BTC update 15.03.2020

in #bitcoin4 years ago (edited)

As you probably noticed already, we faced the worst week ever in Bitcoin history.

BTC dropped a whopping 59% (from 9200 to 3800) within just 6 days in March 2020.

My initial reaction was "Wow, what a great buying opportunity."

The problem is, that I know how low the probability is, that this is a second wave 2 correction (third pic). Yes, a wave 2 can retrace 99.99% and still be valid, but the probability of it being a wave 2 after crossing the 88% retracement is only 5%.

So I have to favor the more bearish count over the two bullish ones. The bearish one expects BTC to drop to 1000$ or close to that.

Here are the 3 most probable alternates:

Bitcoin BTC_USD(31).png
Bitcoin BTC_USD(1).png
Bitcoin BTC_USD(21).png

Is there a chance that BTC has already seen the low and is now preparing the stairway to heaven (new ATH)? Yes absolutely, but the probability from an Elliott Wave perspective is not good enough for me to buy more right now.

This will only change if we see a clear impulse wave up now.

I will never sell my BTC at a loss. Either the money is gone, or I win. I am fine with whatever happens to BTC next.

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yes, all or nothing- not selling at any loss- keep or die is the only way, but i think it will not die, maybe more lower, as soon some more problems comes in the crisis with corona, but it will not die. We will be happy later that we keep it and even buy now more

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what about steem ?

I see Steem a 3 cents and possibly below that.
We will then see a big bounce, or if not, Steem will be dead. If the community moves to a new chain, it's a dead coin anyway.

I believe that if Bitcoin tanks, Steem will see massive bloodshed, too.

STEEM may die as a speculative shitcoin just like Bitcoin is, to be honest. But I don't think it will die as a utility coin. As long as the chain runs, there will be some demand for it. The content on Steem created by its users is what ultimately makes it valuable, not some despicable speculative negative sum game like the entire crypto market in the last ten years. What makes it valuable to create content on Steem is the freedom from censorship. You should try using Quora, for instance. Nasty censorship on a daily basis. It's bullshit. I will always continue to post to Steem regardless of the monetary value of the rewards, at least by cross posting from elsewhere. Why would people stop using Steem just because it doesn't pay? Billions of people use social media every day without getting paid at all. The very concept is completely alien to the vast majority of people.

If STEEM drops below 1 cent, it will be unprofitable to maintain a witness node even for justin. That's -50$*20 per month unpaid costs for witness servers . Of course he can easily run those for 50 years, but as a business man don't you think he would likely look for something more profitable?

If Justin bolts because STEEM goes below 1 cent, it will be only good for the ecosystem. Getting rid of Justin under any circumstances would be a cause for celebration.

According to @aggroed, running a full node costs $20 a month after MIRA was implemented. That's a like cable subscription.

More importantly than the right this second discussion is that MIRA seems pretty close. MIRA allows nodes to run with data that's currently stored in ram to be stored on hard drives. The difference in cost for that is staggering. A full node would drop from 512Gb of Ram to closer to 8 or 16 Gb. The server would go from something like $650/month to something closer to $20/month. Witness nodes are gonna be less. So, now run the math again. If it only costs $20 a month and yeah you probably run 2 for $40/month as long as you can make more than $480/yr there will be people willing to donate time to run them. Post MIRA the discussion of closing my witness starts if steem hits 0.004 cents per steem.


I see Steem at 3 cents only if Bitcoin touches 1k dollars.
In terms of STEEM/BTC it steadily grows last weeks (as most altcoins do).

 4 years ago  Reveal Comment