
Been watching some of what is happening with the senate and governors race in Texas. Also caught some snippets of what is taking place in some of the places that were part of redistricting. Interesting races. Just can't believe someone like Paxton is even still able to stay alive in politics.
Well someone like Donald Trump is still President! :)
We have elected him not once but twice!
Very true !
The Fox channel up where I live is running ads against Talarico really hard even though we are way up in Michigan. It's pretty comical and I think they are definitely a bit scared. Personally though, I think things are going to end up going the way they historically do.
Let me guess: Talarico is going to take my kids and change their sex :)
The morons who believes that has no reason to vote :)
Haha, yeah, something like that. It's pretty sad.
For a while Texas has been the leading state in domestic migration. How has this affected Texas politics over time? Is Texas becoming more blue? Or only reds migrate to Texas?
There have been a lot of migration in the Austin-San Antonio area. However if that is enough to swing the state blue is a question that I don't know the answer to
Here in Washington state it is guaranteed blue victory, totally not exciting. But we do have Eastern Washington which is rural and red. No surprise there either.
yeah, Washington State is not in any discussion! You are lucky to live there.
The Republicans deserved to lose, but the Democrats did not deserve to win. Neither party really gives a damn about liberty or prosperity, just their partisan game. It would have been entertaining had Brandon Herrerra won in Gonzalez's district, but he already does more good outside government than he ever could within it anyway, so I hope he returns his focus to YouTube and his business. As for the rest of the state, y'all need to look outside the two-party system.
I can take the win I am allowed to have, rest, time will tell.
My kids go to Texas public school system, and Republicans were systematically dismantling it. Hopefully my kids will continue to go to public school now. That is all that I care for.
are you sure about "dismantling" spending? I know this is missing the last 2 years, but prior to that, it's a solid rise every single year in spending per student.
I am sure and positive. This is happening to my schools and to my kids. There is no argument on this fact. There are schools is Texas which are 4 days a week now. Last week my fifth graders favorite English teacher had to leave HISD. Again no question about it as I am in the direct impact case.
No worries. Gina Hinojosa’s first day promise is to fire Mike Morath.
Nothing cuts through the mainstream media noise better than raw polling datasets and spatial tracking. Tracking the 'Blue Spine' along the I-35 corridor is pure data science poetry. Most people read politics through emotional bias, but looking at the 4.2-point historical polling inflation in Texas is where the real signal hides. Relying on Harris County isn't enough; the margin of error isn't just a statistic here—it’s the actual battlefield. Appreciate this objective, non-partisan approach to the math behind the anxiety. Great analytical breakdown!
Haha diving into charts and numbers is honestly the smartest way to deal with election stress when everything is out of your hands. Fingers crossed for you guys when the final results come in.