Japn is having to face up to a big problem ATM, and it's one that other developed countries could find themselves dealing with soon enough.
It all starts with something anyone visiting Japan will recognise: the simple pleasure of an affordable curry lunch.
For years, grabbing a solid “Indian curry” meal for about 1,000 yen has been part of daily life for Japanese workers. It’s cheap, filling, and something you count on.
But now, even this everyday comfort is under threat.
And the reason why tells you a lot about Japan’s currrent economic crossroads.
Japan's Labour Crunch
Japan, like an increasing number of countries around the world, has an ageing population, and this also means the workforce is shrinking - and as older people retire there are simply too few native born Japanese people to fill the number of jobs that are required to be done.
This means Japan is increasingly dependent, like many other countries in a similar situation, on immigrant labour to fill those gaps!
But Japan isn’t really keen on large-scale immigration. The government has made it tougher to get visas and set all sorts of limits for foreign labor, mostly because many Japanese worry about losing cultural identity and social balance.
The end result is that there are fewer people able to do basic jobs like work in curry houses, which means number go up for wages and number go up for curry!
That’s good if you’re working. Not so great if you run a business—and those higher costs eventually show up on the menu. Suddenly, your go-to curry lunch isn’t so cheap.
Japan’s Dilemma: The Impossible Trinity
To put it bluntly Japan can really only have two out of these three things—
- Affordable everyday stuff
- Rising paychecks
- Low immigration
Try to have all three, the system falls apart.
Cut off immigration while your workforce shrinks, and you’ll fight for employees by offering more money. But then prices go up. Keep prices low, and pay stagnates. Or, open the door to more immigrant workers, and you ease the pressure on wages and prices—though that comes with its own social debates.
Every path means giving something up.
Not Just a Japanese Problem
The same issues echo across Europe and Britain, especially after Brexit. Plenty of people there want tighter borders, higher pay, and cheap services, all at once.
The US is no stranger to worker shortages either, even with plenty of immigration.
The Crunch Point
With fewer workers each year, Japan’s hitting a wall that can’t be avoided. There’s no fix that gives you everything. If you want higher pay, you (or someone) pays more at lunch. Keep prices down? You need more people. Stick with low immigration and cheap curry? Then wage growth stalls.
So, every country will face the same impossible balancing act sooner or later. It always boils down to this: which trade-off are you ready to live with? Japan’s impossible trinity is a preview of that uncomfortable choice.
I keep seeing stuff about the aging population and low birth rates, but that will settle down eventually. It may just take decades to work through. Meanwhile the countries the immigrants come from have their own labour shortage as the young people have left. That is not sustainable unless they can all send money home. We will see rising costs and may have to cut down on the luxuries we are used to. I think the average person has far more than their grandparents ever did. Governments have to find ways to distribute the wealth so everyone can actually have a life. Meanwhile a certain nasty idiot became a trillionaire...
Such an interesting perspective you have!
Your civilisation is facing rapid, violent collapse and the maths of low birthrates points to inevitable civilisational death, yet you think it will all settle down.
Its getting far worse every year, my friend. Its only a matter of time before you are are personally impacted.
All the Brits I know are packing their bags. The ones who left a while ago (incl my wife) are scared to go back and shocked when they do.
And the one person who has given humanity hope for the future, revolutionised multiple previously stagnant industries creating massive economic value & employment for hundreds of thousands of people you don't like because he's rich.
This sort of attitude, which is seemingly shared by many of your fellow Europeans, is exactly why your civilisation is finished.
Ayn Rand predicted this so accurately.
So long and thanks for all the tea!
Outside of the extremist media literally nobody is talking about any sort of collapse. All societies have their issues and actions against 'others' are unlikely to save them.
As for Musk I consider him to be a nasty person with severe issues who happens to have his own media platform. That has nothing to do with his wealth, but then he turned down an opportunity to help solve world hunger and he's much richer now. I'm not against people getting rich, but I'm more interested in those who choose to do good with it.
Of course your government approved "non-extremist" media is not telling you what basic maths & biology makes obvious. They want to keep you compliant and easily controlled.
Don't study "non-approved" history either. Civilisations that don't have enough kids get invaded by barbarians and killed off. Happened to the Greeks, the Romans & many others.
You are lucky that you are on Hive so can get an alternative perspective.
To the extent their even is "world hunger", a ridiculous term, it is caused by corrupt governments and no amount of money can solve it. There is plenty enough food in the world and far less people are hungry than ever before.
Musk is doing far more important things. Earth cannot be fixed without humanity becoming multi-planetary, just as Europe couldn't be fixed without the colonisation of America.
Musk is saving humanity and giving it a bright future.
Musk could help the world more by not stirring up hatred. All that wealth and he still seems unhappy. I could almost pity him.
I've worked with and as a migrant worker. There are many places in the USA where there's work, but many in the local workforce don't want those jobs. If they do get hired, they quit soon after. The migrant workers will tend to stay on.
It is only recently that my region has started posting Help Wanted signs. Growing up, there were far more applicants than jobs. We have grown in the decades I've been around. I don't think the Help Wanted signs are for lack of a shrinking workforce. I think younger people aren't interested. Perhaps a sign of increased regional affluence.
Buenísimo lo que compartiste. Pasé a dejar mi apoyo, segui creando contenido de calidad!
Trying to maintain low immigration, high wages, and cheap lunch is like trying to balance a stool on one leg. And besides, I heard Japanese people don't like to raise kids, so their population is going down as well.
Low fertility means inevitable civilisational death!
But the choice you highlight is one between going slowly and gracefully into the night and rapid, violent and painful destruction of your society.
Japan chooses to die slowly, gracefully & comfortably while maintaining societal cohesion by keeping incompatible immigrants out. It is the right choice.
The European approach of letting in the worst possible illegal immigrants and then giving them massive social welfare leads to a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly (RUD) of European Civilisation.
Europeans are literally having their throats cut by barbaric parasitic invaders that are rapidly bankrupting their countries and destroying societal cohesion. It is quite obvious that these people will turn Europe into the shitholes they came from.
They are also creating massive anti-semitism that is driving out their most productive people and creating major tensions with the ONLY advanced nation with high fertility. A country whose technology is crucial to maintaining economic & military competitiveness.
Japan's approach is far better and robots can partly mitigate the lack of workers. Israelis are abandoning Europe as a tourist and business destination and flocking to Asia, especially Japan.
Australia has adopted an approach of seeking skilled immigrants from India and China but still has big problems with the relatively small number of incompatible immigrants they allowed in.
Ultimately only nations that maintain an above replacement birthrate will survive.
But if death is inevitable, the choice of how long to live and how to die is still an important one.
This is an incredibly well-thought-out analysis of Japan’s economic dilemma The "Impossible Trinity" perfectly describes the tight spot they are in balancing low immigration trying to maintain affordable prices, and facing the pressure to raise wages with a shrinking workforce. It really is a cautionary tale for other developed nations heading down a similar demographic path. The visual you used breaks down this complex issue beautifully Thanks for sharing such high-quality thought-provoking content 📈🇯🇵