The volume of global carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere have not changed over the past three years, despite high rates of economic development. Now humanity has a chance to fix the recent success and, most importantly, to improve these indicators.
November 14 Global Carbon Project published its annual analysis of global trends in the carbon cycle, noting the continuing slowdown in emissions growth.
Global carbon dioxide pollution from fossil fuels and industry increased by more than 3% per year in the 2000s, but growth slowed in 2010. Over the last three years the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has stabilized at 36.4 billion metric tons. The reason for a growth in the 2000s, and the subsequent stabilization of researchers believe China operations. In this country, coal consumption growth slowed in 2012. A significant contribution to the stabilization of the US made in 2012, 2015 and 2016.
China produces 29% of global carbon dioxide pollution. In addition, the ups and downs of the Chinese economy have a direct impact on the growth of global emissions. Their number decreased by 0.7% in 2015. According to forecasts, this figure will decrease by 0.5% in 2016.
"It is difficult to say whether there is a delay due to a successful and" smooth "the restructuring of the Chinese economy, or is it a sign of economic instability. However, a sudden reduction in emissions gives hope that the world's largest issuer of gases can further reduce them "- says Glen Peters, one of the study's authors.
On a worldwide decline since 2007, has US influence. In 2015, growth fell by 2.5% and is projected to fall further to 1.7% this year. Against the background of a significant reduction in fossil coal consumption increased consumption of oil and gas over the past two years. This country - the second largest source of CO2 pollution. Its share is 15% of the global contribution.
Some researchers believe that the election of Donald Trump for the post of President of the United States could have an impact on the increase in global CO2 pollution. It is not clear whether the emissions reductions will continue with the United States at Trump because he's going to abandon environmental policy the Obama administration, including the plan of "Clean Power".
Peters hurry to dispel any doubts on this score: "If you focus on the results of the elections in the United States, it is worth noting that the energy of the sun, wind and gas continues to displace coal in US power generation. Trump plans to recover the coal industry is not able to counteract the prevailing market forces, leading to a weakening of the position of coal. "
In 2015, the EU figures rose by 1.4%. According to analysts, such a small splash in the long term will not lead to a subsequent increase in the amount of pollutants in the atmosphere. The sudden jump is associated with an increase in gas consumption. 28 EU Member States owned 10% of global emissions.
Positive trends in Europe, China and the US overlap results in India and other developing countries. On average, over the last decade, emissions increased by 6% each year. In 2015, this figure has increased by 5.2% and continues to grow. In principle, such a result is consistent with the long-term plan to double India's domestic coal production by 2020. They accounted for 6.3% of CO2 emissions.
At the same time, global warming continues to increase its rates. According to preliminary data of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2016 will be the hottest in the history of meteorological observations. Experts have recorded an increase in average temperature of 1.2 degrees Celsius.
This result is close to the limit set by the global agreement on climate change, adopted in Paris last year. He calls to keep the temperature rise in the range of 1.5-2 degrees Celsius. WMO says that 16 of the 17 hottest years belong to this century. The only exception was in 1998, which at the same time was a year of El Niño.
According to Petteri Taalas, head of the World Meteorological Organization in the Russian Arctic air warmed by 6-7 degrees higher than the average temperature. "We are used to change the temperature on the fraction of a degree, but it's quite different," - he said.
Environmental groups and climatologists have said that the report underlines the need for the rapid reduction of carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases that are to blame for warming the planet.
Professor Corinne Le Coeur, director of the Tyndall Center of the University of East Anglia said that part of the CO2 absorbed by the ocean and trees. temperature rise reason in 2015 and 2016 lies in the fact that at this time the trees were not able to absorb more carbon dioxide because of the dry conditions associated with El Niño.
"The level of CO2 in the atmosphere exceed 400 parts per million volume units and continues to rise. This causes the planet to warm up until the emissions are not reduced to zero "- she said.
According to forecasts Peters, emissions growth in the next few years will depend on how can the principles of energy and climate policy to consolidate the positive trend and significantly increase the desire of countries to coordinate their actions with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.
The result of the Global Carbon Project in global carbon dioxide pollution of the atmosphere and its impact on the atmosphere, land and ocean is one of the main tools of the scientific community, designed to combine the measurement and statistical data on human activities with the analysis of simulation results.
The work is published in the journal Earth System Science Data November 14, 2016
DOI: 10.5194 / essd-8-605-2016
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