We’re getting into the final stages of the hardwood flooring project. This morning we chose the stain color and the first few coats of this will be on the floor by the end of the day today.
We chose the lightest stain (on the bottom of the photo below) which is essentially just a clear coat. The darker stain colors bring out more of the random natural grain pattern in the maple planks and it looks splotchy. We’re learning much more about hardwood floors than we anticipated throughout the course of this renovation.
Since this is a water-based clear coat the dry time is only three hours and the smell should be gone by Friday. With any luck we’ll be back in the house by the end of the week. This lighter flooring will make the space seem larger and brighter and should work out pretty well with the mid-century modern style furniture we plan on using. The peace won’t last long because the kitchen flooring, countertops, and cabinet refacing begins soon.
The True Price of Going Mainstream
This crypto market cycle is proving to be the strangest in history. The OG, Bitcoin, has had much less volatility compared to past cycles and less predictable moves. Analysts have attributed this lack of volatility to Wall Street’s increasingly large stake. They're scooping up more and more coins with every dip.
Most Wall Street firms and large banks have well over a century of experience manipulating markets and they’re using everything they’ve learned to influence the crypto market. There’s no way in a million years I’d dabble in leveraged trades these days. As they say about casinos, “the house always wins” and the house is now Wall Street. Despite less dramatic price decreases, investors (especially those new to Bitcoin) seem to be having disproportionate freak outs to these smaller drops in price. This is the first bull market for many investors and it shows.
Last week over $19B dollars was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market as a whole, this was prompted by President Trump’s announcement of future tariffs on China. This was 19x the March 2020 Covid crash and 9x the downturn sparked by the FTX crash. Despite the massive outflows last week Bitcoin managed to have only dropped around 9.3% in price—which is pretty impressive. Despite this stability I miss the volatility I remember from the days of old.
For better or worse, it’s pretty safe to say Bitcoin has grown up and the crypto space isn’t what it once was. Fewer and fewer investors know or even care about the original fundamentals that Bitcoin was built on. Phrases like—decentrailized, immutable, trustless, permissionless aren’t uttered nearly as often now. I’ve found myself looking back on previous market cycles and having a whole lot of nostalgia for those old days.
For most investors today Bitcoin is merely an investment vehicle. I suppose this is the true price of an asset like this going mainstream. Despite this I remain extremely optimistic, long term (10 years), and if there’s a better investment out there I don’t know what it is. I’ll be continuing my strategy of dollar cost averaging into BTC on a monthly basis using credit card cash rewards and high interest savings account yields.
I’ll always remember the vibe a decade ago when we all thought cryptocurrency would change the whole world for the better. I suppose for some people and in some ways Bitcoin really is changing the world for the better maybe just not exactly in all the ways the Cypherpunks envisioned. The days when just anyone can own a Bitcoin are quickly coming to a close. However, there’s still time, in this world pretty much anything is possible. Satoshi Nakamoto was thinking so many moves ahead that sometimes I can’t help but wonder if he was a time traveler.
As always, this isn’t meant to be investment advice. Please do your own research.
All for now. Thanks for reading.
From what I have read, this month promises to be hectic for cryptocurrencies. I have read that the month is expected to be full of many bullish... but also bearish opportunities. We just have to wait and keep our fingers crossed. I am glad that the renovation is going smoothly and that you will soon be able to return to your home. A hug.
BTC is now a speculative mainstream asset that is available via multiple ETFs so Wallstreet is here. At 2.26 Trillion dollar market cap BTC is larger than all world companies except for the top 5.
Going forward I would expect BTC to produce longer term returns similar to Amazon...
I agree. That would be a believable trajectory. According to Grok we can expect 10x from here if it follows the performance of Amazon stock in the past decade.
To determine how much Amazon’s stock (AMZN) has risen over the last ten years, we need to compare its price from October 2015 to October 2025 and calculate the percentage increase. Based on available data, I’ll use the closing prices for consistency.
• October 2015 Closing Price: The data indicates that the price was approximately $27.30 (adjusted for splits).
• October 2025 Closing Price: The latest closing price on October 10, 2025, was $216.37.
Calculation of Price Increase
1 Price Change:
$216.37 (2025) - $27.30 (2015) = $189.07
2 Percentage Increase:
($189.07 / $27.30) × 100 = 692.58%
Total Return Consideration
The price increase reflects only the stock price appreciation. However, total return accounts for price appreciation plus reinvested dividends. Since Amazon does not pay dividends, the total return equals the price return. Data confirms a 10-year total return of approximately 735.28% to 758.70% depending on the exact dates, aligning closely with the price increase calculation.
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
The 10-year CAGR for Amazon’s stock price is reported as approximately 23.77% to 25.18%. This indicates the annualized growth rate over the period.
Summary
Amazon’s stock price has risen approximately 692.58% from October 2015 to October 2025, based on the closing prices of $27.30 in 2015 and $216.37 in 2025. The total return, which matches the price increase due to no dividends, is around 735–758% over the decade, with a CAGR of about 23.77–25.18%. For a visual representation of the stock price movement, refer to the finance card above.
I think it can push a little bit higher than that (BTC) - when taking the inevitable halvings into account.
I think that's possible given enough time. I do worry about quantum computing breaking the encryption but hopefully someone will work out a defense against that threat.
I love the clear coat the best. Glad you are going with that. Does it have a UV additive?
We are prepping the floors for sanding this weekend. Poor Jamie is absolutely exhausted. Last coat on ceiling today.
I don't even understand what leveraged trading is lol.
It's a water-based product called Bona Traffic HD and it looks like there is a UV additive. The scent wasn't nearly as bad as an oil based product would have been. You can walk on it after about three hours too.
Leveraged trading is basically just borrowing capital from an exchange to invest with. You then "bet" on a long or short position. You can either make or lose a lot more than you would have with just your own money in direct relation to the amount of money you borrow. It's very dangerous.
Floor will look great when its done. What a massive job to do, though. I am a fan of what we call "floating floor", engineered timber - I regret not getting rid of the carpet that is in my office and replacing it, because now, if I want to do thata, I have to move /everything/ out - and well, that's not really possible without major disruption to the rest of the house, because all the smart home stuff lives in a massive server rack in my office. :D
Thanks, we got a glimpse of the almost finished floor yesterday evening and it looked wonderful. I like those floating floors. I had Pergo installed in one of my first houses and loved it. This kind of work is so disruptive. I'm glad it'll be a one-and-done type thing.
Probably not much chance of me owning a full Bitcoin if the alts don't manage to do something soon... The house is looking good! They still on track to wrap up before Thanksgiving?
It's so tough now with the price where it is sitting. My DCA strategy just gets me a very small fraction per month but it adds up. It'll be interesting to see how low BTC goes during the next bear market. Since this bull market was had such lower volatility I imagine it will be the same on the other side. Thank you! The Thanksgiving deadline is at risk now because of the tariff/customs situation on the Canadian border. The company doing our kitchen remodel uses a Canadian company for their cabinet doors and timelines are crazy now due to hold-ups through customs. It's become a bit of a bottleneck and might push things into December.
Ugh, that sucks. The good news is you could still host even without cabinet doors. It might look funny, but it's better than no plumbing or electricity! Yes, I think the swings are going to be much different now. As you said, alts took a dump, but BTC didn't even drop below $100K. It's starting to get more stable now which is what people have been expecting for a while I think.
If things don't start moving soon we'll probably have them halt the entire kitchen portion until after Thanksgiving. I think you're right. We're going to see BTC and ETH now become a lot more controlled price-wise. Alt coins that have actual utility might do very well but I think the days are numbered for alts that have no real world purpose.
I'm actually not opposed to that. We have been saying for a while now that there are just too many alts, but somehow more and more keep popping up! Best of luck with the remodel!
I'm not opposed to that either. I remember before meme coins really became big most coins needed to have some kind of real world use-case to grow their market cap. Thanks! We're one step closer. The floors were completed yesterday and look fantastic.
That's great news about the floors. Yeah, things were so different back in the "good old days" 😀
I'm with you about BTC. I am sad that it has basically lost all the original purpose and has become just another Wall Street asset. I'm happy it has made me some money, but on the other hand, I'd rather it maintain its original purpose and reform the entire system. I suppose that was always unrealistic, and now that we've sold out to wall street, it will never happen. I'm just a little nostalgic for the dreaming, I suppose.
Glad to see the floor coming along. It will look nice when finished!
I remember how exciting the vibe was after the Housing Crisis of 2008. It felt revolutionary and owning BTC made you feel as though you were a part of it. People were fed up with the traditional financial system and demanded change, that spirit carried through for a little over a decade before complacency kicked in. Everyone was dreaming of mass adoption but weren't focused enough on the downsides of that. It looks like the US is set to use their seized BTC to do a kind of economic reset. With this wave of AI and robotics set to eliminate so many jobs I feel bad for those people who don't own at least some BTC. It will be a life raft for many.
Thanks! They finish up today and we'll be moving back in on Friday.
It is interesting how Wall Street is currently influencing the market, but it also makes me think if we have lost some of the original vibe of cryptocurrency.
The original vibe is pretty much gone, except for the OGs and small pockets of true-believers here and there.
#hive #posh
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