@abh12345 put up an interesting post yesterday that stimulated some very good conversation but also got me thinking.
In his post, @abh12345 made the case that for focusing upon one's own account. Essentially, his point is we need more of a middle class on STEEM and too many spent time looking for ways to help smaller accounts before they proved themselves dedicated to this blockchain.
It is hard to argue with the number of inactives and the continual decrease in SP for the Planktons. My guess is these people are either cashing out or going inactive.
Overall, his message was to stop looking at the group behind you, focus upon taking your account to the category ahead of you.
The STEEM blockchain needs that.
Here is the post which is suggested reading:
https://steemit.com/steemit/@abh12345/steem-don-t-forget-to-look-up
This brought a response from @preparedwombat that is also suggested reading. This was a link to a post that goes back a couple months which spelled out the numbers on STEEM.
These two articles got me thinking about the STEEM blockchain.
And then I had another Holy S**t moment.
Every single SP is going to be very very valuable. The numbers simply dictate it.
STEEM POWER IS GOING TO BE VERY VERY RARE.
For the newer people, I will state that Steem Power does not exist. It is something that was made up completely. It is virtual in a virtual world.
The unit of measure that is extremely important is MVests. These are denoted in the wallet on Steemit as SP, but it is really the MVests that truly determine it all.
Going back to @preparedwombat's article, we see this:
9pm 14 May
491.38668637498 Steem per MVests
so 2035.05717132 Vests per Steem.
9pm 15 May
491.41228926227 Steem per MVests
so 2034.95114357 Vest per Steem.
Now for the latest number pulled from steemdb.com :
9pm July 2
492.65279941175 STEEM per MVest.
That means in a little over 6 weeks, each MVest is now worth 1.27 STEEM more. Or to reverse it, each MVest now costs 1.27 more STEEM than it did before.
So what does this mean?
Let us use @ned powering down part of his account as an example. It will take him 13 weeks to power down the full amount. Since that is close to twice the time period between @preparedwombat's numbers and mine, we will use 2.54 (1.27 x 2) as the difference in price.
Hence, after 13 weeks, each MVest will cost 2.54 more STEEM than it did when the process started. This means that if @ned turned around and immediately powered up, he would get 7.23 less MVests than he had before. Another way of putting it is that it those 13 weeks cost him a little more than 3550 STEEM.
The advantage for all that are on here now have is that every single MVest (or portion thereof) in one's account is growing. Whatever the number of vests one has, it will take more STEEM in a year to equal that total.
Which brings up the second most exciting point.
According to steemdb.com, there is a current supply of 270,913,633 STEEM. Of that total supply, 192M is powered up. It is important to note that only STEEM that is powered up has influence on the STEEM blockchain and affects voting power (at least with stake based voting). Thus, the 68M STEEM on the open market have no bearing.
@preparedwombat posted a link that laid out the amount of STEEM that will be issued over a 20 year period. Because of the diminishing inflation rate, we are only going to see about 630M at the end of that time (19 years from now).
In two years, 270M STEEM were issued; over the next two decades, there are going to be roughly 360M more STEEM generated.
This means that almost 43% of all the STEEM created in these two decades is already out.
Now for the zinger. In 3 years, there will be over 350M STEEM issueed, of almost 56% of the total. Picture what it will be like to try to get to Minnow status at that time. It would be tough enough if things remained as they are. What will it be like with 5M people on this blockchain? Or 10M? Or 50M?
@preparedwombat was correct, there will not be enough STEEM down the road for everyone to grow their accounts. This will get even tougher if the price of STEEM is $15 instead of $1.50. At that price to buy @ned's stake and power it up will require $22M as opposed to $2.2M.
The moral of this story is powering down is very costly. It is time for every person reading these words to power up as much as possible. Do whatever you can to get more SP in your account. Failure to do so will only make it tougher, it not impossible, in the future.
There will come a time when Dolphin and Minnow are heralded positions on this blockchain. We are going to see a time when the larger accounts cash out. That is the natural flow of financial systems. There will be a point where the return is simply too great for those who were in early.
As they exit, the lower tiers move up in influence. We noted how it will be harder to achieve the same positions in the future, either via purchasing or earning. Hence, each position achieved today is more exalted than most realize. A few hundred SP might not seem like much until you consider the idea of what it will be like to reach that level with 25M people all fighting over the same reward pool.
The bottom line is that every SP is precious. You might not realize that today but you will in a few years. We are all awaiting HF20, the time that, if I recall, the sign-up process will be automated. This could open the floodgates to people joining this blockchain. STEEM is starting to gain a bit more attention, especially among the anti-establishment crowd. The censorship of Google and FB is making some waves. People are looking for an alternative.
A final point that I want to make is that all the applications that will be creating a SMT will require bandwidth for the users of their sites to operate. This means those apps will need to buy STEEM to cover the necessary bandwidth of their users. We are already starting to see a limited supply, a fact that, based upon these numbers, is not going to change much. In fact, it is only going to get worse.
To me, this means there is only one direction things can go. As more is powered up, there is less on the open market. That means Steemians with their stake in SP will be the major beneficiaries. A simply supply and demand equation leads to this outcome.
As long as the development keeps going, which there is no reason to think it will stop, we will be golden.
We should be, SP might be rarer than gold in a few years.
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I've also thought along similar lines before. In a future where STEEM was mass adopted, the average SP in any given account will become less and less. At a certain point, the majority of accounts would have less than 100 SP.
@fyrstikken has written before about the scenario of widespread usage and its consequences on price. $10, $50, $100+ per STEEM is easily possible in the long term. That would make the minnows/dolphins of today in a great position if they have patience.
That point has come and gone. The vast majority of accounts have less than 100 SP. Ballparkish 97% of them? I will crunch the numbers tonight and do a post about it.
Active accounts, though? A lot of them would probably not be. Not to mention people that create hundreds of bot accounts for their resteem services, etc. I guess I can't think of a parameter to filter those out. Even amongst what @penguinpablo calls "accounts transacting" (including all those bottish 3 SP accounts) the percentage should be a good bit more. I'll look forward to the post.
Also, it's worth noting that in the scenario of adoption many more people would buy STEEM if they could use it to buy groceries and do everyday tasks with it. So the average fiat value of accounts would likely go up.
You make a good point. The information should definitely only include accounts that have been active within the last month or so. This would create an accurate picture.
In reality most of the 68-71 reputation range accounts powered down most of their Steem.
5-10-15k Steem is a lot of money to just keep standing there. I noticed those account are now sitting at 2k Steem and less unfortunately. That is a sad reality, people just can't handle the losses and are selling out their SP they busted their asses to make. Most bloggers still do not get the long term advantages of holding SP. Luckily there are people like you that continues educating them.
um no actually most people have stayed powered up man...
price of steem is just down because bitcoin is down, its nothing to do with steem or what steemit inc has done bro, theyre doing a great job...
soon btc will pump even more than it has now that mt gox dump is over and it will bring steem with it. HF20 hivemind communities and SMTs will push steem so high that no one will have any losses.
all the steempower holders that Matter can handle and did handle the "losses" and are all buying MORE steempower getting ready!
@taskmaster4450 Here is something else to Ponder. Just go look at accounts that were here 6 months ago or even a year ago and got some STEEM Power and now for what ever the reason they walked away from STEEMIT and still have balances in there Account and may Never Come Back or if they do Come Back they Lost their password. All the STEEM POWER is Locked UP forever. Less in the Market..............
Oh that is a great point.
I have looked at the growing amount of SP in the inactive category and wondered if it was dead SP. I know a lot of it is given by Steemit so it could be taken back (there are talks of that).
But you are right, there will be SP that is walked away from.
I sent a friend some steempower, and he lost his password just like his password he lost for his 20 BTC! Some people will never learn.m so there will always be more and more sp locked up forever like that! This Steempower ees going to be most valuable ever!
For real, i lost some bitcoin dust when my laptop died, in addition to the forgotten passwords, what about whales who die and never leave their next of kin instructions and passwords? I never ever mentioned steem to my family its just another bookmark...
I have wondered this as well. Why wouldn't there be a negative interest rate for SP? Wouldn't creating a sink hole for SP incentivize usrs to be active while also battling inflation?
Cheers for the mention @taskmaster4450
I'm glad @preparedwombat linked his post yesterday, and the conclusions I came up with are the same as yours - SP will naturally become more valuable, we just have to still be here :)
Hi @taskmaster4450,
Thanks for correlating the numbers. I can tell you that generally what gets measured, then communicated, gets done.
It’s so important to be able to understand what the numbers actually reveal so people can make informed choices...I will continue to hold on. ;)
Thank you for sharing your conclusions.
Rebecca
You are welcome.
I agree. If people focus upon their accounts and what they are doing, it will go a long way.
I think it important for people to realize that even an account with a small amount of SP can have significant value down the road.
Nice Post @taskmaster, thanks your explanation convinced me to power up more today and made it easy!
Very interesting read and article. I have the same vision as you but i also think that people joining today steemit on the hopes of making money is harder than when i signed up because by then my self vote was worth at least 0,01$ and now not even that, so new people have to rely on having a great project, making good comments or buying a stake.
I have some steem in binance that i bought but i still don't know if i should transfer it here and power up or just use it for trade.
It depends if you are here for the long-term, power-up your account will be a wise move!
I'm here for the long term, but i'm more a reader than a creator @chesatochi
I am doing everything I can to hoard SP. I am trying to grow as fast as possible.
On Steemit you grow every day!
We steemians :D
Keep grinding and saving. Steem on!!!
Good Job Walter White......
It seems to be really hard to get going here because of things like votebots and big accounts that don't really give anything back but horde as much SP as possible.
What happens in 19 years when there is no more steem being created or will there be a small amout always going into the reward pool?
There is no way anybody will know what 19 years from now will look like especially in crypto
Very true though i don't understand how steemit would still function if there is no more steem being released.
i lost your mathematics and steem logics somewhere in the middle...
but in one word (or a few) - Whales, Dolphins and Orcas just need this Planktons in millions - more Plankton's votes (mostly these votes are because of, not due of serious reason to vote) - more MVests for the top of Pyramid. And our roles were invented very smart - finally Plankton is the Whales FOOD.
Magnificent article. She, really inspires hope for the future prosperity of STEEM. It remains to wait a little. RESTEEM.
I’m convinced that the best thing that redfish/plankton can do is power up at every opportunity. Do it now when it’s still relatively easy. It is going to get much harder and do so earlier than people might think. SMT’s will be a game changer.
I agree 100% @preparedwombat.
Just curious, you are the go to one for this...how do the 1%, 5%, 10% levels look in terms of SP required....
It would be great if you did a monthly post on that spelling out those numbers. I think most are shocked how little SP is required to get to become a 10%er.
Ask and ye shall receive:
https://steemit.com/steem/@preparedwombat/how-would-you-like-to-be-in-the-top-1-among-the-financial-elite
At the moment I am powering up a little of my SBD every day, after having a period of not powering up at all when the exhange to Steem dropped. Are you saying I would be better off powering it all up @preparedwombat @taskmaster4450?
I'm afraid all the stuff talked about in this post is beyond me.
I'm powering up slowly and steadily (hoping the exchange to Steem will improve) but am now wondering if I'd be better off doing it all in one go.
I power up my Steem every day.
If you wait until the price of SBD’s goes up, it’s a gamble. It might also go down. Also, when you power up, it appears that you are acquiring SP but, under the hood as it were, you are really acquiring Vests. And the number of Steem needed to buy X amount of vests is always slowly rising.
Blimey. It really is very confusing @preparedwombat.
It's a bit late in the day for me. I think I need to come back and read this post again.
It's interesting that no-one seems to talk about Vests much. It's all SBD and Steem and SP. And yet it it seems that this what is what is really critical!
I really would like to get my head around this.
Thank you for your input!
hi @taskmaster,
Read your article. Found it interesting in my perspective as i am newbiw on this platform. Some terms like planktons were new to me. I am digging more to get comfortable on this platform.according to me, people are getting inactive because they are expecting good money n short time and without giving value to steemit community. They should u'stand that this is outrightly impossible.
Thanks
I believe you are correct. The fact is that there are people out there on FB and YT promoting STEEM as a get rich quick scheme. When people post and get no upvotes, they become discouraged and leave.
Things will have to change then or else new people in the future are not going to get on well here
This is the best article i have read in a while, for some reason i thought the amount of steem generated kept going up every year. I see big accounts powering down and cashing out, i just see that as an opportunity. I'm going to build as much SP as humanly possible thinks for the inspiration resteemed
Thank you @taskmaster4450, for the info about SteemPower, I never knew about it that its value will be keeps growing up.
Nowadays there are so many new accounts, most of them are not serious, they just wanna give it a try, they never try to learn any unknown things over here, but still there are so many starters also there with so much determination to learn and grow here in this Steemit community.
So, my request to whales, dolphins is that please support new comers, who are serious about steemit.
Thank you that was really informative, never thought about it.
I think a big thing that will help the redistribution is developing a better UI so that whales don't have to fight the backlog of garbage posts just to upvote someone that puts effort into their work. We have discord channels that are starting to help with this.
Whales don't want to hoard wealth because by upvoting lower users and creating connections those users will follow them back thus creating a positive feedback loop.
Having active followers upvote me > hoarding wealth from users who are struggling
That's why your SP value goes up over time because the Mvests are worth more as the blockchain grows. I love knowing that I am getting more power just from having my stake vested. It is another encouragement to keep posting and commenting, and then powering up, because that's only going to keep growing faster.
If you want to track it, you can do so here...
https://steembottracker.com/steemdash/?account=themanwithnoname
I'm really easily entertained, so I had to close that window. Otherwise, I could have spent all day just watching the numbers roll by. Ha ha. :)
Very interesting and important information friend greetings
Great article. I'm still trying to understand all there is to know about STEEM and SP, I don't totally get it to tell the truth. I did just power up all my steem and now I'm proud to say I have 23SP and my vote is worth 1 penny! Step by step, it be cool to be a minnow one day indeed.
Pleasant Post @taskmaster, thanks your clarification persuaded me to control up more today and made it simple
Very good info, this schould be a read for everyone. If you believe in Steemit like I do power up! I’m trying to build up SP/ MVest, the market is down for all Crypto when it goes back up and it will, people will flood back into Steem 👍. Resteemed!!!
I just did a post here promoting a function on Steemit called SteemAuto and how I am giving you a 100% upvote on every post that you do!
Keep up the good work, Master!
This is the kind of thing I definitely wish to hear, and need more time to go over the details - but the basic premise is what i have been thinking, which is why i'm currently powering up every post and comment!
You are making interest with your Steem Power!