"There is a possibility that Japan and China will go to war in the Taiwan Strait."
I agree. At this point I am sure China will act to secure access to oil, but I am not smart enough to predict how. I have speculated that China will take Taiwan, because the US cannot fight three wars at the same time, but I realized China isn't stupid enough to take Taiwan and lose it, much as Russia is losing the Ukraine by conquering it. Ukrainians' opinions of Russia are continually becoming worse the longer the conflict draws out. There are more reasons for China not to take Taiwan than there are to take it. More importantly, actively waging war on the US will not improve China's access to petroleum, and if it is going to war for petroleum, Iran is the place to do it, IMHO.
But China has been dangerously cut off from supplies it is extremely intent on by this war in Iran. Immediately prior to the US attacking Iran, it also attacked Venezuela, which supplied China quantities of oil. The US even seized a tanker full of oil China had already paid for. I'm not a geologist, but Nigeria, Darfur, Russia, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia seem to be what supplies are left for China, as Norway, Canada, the US, and Venezuela, as well as all production in the Persian Gulf, are essentially able to be denied to China by the US.
I am less concerned China will go to war with Japan than it will take an active part in defending Iran.
Thanks!
China wants to take over Taiwan's semiconductor industry!
I guess China wants to hold Taiwan's semiconductor industry hostage to secure a stable supply of oil, food, and resources from the United States!
I guess China would try to conquer Taiwan because they don't have a carrier battle group to support Iran!
Thank you for kind answer!
What China wants is irrelevant to what it can have. The foundries on Taiwan are pre-wired for explosive deconstruction, and that detonation is only controlled externally to Taiwan, and will be initiated in the event those foundries are possessed by the CCP, whether willingly delivered or taken by force.
I believe that China does have a carrier battle group, but also that carrier battle groups are today obsolete. This has been proved by the Houthis, whom have caused $T carrier battle groups to withdraw from the Red Sea with FPV drones made of sticks and string, because all they must do to render the carrier incapable of projecting force is dimple the flight deck so that planes cannot launch or land on it.
Today the evolution of technology has caused decentralization of means of production of, particularly, military arms that create security, to be the cutting edge of technological advance. $T weapons systems are inferior to $15 drones that can drop $50 grenades. It is these facts that have caused me to reconsider how China might best secure the supplies of oil it's existence depends on, from taking Taiwan to directly confronting the cultists attacking Iran and the gulf states today. Because China can quickly produce vast swarms of drones that can quickly bleed off their defenses and easily render carriers incapable of projecting force, I believe that is the most effective option on the table for China.
The same is true for all of us today.