I'd like to add a bit to your calc and that is if you are self-voting 10 times a day you would need to selfvote either 10 posts or a lot of comments. Now it is possible to generate 10 spamlike comments a day but I have seen a lot of those flagged. Your calcs assume a 0% flag probability.
Part of the goal of the project is to allow bloggers to blog. You only need 1 quality post to get almost the same value as 10 shitposts. The only reason we cannot beat the strategy is because of market conditions. Our expenses are sticky, our income is not.
The 10x self upvote rule I use is mainly a way to calculate what something is worth. You do have a valid point that potential falgs are not into the probabilities, this is mainly an issue with bigger accounts and even those have plenty of way to do indirect self-upvoting (circel jerk upvote for upvote)
I do appreciate @qurator and what it's doing and there is a huge need for projects like this that allow real bloggers to blog regardless if their subject of interest is popular on steemt and get some guaranteed daily upvotes for it. It would be nice to see some support and delegation from the devs to @qurator you guys would really deserve that and it would highly benefit the steemit platform with all the members that are being carried