I would like to start this short opinion article with a full disclaimer: I absolutely love @dan technical genius and, on many points, our philosophical views are very similar.
With that being said, let's give you the Tl/DR version first:
I don't see any significant future of a "Steemit 2.0 clone on EOS"
Now The Long Version
If you followed EOS development and narrative during the last few months, you probably observed a recurring theme: re-loading Dan Larimer's former projects, BitShares and Steemit, on a new technical foundation. Basically, on EOS.
As a technical exercise, and as a PR stunt to show the capabilities of the EOS blockchain, I totally understand the idea. I think it would be really nice for EOS potential adopters to see real-life projects implemented - and working.
But as a business operation, I hope Dan and his investors are not setting up big hopes for this.
Because, beyond the technical layer, in any projects there is another one, equally important: people. Or, in our case, early adopters of the Steemit.com platform, from investors to authors and curators. Moving around this layer is way, way more difficult than moving the technical layer.
I still remember a situation from ten years ago, when Facebook was just exploding. On many PHP scripts sites there were literally hundreds of ready-made "Facebook clones". It was pretty much all the functionality of Facebook (of course, without the gigantic backend processing capabilities they have) in an instantly available form. All you had to do was to download the script, spin up a MySQL db and there you go, you have your own Facebook.
Did you ever hear a success story based on one of those scripts? No?
I thought so.
Because there wasn't really any.
We are in a similar spot right now. The "Steemit 2.0 on EOS" will be just another "Facebook clone" script.
The human layer is very inertial. Once they got the taste for something, it takes a lot of time and money to move this layer to another thing. Steemit.com is already 2 years old, and although it didn't reach a critical mass (compared with giants like Twitter or Facebook) it still has a sizable amount of regulars. In my opinion, we're talking about a core of more than 80k regulars.
This is not even remotely enough for taking on Twitter (not even Medium, for what matters) but it's enough for having consistency and potential. STEEM is still hovering around $200-$300 million market cap, which is not to be ignored. That amount of money is also inertial and it takes a lot to convince people invested to move around their assets.
If you don't believe me, just try to remember the ETH/ETC split. ETC is still on the market, is having a $1.5 billion market cap and it's a top twenty crypto asset.
So, even if "Steemit 2.0 on EOS" will get some traction, I wouldn't see it doing that good, in terms of business.
Yes, it may be a good PR stunt - even a necessary one, to showcase the capabilities of EOS - but I don't see it overcoming Steemit.com in terms of popularity, impact or exact market cap.
Thoughts?
I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua.
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you have some good points here my friend
Community is a key part and Steemit has a good one. Just see how many turned up to the London Crypto Show. Building that from scratch is not easy
After Steem was created the first time, there was nothing technically hard about it. Recreating it technically, is a nothing-burger.
But the fanbase... the best you can hope for is to get 50% of the old market onto the new platform.... which will kill both.
Dan really needs new ideas to make any impact. Which is kinda hard when you are trying to get your new project ship-shape.
I've said this from the start. Tech can be bolted in and bolted out. A userbase can't.
Thanks for this, this is certainly one of the better - because calm - contributions to the Steemit vs . Steemit 2.0 discussions. Together with the devaluation of the Steem token there is a little panic building about Steem 2.0. I agree that Steemit has a well developed community and a building eco-system.
But then EOS has established a quite lively community itself by now, and the many dapps, games etc. will be a good source for discussion and chat, so community might build well and swiftly. And then STEEM as the blockchain and in particular Steemit the platform, are fare away from what Facebook even in its earliest days had to offer, and i am sure what @Dan intends to do is far beyond of a simple copy, he knows the system as no other, and if anyone can make improvement it's him.
But still i don't see a need for panic, as said the community is there, and to repeat my mantra, competition drives business and i'd say Steem and Steemit are in urgent need for some competition.
I agree about Steemit 2.0. There would have to be some pretty compelling reasons to get me to just leave STEEM, now that I have time and fiat invested here. Potentially, there would be a chance to have a foot in each door, which would make more sense to me than just jumping ship. It takes some time to develop a sense for things, and then decide if you can deal with what's there, and then make it work. It can't all happen in a blink of an eye. And with it so new, it is still untested and will have some catching up to do technically, in usability, in user base, in community, and in governance.
EOS (block.one) has a bigger issue than creating a Steemit 2.0 to showoff its capabilities compared to Steem. If they don't deliver/convince on their marketed much better solution to Etherium, attempting to create a better version of Steemit will go totally unnoticed. With or without community (and in their case it's without).
I fully agree with you, a "remake" of a great hit does not used to be as good as the original version... and I cannot see the reason @dan would like to do it anyway...
Steem on mate!!!
Has the 2.0 launched yet?
I heard EOS already has more transactions than Steem.
Yup. These are right assumptions but steem has to introduce new features quickly to increase its user base in order to ride on first mover advantage
Making a copy of something non-technical is 10 times harder then doing it the first time.
At least.
And in this case, all the people interested in that certain type of "write on the blockchain" are already invested here, so the initial potential is way lower than it was at steemit start.
EOS is a fantastic promise project and platform. Even though Block One team does not launch a new Steemit, there are others which may use the platform to do so. There are already projects launching tokens with similar ideas of posting and getting paid from other users (Karma, ONO and Challenge) votes as well as decentralized exchanges (EOSfinex).
IMO, there are two big barriers Steem already have, which are an existing audience and proven concept.
If you just copy but do not bring additional value, there are many chances you will end up failing, but I am curious about how the whole EOS ecosystem develops with all the coming apps and projects and of course, some competition may push new development speed into Steemit.
I think you are 90% right and this article is something that i have been waiting for long because i had already asked you this.
The 10% that i think you might be wrong is if this new STEEM 2.0 has better features, design and huge improvment over current steemit. Just the fact of on the spot signup and approval would be a huge change.
Nevetheless, i still think that community is what makes steemit great and for steem 2.0 to get to the current place of steemit (steem 1.0) would take a considerable amount of time.
I agree, also for another reason: EOS/block.one won't be a good competitor because they're not focused on building a blogging platform. Unfortunately, Steemit Inc. isn't focused on blogging either.
I think it will really be hard to dethrone Steemit,there is more potential here as more people are investing here.
I see new Dapps coming up day in and day out.Let the Eos guys try their luck though.
With @Dlive,@Dtube,@utopian-io ,and other dapps growing,it will take a genius to outcompete Steemit now!
Thanks for your thoughts @dragosroua
Thanks for sharing this
So...the habits will always everlast...we'll have same patterns via this new blockchain technology? Maybe i was right when i've said that some people will migrate from fb or other platforms with same habits. Hopefully steemit won't become a next fb and then after 10 yrs.will vanish like myspace or some other platforms...
Thanks for sharing this anniway
Have a Blessed Day @dragosroua
That was very eloquently put my man! The human factor absolutely cannot be underestimated.
The fact is that Steem Blockchain has Dapps that have a very sound community base. Not only that but the fact that being the first on the scene Steemit has the advantage of the Lindy effect. That too has its roots in the human element of this market.
@dan loves all of his children, I don't think he needs to change anything about the ways STEEMIT works currently................@dragosroua we will be just fine here.............
I do appreciate steemit, but I wonder if it will become like myspace to facebook as other platforms using blockchain technologies come online and stand on the shoulders of what steemit started?
I do agree with your thoughts and as seen by the facts the users who have been long in here will not not just leave the Steemit just because of the Steemit 2.0 .As for the fact about duration Steemit like you said is 2 years ahead it sure will be a plus point for all users in here !
Well lets see what happens !
i think we still need to work on this platform before we try to create another one, the price has fallen drastically and hopes of it going up? Im not sure anymore. What are your thoughts on that?
My thoughts about the price? I maintain my expectations to see STEEM on the $10-$12 corridor by the end of the year. But please don't trade based on my assumptions :)
I kind of buy into your idea a little if I understand
you well, we are talking of an upgrade here, an upgrade that might not favour the market at the long run. Right?
I've been playing around with the platform for awhile. It is useful as a blogspace, but that isn't all that rare.
To take this further, and start using the crypto aspect, I would need a lot of convincing. Things like random anonymous downvotes, malicious attacks by wealthier posters and the hilariously bad front page are what keeps me on the 'safe' side (not using the crypto) so maybe this move will iron out some of those wrinkles.
I like the people I have met here just fine. Love some of the writing, but as I pointed out in the beginning, there has to be more before I (and presumably others) will count on it enough to engage the crypto part (which might be the more interesting part)
I don't see how these can be solved with tech :)
Me neither. I will still hang around, but for more 'buy-in' I would need more confidence...more understanding.
I didn't buy in immediately either. I did a 30 days writing challenge, in order to better understand the platform and the community. At the end of the challenge I wasn't stoked, but the overall result was positive, so I stayed.
One and a half year later I congratulate myself every day for this decision.
I agree with everything your saying but steemit has a whale problem thats is flaw. If steemit 2.0 can adress that then it could win.
What's the "whale" problem on Steemit?
well they can do many wonders but steemit is unique and very different no use of any v2.0
Although your deduction seems correct, in my humble opinion, there is a huge difference to the 'facebook clone situation'.
Here is a lot of things about the money. The newcomers of steemit.com get disappointed quite quickly because they realize that without a huge or bigger investment hardly anybody will be successful here comparing to the early adopters. I'm not saying that it is impossible but very, very difficult.
A new platform could be lucrative for many of us where we also could be early adopters and reach more financial success than here. For this reason, many active accounts will move there.
But it's only my prediction... And 'it's very hard to predict especially about the future.' :-)
If "Steemit 2.0" will be anything like Steemit.com, then the "problem" above will plague it just as well, isn't it? There will be a wave of early adopters, then the adoption will slow down because, well...
For the sake of the conversation, I don't agree with this so called "newcomers problem". Even if you start from scratch right now on Steemit, you can still make a decent living off of your writing, much better than any other social media outlet now. Instagram, YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, etc, all require a lot of time for building a sizable audience, and only after you have that audience you can start thinking about how to monetize it.
Yes, you're right, I consider too, that steemit.com is still the better solution to earn some money. But you have to be damn good and talented and it demands lots of efforts. People don't like to make efforts. If you are an early adopter that is a huge multiplier of your chances even if you are not gifted. And people like to take chances. :-)
I checked sometimes @anniversary posts (it stopped recently). It's really sad that so many people are leaving. According to its last post, two years ago 337 people joined Steemit and only two of them are still active. The drop-out is too big, there are hardly new improvements. Many of those who came because of the money they are moving forward. That way it is really tough to build an audience.
And if you have this experience with steemit.com you will give it a thought to join something similar, where you can be among the first ones.
Wasn't this the whole idea? To reward people who are damn good and talented and who are putting in a lot of efforts?
@dragosroua,
I don't know much about technical things! But in here we are earning STEEM which is a pure blockchain currency and STEEM also has potential to scalable like EOS do too!
If @dan intro STEEMIT 2.0 it might be another token project on EOS! Moreover with SMT (Hope it will be here) this blockchain and platform might expand more! So, it's better @dan think about STEEM as one of the major competitor of EOS than thinking about compete against STEEMIT!
Cheers~
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Well said dragosroua. It surprises me that there are only 80 thousand active members on Steemit.I read that there is a long wait for new member applications?
On the other hand it appears there are more start up wannabe's after Steemit's market - like -
https://steemit.com/steemit/@omfedor/new-media-platform-where-good-authors-get-good-reward-for-good-content-let-s-create-it-together
Guys, I want to announce that I'm looking for like-minded people who are tired of the strange money distribution system in Steemit.
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STOPTo support your work, I also upvoted your post!
Community is a key part and Steemit has a good one. Just see how many turned up to the London Crypto Show. Building that from scratch is not easy
Steem needs some competition in this market. That's good right. Let's see how this EOS Steem 2.0 works.