Today I'd like to continue the investment theme by following up on my recent article on "Is it worth investing in SPS?". In this post, I will focus on the statistics about whether it is better to buy the latest cards, and which cards to buy, or whether you will earn more when opening packs from the latest addition. I can tell you right off the bat that most of my friends buy cards and think it's a better way, but today we're going to check it out.
My thought on buying packs
Let's start with the packs of cards from Chaos, currently, we are still at the point where you can only buy packs if you have Vouchers. There are about 24 days left until the general sale and therefore many more Vouchers will be given out. Of course, if 3 million packages are sold the general sale will start immediately.
In my opinion, it is a very good time to make money because the price during the last one varied between $3-5, and when I invest in 290 SPS I get 0.1 Vouchers per day. However if one wants to open packages one has to invest this money and additionally pay $4 for each package.
Another expense is the purchase of potions, after all, we would not like to have a smaller chance of getting the card of our dreams, in this case, we have to buy 5 legendary potions and 5 alchemy potions, so we pay another $0.45. Summing all these values up we get about $8.45 for one pack. This is quite a big amount, but many people are selling packages on hive-engine where the price is about $6 so it's more profitable to sell your own Vouchers and buy packages from the market. To sum up, in the best case we are able to get one pack together with buying potions for about $2-3 which is really a very nice price allowing us to buy many packs.
Now let's look at the chances of receiving cards, of course, everything here is a statistic, and one person can get great cards while another for 10 packs will not get anything interesting. For this purpose, we can use a very interesting device which is a PACK VALUE CALCULATOR. In its settings, the average price for one package is $6.65. Let's check two cases, the first one is when we have the vouchers and buy as many packages as we have and sell the vouchers. The second case is when we simply buy the packages at the market price of $6.
- Case 1 package = $2.5
- Case 2 package = $6
As we can see the predicted value of 10 packets is $66.53 and it gives us the profit of $2 in case of the purchase at the normal price. It is quite a poor business, but many people can buy the cards and wait for a better price. In contrast to the almost zero earnings if you have the vouchers and sell them you can make up to $36.78 which sounds much better.
What about buying cards?
Now let's talk about the second strategy which is buying cards from the market, I think there is a lot of room for improvement here because many people still don't know which legendary cards are very good and playable so they sell them for pennies. Of course, another thing is that a lot of packs have been opened and card prices have already dropped significantly at the beginning. In my opinion, when the general sale starts, the prices of these cards will fall even more, which will allow you to buy really good cards at a very low price. For example, I am waiting for the newest legendary cards for 0 mana, I think that they are underestimated by many people, and in the future, they may turn out to be crucial for players. For example, let's see the price of Scorch Fiend. On the market we can currently buy it for $12, I think that this price may drop to $8 when the pre-sale ends. Now compare this card's price with the average hatching cards from previous expansions and you can see the gap, so if you want to invest long term you can buy these cards and wait until people notice that they need this card at tournaments.
I can tell you that I have a few more of these cards in mind, and I think that every investor should be interested in this right now because every day more and more players are choosing to play2earn games.
My advice
In conclusion, I can say that in my opinion, the best investment we can make is of course in the first place to buy packages in case we sell our vouchers. This is a great way for people who invested in this game a long time ago and now they can make very good profits from it. But for new players I think the best way would be to buy cards from the market if they want to invest, on the other hand, it takes away a lot of the fun because those of us didn't enjoy opening Pokemon packs or all the other collectibles. However, it should be remembered that everything here works on the principle of randomness and therefore many people can lose a lot of money. On the other hand, I would not worry about it so much because in a year's time the cards that now seem to be worth nothing, may cost several hundred dollars. Therefore, my advice to all players is to have fun and open packages, and for investors to look for the best opportunities on the market after the general sale of cards begins.
I also invite everyone who has not yet joined our 1up Community to see what we are up to!
Nice analysis - market hands down for return, but it is fun to open packs, and of course the later gives you more opportunity to get gold cards, if yer lucky!
You're right, for me that's the main reason why we love card games so much
Good post bro!
I think about buying 200 packs in amount 2 x 100 to receive bonus packs.
Maybe I be lucky who knows :D
Pls make a video with an openning!
I need wait for vouchers, because I have like 6-7 per day ;P
Nice analysis and I quite agree with you. I've seen the pack value dropping constantly from around 15$ to now close to 7$. When taking into account that the general sale hasn't started yet, I believe that we will see even lower pack values and it might be a good idea to wait before buying packs and cards.
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I think so too, but I still believe that everyone will still make money from them in the future
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Thanks!
very nice insight! buying packs with vouchers to get extra airdrop cards for me is the best choice however due to the dip in price, buying your preferred cards mostly Gold Epic or Legendary would be a smart choice.
Exactly 😎
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