As both countries rising debt, every piece of move counts. World war 3 is no longer a military option, but rather in a way of subtle form in power. Both countries armed with economist, hacker, businessman, scientist, spy, geopolitic advisor and other discreet weaponry. One thing is certain, whether the US remains on top nor China will take that position.
There are approximately $20 trillion worth of debt by the US government, following the sequence of war and economic collapse, bailing out big corporations by uncle Sam's niece. While China owns more than $1 trillion worth of US debt; causes the Renminbi( Chinese currency) devaluation, which result to a cheaper export products to America(one of the biggest customer of China).
Meanwhile the US government looking for a way to isolate themselves from global free trade, as response to China's vision of globalization. That shows the US stepping down as global leader, after the output from hegemony that leads to miscalculation, following what happen in middle east. Losing track on trades, deficit rises, left with a choice of printing money. And the US government are trying heal themselves from inflicting wounds; helping micro businesses, rebuilding its infrastructure and cutting taxes with the hopes of fixing loopholes.
With the rising global equity market prices and interest rates; China's diversification to other form of asset classes like gold is safe a play. While China is setting up as global leader in terms of soft power, and an increasing middle class consumers, funding One Belt One Road Initiatives project is a bold move and expensive. As debt soars, China became more and more riskier than ever before. Investing money on developing countries is another form of risk that can be a burden to them. As long as it maintains their sphere of influence towards neighboring countries with a promising future, throwing a money is a no big deal.
If we go back in time, we see the evolution of geopolitics, handing power from Egypt, the vikings, ottoman empire, roman empire, so on and so forth until the US claim the power, in the end certainly, "the ones who's left are the ones who's right". - unknown
Great post ..
Hegemony has negative consequences .. We encourage competition
Thanks for sharing
I love the examination here, but I think you're missing a few points.
I spend a lot of time examining the powerplay between the U.S. and China, especially where the Philippines is concerned. It's the primary focus of my entire Steemit account, really.
I like the analysis here, but I think you're missing a few points. For one, the devaluation of the Yuan is not entirely a good thing for China, as is evident by their massive sell-off of foreign currency reserves back in 2015-16 to try and shore it up. Also, their status as an exporter is also a vulnerability because it makes them vulnerable to tariffs, which Trump is crazy enough to use against them.
Anyway, I won't go into the whole in-depth analysis here, I'll just say "this is what nearly my entire blog is about." I don't think China is as big a power as everyone makes them out to be, and I say that from living in Beijing the past 5 years.
To say the U.S. is "stepping down from dominance" is a bit overstated as well for two reasons. In truth, we're neither stepping down nor were we ever truly globally dominant. We were just the only world power that was unquestionably regionally dominant, and one of only a few left with global reach at all. Our appearance of "ruling the world" came from doing an effective job of making sure we were the only ones in the world who unquestionably ruled our neighborhood, while everyone else had a threat in their backyard (and it didn't have to be us, nor did any of the parties involved have to like us, so long as they had to worry about each other).
As for China...
Well, as I said I think you're overestimating them too. I've got a few articles comparing the U.S. to China militarily and economically, and there's just no comparison. The only way China will ever manage to be globally dominant (and I'll admit they're making a go at this right now) is through the ancient Wu-Kingdom strategy of making the enemies surrender by making it look like it's pointless to fight you, even when your true strength is diminutive. But that image is starting to have some cracks form in it as well.
But China is making a lot of enemies. Sri Lanka and the Maldives have found out that the "Belt and Road" plan is a trap that leads to subjugation, Pakistan is learning the same lesson now, and Latin America quietly nodded and smiled as China offered them the chance to participate in it but then they walked away into the arms of Japan, who has taken over as the leader of the TPP after America (who would have given more than we gained from it) withdrew.
You speak of China offering a "promising future," but not many countries around China see it that way. As China's neighbors line up one by one to push China back (which they're doing now) with the U.S., Japan and India all three backing them up, I don't see China emerging as this "world leader" everyone sees them becoming.
thanks for sharing your thoughts @patriamreminisci, yes you are right about undisputed power from the US, but what I'm saying at the end of my statement is:
The geopolitic sphere of influence is constantly changing. If not China, it might be India or Russia. :)
Well, that's my point. There's not likely to be a central global authority, the way the world is shifting.
America's maneuvering right now is to make sure that when the dust settles, none of the other powers are near to her own backyard while still keeping at least a toehold in theirs.
Russia is going to do what they have always done: maintain a reality where, on one hand, even though their economy will not permit a prolonged war, they are capable of doing enough damage in a short one that no one is willing to fight them unless absolutely necessary, then on the other hand trying not to push other powers to the point where "absolutely necessary" is how they view sch a war.
China... well, they're trying to step up on a global scale and they're making a lot of major enemies really close to home right now, most notably India and Japan, and there's an entire alliance forming against them right inside their "Nine Dash Line." Meanwhile, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and the Maldives are all starting to balk at the price China's "gifts" have had as they watch their sovereignty being chipped away (or shredded outright in Pakistan's case). They are going to be fighting on six fronts if it comes to a war, and they are starting to wake up to that fact. They'll continue throwing their weight around for a little while, then they'll shift their tune and retreat while shrieking about the "Western Imperialism" that forced them to do so. No one abroad will buy this, but it'll be good enough for home consumption and generate domestic sympathy for the CCP (which is at an all-time low right now), and keep them in power.
People say I'm crazy for this, but I see Japan, rather than China, being the dominant power in East Asia by 2040. They already have a more powerful navy and air force than China (with A LOT more experience), and they're what's called a "nuclear threshold" nation. A nation which, despite not having a nuclear weapons program, has all of the prerequisite technology and scientific expertise to complete a nuclear weapon (or several nuclear weapons) in a matter of months if they decide to (and need I even mention that they are the world's undisputed leader in cyber-weaponry and AI, and running a dead heat with Israel for leadership in missile interception). Economically, everyone is so focused on China's OBOR right now that they seem not to notice Japan is already the leading investor in Southeast Asia (meaning a lot of countries can more readily piss off China than afford to piss off Japan), and after America pulled out of the TPP, they took it over and have been running with it. The Pacific Rim is, from an economic standpoint, a lot of Japanese satellite states right now.
The thing the U.S. is worried about is making sure that China's population, Russia's natural resources, and Central Europe's technological and economic infrastructure (and military experience) all stay separate from each other and none of those three succeeds at bringing one of the other two into their orbit. If that happened, all of Eurasia would be under the dominion of one major player and it would be a threat not just to our power but to our existence.
George Friedman (an intelligence analyst who has made some rather absurd predictions on a few occasions but has been right more often than he has been wrong) has an interesting list of who he thinks the four dominant players will be by 2050.
I won't say who, but it's interesting to note that neither China nor Russia is on the list, and the only Western power to make his list-of-four is the U.S.
Anyway, that's all speculation, but unless China manages some really slick diplomatic maneuvering in a short maneuvering window of the next few years, I see them crashing hard in the early 2020's. They're on the brink of war with more than 10 countries right now (12 if you count internal rebellions as countries), but there's not a single soldier in the PLA with an hour of heavy combat experience and China knows it. The next few years will be about how much they can grab before a "new normal" settles in.
good news..thanks for sharing👌💜
@upvote & @resteem done
Thanks brother!
@cortex, great post you'v got there. China is likely to become more dorminant globally than the US, China has moved from a being a "consuming nation to a producing nation," the very value US is loosing by the day. It would only take a little more time before they take over domination from the US.
China has produced more upcoming enterprenuers millionaires in the last ten years than the US.
The way I see it the US brings nothing to the table, they just sit there and eat, I'd sooner burn money than lend it to the US . China will be lucky to see a cent on the dollar of that trillion, I don't see any body queuing up to buy those bonds . They're in serious trouble, make no mistake , half the states are insolvent, most of America is falling a part , the Mexican Cartels will hoover up whats left after American doctors and big pharma created a heroin epidemic prescribing opiates like they were smarties, America is governed by thieves for thieves, it'll soon be worse than Nigeria and here's an interesting one for you, the highest number of entrants into Harvard per capita from nationalities living in The US are Nigerian .
my pleasure..welcome💜
Populism, dominated whatever nation, lead it to directions rarely imagined ever before and US is no exception. Conversely, China is reaching its zenith in its decade long fiscal stability. In such a state, US, instead of consolidating its hard-earned strength at global economic forum since reconstruction era, has opted a novice path of secluding itself and is trading words against free trade agreements, including NAFTA. China has secured all the means to exploit the playing field and is expanding its galore throughout multinational fora and showing much hardened and obvious mettle even in UN. To regain its ambivalent standing, US would need, akin to Chinese counterparts, are in sheer need to consolidate, redefine, and fortify its diplomatic front to ensure it doesn’t lose its hold on the markets that matter the most for the stability of the currency at a time when IMF is also ready to accord recognition to Yuan in its acrredited currencies pool. Thankyou @cortexx for sharing the topic and inviting steemians to express their views
It's time the USA stop enabling communist countries, and began to allow US Treasury notes back into circulation, and perhaps allowing some forms of cryptocurrencies. Unfair of China's "President" Xi to live in the benefits capitalism, a billionaire, while forcing their working class to live under communism.
The US seems to be allowing cryptocurrencies to some degree,perhaps experimentally, to hedge its debt.
Absolutely, since China banned crypto currencies, now it is America would take chances I hope. :)
America will get around to it, but America never does anything without taking a long, long, long time to investigate it first. What are the pros... what are the cons... what are the aftereffects of the pros... what are the aftereffects of the cons... what are the pros and cons of those aftereffects and can they be delayed/hastened to make them beneficial... It's why policy meetings in the U.S. are so bloated and stove-piped.
That two-edged sword shields her from a lot of rash decisions but it has also kept her from jumping in on the ground floor of a lot of innovations. But anyway, all of that was to say America will get around to embracing something like cryptocurrencies eventually, but not when there are so many question marks surrounding the entire market right now.
As for China, they've been playing "go away, no wait a minute" with the cryptocurrency world for the past few years, and it's generally believed that they're working on a digital currency of their own. Now the CCP never likes anything that's decentralized but I think they've found a way to get around that.
The coin itself can be decentralized without them losing their deathgrip on domestic power, as long as they hold ironclad control over the only apps whereby it can be exchanged.
From living in Beijing for the last five years, I believe that the meteoric rise of WeChat Wallet and Alipay has been a test run for this, and the introduction of a Cryptoyuan (which will not be tradeable through any means other than those two, which the CCP can lock you out of for disloyalty) will be their next attempt to get the global "ooooh, aaaah" factor working back in their favor. There's a nagging worry in my mind (one I've dismissed as nonsense but which won't go away) that it has darker implications as well. At the risk of being a spammer, I actually just mentioned that in an entry this past week.
Thank you @patriamreminisci for actively participating to my blog despite of differences, I'm looking forward to your post too. :)
cough Bay of Pigs, cough Iraq War, cough, Grenada cough list goes on . . .
Cg
Hi bro..informative post.carry on
upvote & @resteem done
appreciated sir @dedicatedjaved !
The world powerbase is still very much controlled by the Roman Empire, they have merely morphed into a global control matrix. The Vatican is the religious arm, the City of London is the financial arm and Washinton DC is the military arm. There are some other organisations you can add to this such as the UN, The Club of Rome, some secret societies and the Bilderberg group. Collectively you can call this the push for a New World Order. I have done extensive research on this and lets just say the world we live in is way different from what we are told by the mainstream.
I appreciate your enlightening comment sir @cryptogalactic. "The more we know, the more we learn we don't know" - Shimon Peres. :)
Absolutely. The more answers we get the more questions arise.
thanks for sharing , keep going
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