My Bull Case For Rising Star

in #risingstar3 months ago

Potentially the highest paying crypto game on the market... #risingstar 💲💲💲

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Let's start at the beginning shall we? You might want to get yourself a cup of your favourite hot drink and get comfy, this is going to get deep... ☕️

So, background. I've been in the crypto-sphere for close to 5 years now, 4 of those having more than just a negligible amount of "play" money, and the last 3 ish years I've been on the Rising Star platform. I originally came across it after I discovered Splinterlands, I'd been playing that for like a month and I kept hearing about this Rising Star game, so I thought I'd check it out. It looked sketchy AF, so I decided not to bother, but a few of the friends I'd made in Splinterlands insisted I gave it a chance, so I did, and I'm so glad I did. Within a couple of months I'd already siphoned all the value from my Splinterlands account into RS, and spent a bit extra, and my RS account was sat pretty at about $500.

I saw the potential of Rising Star pretty quickly, where all the previous crypto gaming projects I'd seen thus far were just that, gaming projects, but (and for those who may be reading this and dont know) RS is, for the most part a P2E game, however, its a P2E game with a side hustle. Because its also a music platform, where artists come, mint their music as NFT's, and sell them on, just like they would with a cd, or on Spotify or iTunes (dont get me started on how bad the subscription model is for artists, we'll be here all week!).

So recognising all this and seeing the massive potential for upside both financially and culturally, I mean beyond the obvious financial incentives, taking out the money grabbing middle men in the music industry and putting that power back in the hands of the actual artists is an extremely appealing concept to me and one I'd want to support regardless of profit. I hate the idea of "mainstream music", thats not how art works, and that's why it sucks so hard these days, same issue in the film industry, because when you try and make art for a majority it ends up plain and boring. I want to see some joy and life in society again, some real and honest diversity, because thats should music should be if nothing else, diverse 🎶

Anyways, I'm rambling at this point, lets get to the reason I decided to create this post in the first place, the bottom line...

So the reason I brought up the musical nature of RS is because it does also play quite a crucial part to the tokenomics, and seems to me to be one of, if not the main reason that other crypto games never have the longevity, or even really a decent earning potential for the vast majority of players. You might be able to earn a few cents here or there in some, but growth without investment is usually impossible. Thats where RS comes in, because it has a side hustle, it can bring in extra revenue from outside of the game to help bridge the inflation, and also link the game into a wider network, its moving beyond just the gaming circle into the music circle and for ease of trying to find out exact figures, lets just say it doubling its target audience, market, and therefore revenue, to be able to sustain the P2E aspect. Thats what other crypto games seem to be missing in my opinion.

Theres always been a fallacy thats existed since the birth of P2E, and that is by some miracle everyone should be able to earn from it. But thats just not how markets work, for 50% to earn, 50% must lose. There is no "magic" factor that allows crypto games to somehow bypass the natural order of the universe, you cannot make more of something out of nothing, no matter how hard you try. But what you can do is what Jux has done, and thats to find a workaround, and thats what that 2nd revenue stream is, from what I see it allows for the potential of a genuinely self sustaining economy.

So, what does all this actually mean?

The Numbers 💹

As we all know crypto in general has been pretty bleak the past couple years, but once you have a read through this, I can guarantee you'll feel a lot more hopeful that before you stumbled onto this post.

So I've been consistently putting small-ish amounts into RS for the past the years as the bottom has fell out time and again, each time it dropped I'd buy more. I've never kept an exact tally on what I've put in, but I can fairly confidently say I'm into it now by probably a little over £5k. I dont know exactly what that equates to as an average buy in, all I have is an amount spent, and my account value to go off with the calculations I've done based on my own account.

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And just in case this needs to be stated, none of this is financial advice I'm purely laying out my observations and my actions thus far, and my intentions for the future.

As you can probably imagine, having so much invested I've been watching the markets quite carefully, always buying more as it drops, and the simple reason its dropping is less people buying. The average daily spend is somewhere between $40-60, and has been for a little while now while the value has slowly been decreasing over time. now it seems to of bottomed with Starbits value being at 0.000005 Hive. So it seems $40-60 is what it takes to maintain a stable price by matching inflation at that price. Which also means that it currently has incredibly low liquidity, to the extent where literally a few dollars moves the market, significantly. Just as an example, I bought £100 worth of Starbits a couple of days ago, and it went up over 15%. It would literally only take a couple of actual whales recognising the potential and we're looking at a potential upside of 1000s of %. If someone came in now and dropped $1000, we would all see a 4-6x jump, instantly. It wouldnt last obviously, it needs a steady stream to keep a steady price, especially at first, many will try to sell out when they see such an increase, scared that it wont go any higher

This also has another implication, forget the whales, if everyone who plays the game agreed to stop selling their earnings and just put them back into the game upto the end of the year, assuming daily income of $50, and $100 increasing value by 15% (i know thats not exactly how it works, its just a rough example before someone tries to nail me on my math 😆), value would be increasing on average 7.5% per day, for 29 consecutive days. That's some big green candles 💹🤑

I just want to interject a little side note here, prior to last bull market Splinterlands had roughly 10k daily players, at peak during the bull market it went over 600k. Thats 60x, in case you couldn't work that out lol. It can happen. And does happen. Those in RS right now might well be the next Gen whales, its entirely within the realm of possibility, in fact its more than just possible, its plausible bordering on likely, in my mind. If it wasn't I wouldn't have so much behind it.

Okay, math heads on people and try to follow me here..

Starbits at its peak went over 0.0003 Hive, I cant remember exactly how much by so lets just say that was its peak. Hive at its peak went upto £2.15 (sorry I have to do this in £, but thats been my frame of reference the whole time).

So if my math isn't wrong, Hive has dropped by 86.884%, and SB has dropped by 98.334%. Those subsequent drops amount to a total drop of 99.782%. Meaning the ~£5k I put into my account would be worth £10.90. My account value however, has only dropped by 66%, and is currently sat steady at ~£1700, for no other reason than the earning potential of RS. Which tells me that my average buy in is somewhere around 0.000015,the silly thing is I could buy it upto that, if it meant anything, people would just sell it back down over time, at a rate of about $50 worth of SB a day, if income remains the same, but temporarily I would be at breakeven.

For the fun of it, if by some miracle I woke up tomorrow and Hive and SB are back at their peak prices, my account would be worth £751,959, and id be earning £1935 per day. Just to put things into perspective.

Now, I haven't done the maths on this for a while, I worked this out about 3-4 months into playing, but the average ROI came in at roughly 100 days (assuming prices remain the same), which in all honesty is pretty insane considering that: A. you can take your original investment back out at any time, subject to selling your NFT's. And B. The NFT values themselves tend to increase over time, none of my calculations take this into account because its kind of impossible to factor in, its just an additional collectors bonus I guess, because, hint, being a collector isn't necessarily the most efficient way to play and progress 😉

The only change I'm aware of since I made that original calculation that could make any different is the addition of paying for music lessons now, but at most thats decreased earnings by maybe 10%, so 110 day ROI instead of 100. Hardly the end of the world. For anyone buying in now at ground level, I see only upside, I cant see daily income dropping below $40, and thats what it appears to take to maintain current price, theres always gonna be a few who spend a bit.

Also worth noting, if Hive goes up, Starbits $ automatically goes up (as long as it remains the same value in hive), not only that but the $ value of things like leaderboard rewards, and rave rewards will also go up, meaning those things become more attractive so people buy more Starbits to compete and earn more. Imagine if each rave was potential to earn $20, or $50. Hive goes back to £2.15 and yeah. $60 prize pool for a medium to long rave 💁‍♂️
So Rising Star it's self doesn't even need a cash injection as long as hive performs, the rest will come naturally over time.
And as they say a rising tide lifts all ships, I'd be very surprised if the crypto market runs and hive doesn't.

I think Jux has structured this brilliantly for the vast majority, in preparation for the next bull run. I see it will end up working in a way that as long as RS gets it's $40 income average per day or similar, hives value increase in the next run will put RS up in the top bracket for potential earnings from P2E gaming, regardless of whether any extra cash comes into the game or not. And that's clever. ~110 day ROI, not including rewards from raves, leaderboards, or even music promoter, if you play it right, and not including asset value increases.
If Hive goes to something ridiculous like 10$ and RS doesn't get an extra penny, you'd be looking at a $200 prize pool for a good rave. And 5$ ish a day just for holding number 1 spot on leaderboard.
And that's without even going into the ridiculousness that would be happening with Starpro as people go nuts for police calls and hoax cards. Everyone's fan cards, like the super fans etc, would go through the roof value-wise.

So all this to say I'm pretty confident in my investment in Rising Star, I can't wait to see what the next bull run holds for us all 🙌

If you've read this far I feel like I probably owe you a favour, but I'm going to ask you for one, actually 2 😅😆
First off, if you don't already play Rising Star, check it out, it could quite easily be the best decision you ever make. You dont need to spend anything to play, just log in with you hive account and go for it!

And if you join, make sure to join the Rising Star Discord for giveaways, updates and general game chatter.

Also, if you find this kind of stuff useful, this is my channel The Crypto Cave, i often post this kind of waffle 😆

And the second favour is this, marketing is hella expensive, but sharing a post isn't, and an endorsement from a friend no matter how light, goes so much further than manufactured advertising. We are but a massive network of people, if everyone who sees this shares it, and everyone who sees that shares it, in just a couple of waves, we could of reached more people than RS currently has daily users. If you see this, even if it isnt for you, please share it, because you could just help change someone else's life, whether its a talented musician looking for exposure, or someone looking to make a little extra on the side, you just never know, but you can help to allow people to do their own research and decide if it's for them 👌

Hope you all have an awesome festive season 🙏🎄

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Thank you for your kind words and your belief in what we are doing.

It has been hard to see all the negative comments through the bear market (some quite personal but that's the internet for you!) but having been through an entire crypto cycle before we know that people get salty when they see the value of their tokens decrease.

We have had a plan (which we continue to review and tweak as necessary) to get us through to the next bull market. It is looking like the final capitulation might have happened (barring another black swan) and things are looking rosier!

We are very excited for months and years ahead for sure and have plenty of new features coming!

Thanks again and rock on (or rave on!),
Jux.

As you well say, there are always that kind of ppl on the internet that is going to bash other's work.
Then there are some of us that appreciate it, and maybe because of patience, or loyalty, or both, we keep playing month after month. Because it is a game! If it wasn't fun or enticing, I would not be here. I love music, I love hive, and this is a game about music in Hive ... 🤷‍♂ 😆 Level 170 here! 💪

Thank you for continuing the work on this great project. I'm not as deep as described in this article, but I play RS over 2years now and still enjoy it every day!

No worries my dude, these next few months and years should be interesting to say the least!

I won't weep for any of the nay sayers when the next run comes around and theyre no better off than they were before, like I said, I just keep buying their stuff incredibly cheap 🤣

If you could include on that list of new features some buy/open 10/100 packs buttons, I would be forever grateful, ill take that over an nft 😉😆

Keep up the awesome work man, one day ill learn some programming and try to help lol

P.s. I'm still working on a 'RS Fest', starting low key and hosting a little music event over Xmas, hopefully have some finished tracks to upload soon too, just gotta get some time away from work 😅

Sounds awesome! Take plenty of videos/photos if it happens and if you sign anyone up to start playing the game from the event then tell me their user name and I'll give them a little starter present so they can join the raves!

That's an interesting read. I have seen you and some other accounts buying up lots of cards with quite a few having over 100k. I pump any earnings back into the game to try and get more unique cards. I also use some funds that I earn on other Hive coins. I have no idea what my deck is worth, but then it might not be easy to sell right now. I do hope the Starbits price improves as that will motivate more players.

Well done to @jux on keeping it all going and on balancing out the economy. I am sure that is not easy.

Oh yeah 100% i do the same, and i usually buy a couple hundred dollars extra per month aswell, although my earnings are so high now that the money i spend barely makes a difference anymore lol.
Im trying to get more of the the ones i dont have are really expensive lol. when sb goes back up in value is when ill probably buy the uniques, its basically 500 hive for the next 50 though, not cheap lol.
And yeah its definitely not easy to sell lately, unless youre selling way under market value, that will all change on the next run though.
I think as far as improving the value of starbits, we as a community need to doing some p2p marketing, Jux doesnt have the budget or the time, but we do as a group, if we all make a conscious effort to "advertise" it, even just by sharing posts and spreading the word wherever we can. that alone will go a long way. Word of mouth is by far the best form of advertising 👌

That was a good read :D Thank you

I really enjoy rising star and for a little while there I stopped doing the quests and all that since summer time was keeping me fairly busy, but I am slowly getting back into it as of lately.

One of my favorite things about RisingStar is that there is music to browse and buy and was very happy when I was able to buy music there myself also. The music on there is pretty diverse and feel there is prolly something for just about everyone.

I do have some problems when the screen is loading the cards because there are so many pictures to load and find the market a little hard to go through when it comes to seeing what there is for prices and everything. its just a bit time consuming for everything to load and be looked at one by one I guess.

It has been wonderful to see the game still working after this long now for sure. For now lately I have started back doing some quests, but your enthusiasm for starbits has been fun and facinating for me so perhaps in the near future I will look forward to building back some starbits and going through osme of the music there a it more. I definetly look forward to seeing how the game progresses and being able to follow along with what it can accomplish.

Have you tried NFTmart to manage your cards?
It's a lot more optimised as its sole purpose is the Hive Engine NFT market.

Yea, I have tried it before, and I just looked at it again to see.
It loads pretty good but overall when I pull up rising star cards, I see so many cards, ands thats wonderful and everything, but it is still hard to search by sorted lots, or set or rarities and that kinda thing.
And so to find or I guess browse, I find it easy to be able to filter by types.
And as time goes on it becomes easier to keep track of what I have and want. 🤝

I haven't been following. I usually just long in each day and run a local mini tour support mission. I'll keep at it though

Fantastic post! I have been playing RS for 3 and a bit years after discovering splinterlands in covid and then RS a few months later. One question I have - where do you check account value?

If you tag MrTats on the discord he will send you an invite, he set up a separate discord with a tracker 👌

good work on this, we watch carefully and saw what you are saying!

This was a very good article. You should write more on HIVE. I cheeked your blog and there was only one more article that is 2 years old.
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Thanks, ive been travelling for the past couple years so I haven't really had the time to do anything like this, even now I work full time as ahead chef/kitchen manager so I still dont have a lot of time lol.
And tbh, i wouldnt even know what to write about, this started off as essentially a rant in the discord about people selling out at such low value and how silly it is lol, and i was told i should make it into a post so i did. Im regularly in discord chatting about stuff in general, but how i could transform that into articles i have no idea, if nobody had said anything id of never thought to write this. kinda hard to know what people want to read about, and i dont have the time to be writing stuff nobody wants to read 😅

What if you package what you talk about on Discord into articles? You could try some AI assistant to format the text. It is best to be transparent with the use of AI. Mention the content as your Discord chats edited by AI. This is just a suggestion.
Best of Luck!
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You know what, the game is slowly heading in the right direction. It will take time for deflation to take effect, there is a lack of liquidity so price swings are not uncommon. I look forward to a bright future for the game.

Still feel like I'm learning the game, but having fun as I go along!

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