I've both won and lost with Magic Dice. It can really suck when you lose (and it can happen several times in a row) but it is also possible to win. Seems to work as advertised and they even upvote players randomly. The value of the tokens will really depends on the adoption of Steem and the game in general, but the more reasons to draw players to the blockchain the better. Just remember the old adage of not betting more than you can afford to lose.
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Yup, I got burned a few times in a row. The probability of it happening was astronomical.
Above 50 probability should be about 50% each time, so for it to be above 50 ten times in a row should be less than 0.1% chance, but it happens.
(1/2)^10*100%
I did the math on Magic Dice using the 94% bet which pays 1.043 STEEM if you win.
So:
If you bet 1 STEEM each time and play 100 times:
You will win 94 times for .043 STEEM = 4.042
You will lose 6 times for 1 STEEM = 6
At the end of 100 rolls you will have lost 1.958 STEEM
Then looking at 50% bet which pays 1.960 STEEM if you win.
If you bet 1 STEEM each time and play 100 times:
You will win 50 times for 0.960 STEEM = 48
You will lose 50 times for 1 STEEM = 50
At the end of 100 rolls you will have lost 2 STEEM
I am not a gambler, but took at look at this the other day. I might be missing something, but this is how I think it goes.
You also gain the Magic tokens which I am gambling on the possibility of them being worth something.
Hmm... I wonder how much that would factor in? I don't think there is any way to know in advance.
Magic Dice has rewarded your post with a 85% upvote. Thanks for playing Magic Dice.