Interesting analysis but I do not think that technical analysis has any merit. Looking at past price movements and trying to figure out the future based on pure historic figures would not provide a clear picture of the future. Instead, rather consider what is happening in the cryptocurrency space: 1) adoption through numerous new exchanges / fiat-to-crypto apps, 2) good regulation to push crypto into becoming another asset class, 3) preparation for institutional money, 4) more open governments, etc.
I agree to a point. But trend analysis doesn't require too much historical data and it is the worst way of trying to predict the future with exception of all other ways ;-) There definitely needs to be deeper study, polite push back and taking things with a grain of salt in such a volatile space. It really is a virtual version of the wild, wild west. Isn't that what draws us all here?
Not me.
Yes yes and yes to all four of your points. Plus Central banks want a piece of the action too now.