If Trump wants a shot at the whitehouse he needs to win, or at least improve his standing with, tons of groups he's currently losing. I don't know what he should do. If there is no bombshell in his tax returns he would have already released them, but not releasing them might make people wonder more than they already are about why he won't.
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I agree; or option 3 he is doing to be Trump and go against the flow. Just like I think Ted Cruz not endorsing Trump was a brilliant plan in response to Bernie Sanders endorsing Hillary Clinton.