Nice analysis and I quite agree with you. I've seen the pack value dropping constantly from around 15$ to now close to 7$. When taking into account that the general sale hasn't started yet, I believe that we will see even lower pack values and it might be a good idea to wait before buying packs and cards.
I have picked this post on behalf of the @OurPick project and it will be highlighted in the next post! 
I think so too, but I still believe that everyone will still make money from them in the future