And you won't believe what he predicts next...
Kay Van-Peterson raised some eye brows late last year when he made the bold call that Bitcoin would break the $2000 mark easily in 2017.
At the time Bitcoin was trading for around $700 per coin and had never traded anywhere close to his prediction levels.
Fast forward less than a year later and his prediction was right (and then some) as Bitcoin nearly reached $2800 so far this year.
After regrouping and reassessing the current market place for Bitcoin, Kay Van-Peterson had this to say about where he thinks Bitcoin goes next.
"I think you see Bitcoin reaching $100,000 dollars per coin within the next 10 years"
Yes you read that right, $100,000?! That would represent almost a 50X return from current levels.
This would not be the first time someone has thrown out outrageous price predictions regarding bitcoin.
I wrote a piece a couple weeks ago talking about Wences Casares and his million dollar Bitcoin call. It can be read here:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@jrcornel/want-to-become-a-bitcoin-millionaire-here-s-how
How does Van-Peterson arrive at Bitcoin $100,000 within 10 years?
He says that he is assuming cryptocurrencies will account for roughly 10 percent of the average daily volume of all fiat currency trading within the next 10 years. The average daily dollar volume currently for the currency markets is just over $5 trillion dollars. Take 10% of that and you get $500 billion.
According to Van-Peterson, Bitcoin will account for roughly 35% of that total market share ($500 billion). Which comes out to roughly $175 billion of Bitcoin traded on a daily basis.
From there Van-Peterson says that Bitcoin's market cap should be roughly 10X it's current average daily trading volume. Which would be 10 x $175 billion, or $1.75 trillion.
By his calculations, there should be approximately 17 million bitcoins in circulation 10 years from now at the current inflation rate. Then if you divide that 17 million number of coins by a market cap of $1.75 trillion, you get a price per coin of roughly $100,000.
He will be the first to admit that this is a very rough calculation that is subject to many variables between now and then.
However, at least he attempted to use some data and (arguably) reasonable projections to back up his dollar target.
Whether you believe his projections or not, this was my big take away:
After finishing talking about his calculations for why he thinks Bitcoin will reach $100,000, Van-Peterson concluded with this:
"Cryptocurrencies will survive in the long run. This is not a fad. Cryptocurrencies are here to stay."
In his opinion there will likely emerge a handful of winners from the space and Bitcoin will be one of those winners mostly because of it's first mover advantage.
Now, we just have to make sure Steem is one of those handful of winners as well...
Personally I kind of doubt his $100,000 price prediction, but I also didn't think Bitcoin would almost hit $3k just 6 months ago, so there is that.
I found his conviction regarding the entire cryptocurrency space in general very, shall we say, encouraging.
Stay believing my friends!
Sources:
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/31/bitcoin-price-forecast-hit-100000-in-10-years.html
https://cointelegraph.com/news/cnbc-covfefe-bitcoin-price-could-hit-100000-in-10-years
Image Sources:
https://www.crypto-news.net/bitcoin-hit-2000-usd-2017/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-10/hard-to-lose-money-on-european-stocks-van-petersen
http://www.notey.com/blogs/bitcoin
Follow me: @jrcornel
Great post glad to hear he thinks in 10 years BTC will be at $100,000 that is insane!
My prediction is $10K in September
If your prediction is right I will be very happy and nearly in a position to be able to retire :)
My hope is that people who get into Crypto stay there. I think retiring early is a nice goal but I'm hoping that people have a mindset that bitcoin IS the future currency and not one to just invest into just to sell back into FIAT. What we really need is for McDonalds to have a little window sign bitcoin accepted here (mainstream to accept it as a payment method in other words).
I agree with you, but have a hard time seeing how this would work, at least in a capitalistic society. In such a society, it really requires a small positive inflationary adjustment every year. This is what keeps people buying things, because the price is always going up. If prices stayed the same, (or went down as in a deflation) there is no incentive to make that big purchase now, if I can get by a little while longer without it.
That said, another alt coin that does not have a hard limit, can certainly and likely will be used in the future. But if it can be mined ad nauseam, then we are right back to square 1 again.
Buying a house with 10 BTC, that would be a nice purchase!
If Japan keeps expanding its store usage we will surely see 5k or higher by years end..
We all hope for that :)
Another excellent piece on top of being able to educate us on the potential of Bitcoins future. By the looks of it, I had heard from another excellent analyst that Bitcoins should reach the $8000.00 mark by the end of the year...
Thanks a bunch and namaste :)
Yes I have heard all kinds of numbers being thrown around. I read $4k today. That might be the most conservative number, but still represents massive percentage gains on the year. Namaste :)
$4k btc, $8k btc...I think what we can all agree on is there is no precedent for this type of growth which leads me to believe, even as outrageous as many of these predictions seem - there is a possibility even for some of the most extreme, that it is possible. Whether you are in the game or on the sidelines, it's going to be an interesting show.
Why do you doubt Bitcoin will reach $100K? There are plenty of predictions on Youtube from business types that Bitcoin will reach a value anywhere from $100K to $5million each. This will be attributable to a combination of a weaker dollar and the proliferation of Bitcoin in our lives and in commerce AND the inspired property it posesses of being a deflationary currency thanks to its limited coin run. The days of dealing in whole Bitcoins will be numbered as it becomes more and more valuable, with transactions using micro Bitcoin payments (remember Bitcoin is effectively infinitely divisible) with common fractions of Bitcoins commanding their own terms.
1 Steem = 0.00041700 BTC
0.000417 * $100,000 = $41.70 for 1 STEEM :-D
I think is is easier for 1 STEEM to reach $42, then it is for 1 BTC to hit 100K. . Never the less - both are very realistic. Only the mater of years (not decades)
10$ would be pretty decent right now.
This made me want to do some digging. So I made this: https://steemit.com/steemit/@trevorlyman/steem-growth-outpaces-bitcoin-during-past-60-days
You're right, Steem is growing much faster than BTC so it's reasonable to believe if BTC hits 100K STEEM might hit $1k, given 10 more years of advancement, etc.
But I think we're going to see an explosion in Steem with some of the new improvements they have lined up.
damn home so.
Haha can we lock that in?! ;)
interesting .. 10 years?
that's quite a wait
the guys who claim they are btc experts in the cashflow game said it would hit 4k this Dec and then 40k in 3 to 5 years ..
after 10 years I'm almost 50 haha
100 k per coin? thin .. haha
An old rich billionaire!!!! I like the sound of that
think young rich billionaire (:
Oh I will even follow the guys between like Jeremy Liew, Tim Draper, Chamath Palihapitiya, Sir Richard Branson, Wences Casares and so on what all say between 500k - 1mio 2030 :)
Yea, I mean we will see I guess. Grab a bitcoin or 2 as well as a couple of your favorite altcoins (steem), stash them in a safe place and then just wait for the next decade to come and go. We will have our answer then. :)
exactely - better a few hundret, hehe :)
Thank you for taking the time to put this post together. My biggest take away from this is that cryptocurrency is not a fad and it is here to stay. This is very encouraging and reinforces my research. Thanks again. Followed and upvoted.
That was my biggest take away as well. Thanks for the follow!
I don't care if BTC will reach 100k price tag in 10 years or not, the real question is what price will the dollar have.
Yep, that is a great question. They should include that in their predictions...
its very encouraging and hopeful i tell you that much. I think we are all pretty excited for the future here on steemit, watching the world change. Blessing to us all
Cliff Highs webot predicts $15,000.00 btc within a couple years. This prediction for ten year btc falls in line with that. Followed, upvoted. Thank you.
While Clif High and the web bots can follow predictions made upon what people talk about on the Internet, I still believe crypto currencies are a reaction to overly oppressive governments around the world. Much like the printing press, crypto currencies fill a need to escape asset fortitude and law enforcement abuse.
But law enforcement is already taking notice of crypto currencies, despite their outdated tactics of wiping hard drives/computers/smartphones and selling them for revenue enhancement. The lesson here is backup, backup, backup!
communication is key...comment reminds me of recent recording's i watched about steem.
and this one with ned scott about 'community tokens and the future of steem'
Yes it does. Thank you!
The only question that remains is:
~ what will 100.000 USD buy us in 10 years...?
Haha yes! I wish they would make a prediction on that as well... what good is $100k bitcoin if $100k buys us what $2k buys us today?! However, even in that scenario at least it preserves your wealth.
Even if you take into account a 6-7% inflation every year. $100,000 USD Bitcoin will still be worth quite a lot.
Thanks for posting this I will start following him! Hope it comes true :)
Not sure what that means for Steem exactly, but Steem has a lot of things going for it, so hopefully it is one of those handful of cryptos that "makes it" as he says. As far as Bitcoin actually getting to $100k... that would be mind boggling! :)
Do you think we can see steem at $5-10 by the end of the year. Would that put the steem dollar at about 15$? If bitcoin hit 100k a coin that would be fantastic:))
The Steem Dollar is supposed to be pegged to $1 dollar. I would look at the fact that it isn't as more of a gift than as an expected continuation. At some point I image it will be re-pegged to the $1 dollar mark.
Regarding Steem... I wish I knew :). So far it seems to be moving with the rest of the altcoin market. If massive buying comes in again like we saw a few months ago. It likely drives steem up as well.
There are also some steemit specific events that could help the price in the near future. From new apps being developed and built on the blockchain to better functioning of steemit.com, there is the possibility that they drive price growth as well.
I certainly think it is possible that Steem hits $5 by the end of the year at some point, but it will likely depend on how much demand there is in the altcoin market as a whole and how much improvement gets done on the steem blockchain and steemit.com from now until then.
Thanks for that detailed reply. I think it's possible for steem to hit $5 by the end of the year too. Steemit reminds of a machine that need to constantly be fed by either getting new members, more posts, more buying steem! Its a monster of a machine! lol
Thank you for this information. For so many reasons, I'm supporting a blockchain revolution. My support started with an uninformed gut feeling and continues to grow with a combo of gut-n-reason. That said, to avoid constraining my thinking in a confirmation bias mindset, I also like to find contrarian opinions regarding coin.
Predictably, some gold bugs are finding the loss of capital that would ordinarily flow to gold in uncertain times as a threat not only to their gold holder base, but to their gold-guru reputations as well. It is in their motivation to portray gold as favourable to crypto that I mine for nuggets of crypto-thinking weaknesses. Governments and banks confront similar fears as people leave fiat currencies, bonds, and stocks. Fear of loss of control and treasure is a great motivator to pick apart a new, competing asset class for finite resources. However, If those thoughts have merit, it's essential to seek or develop crypto tokens/strategies/defences that counter the chinks in our investment vehicles of choice.
As far as crypto bubbles, I am more concerned about entering a bubble of crypto-confirming-euphoria where our feeds provide only positive reinforcemen without critical thought. As the old adage cautions, "Good news can wait. Bad news cannot."
All nuggets are welcome here: coin, metals, information, useful stuff. Cheers!
That is a great way to look at it, and probably some critical thinking would do a lot of good right now. Great reminder.
Nah... We should all have sold out when Bitcoin hit $12 folks! It's all just a bubble, nothing here to see.
I knew it! ;)
Yes everyone knows Bitcoin died back then. The papers printed it. ;)
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Stable Coin(s) and a new one we probably have not heard of yet will be big winners along with a slew of asset tokens. He is right trillions of dollars worth.
Yep, probably... although, no steem on your list?
Just to be sure I´ll keep mine and buy some more... because this community... you never know.
Great info. All things are possible not all things are probable, I'm hoping steem beats bitcoin in the long run, you get my upvote
Yep, great point. I wonder what he puts the odds of that happening at? Casares said he gives Bitcoin a 50% chance of hitting 1 million within 10 years... that seems a bit high. :)
Thank you for this great post! I love me some great news.
So do I!
In this scenario, it would be very interesting to see which other currencies survive along with Bitcoin. Any theories?
I wish I knew. If I did I would be buying those all up. As of right now I would guess Bitcoin (first mover), Ethereum (wallstreet firms backing it), possibly ripple or steem (for different reasons). Other than those your guess is as good as mine...
With 100% annual growth Bitcoin would reach $100,000 within 7 years.
Good point. I have heard that argument as well. Do you remember what the annual average growth rate is over the last 10 years (or basically since it's inception)?
I believe it originally traded below one dollar and was trading at about $250.00 in late 2015, so growth is about one thousand percent since late 2015, or a ten bagger as people like to say.
Of course there is a corresponding hyperinflation of the U$D that is catastrophic for those who are not holding an appreciating currency. Gold and Silver Bugs understand completely that paper can go to zero against silver. Paper cannot buy silver indefinately. There are many banks now, "Free Banking" has returned and we are all bankers now. And of course many, many schemes will fail. There is risk everywhere. ¡Viva la Revolución!
For all the minnows sake, I hope this is a good prediction!
I think whales, orcas, and dolphins would be pretty happy with it as well ;)
#fishfolkunite
I am the veriest tyro in terms of crypto so I may be totally off base here but my understanding is that Bitcoin is maxed out at about 3 transactions/second. How do you get around that?
That is a very good question... the technology is a dinosaur, but they have some very talented developers and a lot of money, we will see how they go about solving their transaction problems. There a number of altcoins with better technology, yet they languish behind, why is that?
Like you said, bitcoin is first mover advantage. BTC may now end up being "THE" crypto but it'll likely always be a player because of it. Ethereum seems to be is first early challenger for the crown, I'm sure there will be others.
Remember - Myspace originally dominated the social media space until facebook ate it's lunch with a better UI and experience, as a loose example.
Yep, and if Bitcoin doesn't adapt and improve it's technology, I imagine someone else will eat it's lunch too. Myspace to Facebook are perfect examples.
Couldn't agree more!
I think the other altcoins are simply suffering from a lack of exposure.
I read an article about bitcoin 3 years ago and continued to monitor prices but didn't do anything until purchasing a little bitcoin and ethereum 2 weeks ago.
Then again, it took me years before I trusted the credit card swiper at the gas pumps.
Haha you and me both!
Aside from technical scrutinization on bitcoin, the facts remain that of the 7 billion world population, there are only about 6 million bitcoin users so far. On top, Bitcoin market cap is currently around $38 billion vs. trillions and trillions still circulating out there in form of fiat currencies, to soon find their ways into cryptocurrencies. The influx of flight to safety right ahead. (y) :)
Yep, those were some of his points as well... He is predicting the cryptocurrency market eventually accounts for 10% of all the daily currency trading volume.
Great post! And can I get a whole bitcoin before that happens and will it happen because of runaway inflation and not mean any improvement in living at all? I hope not my friend @jrcornel
Yea hopefully it gets there on it's own merits and not because the dollar has become worthless... good point!
thnx for good information
If steem was the same price as bitcoin is right now that would be unreal.
Yes it would. Although they have a completely different number of coins, so pretty difficult to compare them price wise. Off the top of my head, for steem to have a similar market cap I believe it would be trading around $150 or so... but I'd have to check the numbers to be sure.
I love gold... er, scratch that... I love bitcoin...
Great info! I would love to see Steem over $100
I will take $10, but $100 would be great too ;)
Wow, wouldn't that be incredible. I am gonna keep some aside just in case!
Yea I am thinking I need to lock 2 coins away and just forget about them. If some of these predictions come true great, if not I am out a couple grand. With so many people thinking big things like this, it's probably worth the risk to take a shot.
I agree, the hard bit will be forgetting through the inevitable dips!
Yes it will...
Great review! We need motivation to keep our focus on the potential. Following you now @jrcornel :)
Yes we do, and Thank you!
That is awesome news Steem will follow and rise to the moon !!!
Now we watch and wait!
Not sure about $100k BTC in 10 years but definitely agree crypto is here to say. It's already forcing me to revise my medium term strategy.
why you are not sure, it keeps growing everyday
Haha mine as well! This recent surge and the actions out of Japan and now Russia have really given me confidence that this isn't just a flash in the pan passing fad. It's the next thing... now, it's just a matter of picking the right ones. Diversify :)
Hello my friend
Actually prices are high bitcoin
My only hope is to see Steem prices like bitcoin
It is truly something to dream about and that Steem would follow.
I am now a fan of Van-Peterson and you @jrcornel
Followed and Upvoted.
Please feel free to follow back. Cheers, and thanks for this post!
Thanks!
here is the prove that bitcoin will never go down : https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@clixmoney/stop-the-panic-bitcoin-will-never-go-down
Yeah and MySpace will always be the king of social media, look at its growth numbers back in the day. What can stop it!? Bitcoin is a technical disaster right now, and I predict it will be eclipsed by another Crypto completely. Bitcoin is completely dependent on the network effect for growth, but its development team are too inept or self-serving to use onchain scaling like increased blocksize to improve scalability, so they're limiting the network effect, limiting growth. Newegg.ca just announced they'll stop accepting Bitcoin, Humble Bundle stopped accepting bitcoin, tons of retailers that used to accept it are now ditching it. Transaction times, costs, and backlog are absolutely horrendous and the Core development team is incredibly dysfunctional. They've been promising solutions for 4 years now and have produced absolutely nothing. Segwit is dead on arrival. I wonder how much analysts like this guy know about the technology. Not much, I imagine.
I just saw your reply, after replying to the original post (my reply is somewhere below), but I think your points enhance the appeal of alternatives. Some of the reasons I expect others could gain ground are [apologies for excerpting from my original reply]:
"... And although it might be hard to predict which ones will be "tier 1" currencies, we can extrapolate a bit here and imagine that together with BTC we will see more of:
This last point probably applies most to those like DASH that are directed towards e-commerce.
But, @misfortunecookie, we should presume that BTC's devs will work to always improve it. That is a given, IMHO. Especially if they see more vendors signing on with other cryptos -- that will be a huge incentive for solving the issues you identified.
Great reply to a great post (kudos, @jrcornel)!
One or two cryptos will end up on the top of the heap in the end but, like @captaincanary says below, it may not have even been created yet. Core is incentivized to improve Bitcoin, you would think, but they seem paralyzed by its success. It's so big, like a house of cards they're terrified to breathe near.
They're also incentivized by their own avarice, because they dodge scaling solutions that would stand independent of them, and instead push things like Lightning Network - off-chain solutions that increase centralization and put more power into their hands. They crave not only the success of BTC, but cementing their own legacy and importance in the management of the ecosystem. So many very prominent members of the team have quit in frustration.
There is a lot of drama and a lot of suspicion. Other cryptos are sneaking up and will soon displace it. The 1mb blocksize that they knew was too small half a decade ago is still in place.
Litecoin, Monero, and others have dynamically scaling block sizes to prevent the technical mess that bitcoin is in right now from happening to them. Since money can so easily and quickly be moved around with crytpo (well, except bitcoin haha, but still comparatively fast to so many assets) it can slip and slide effortlessly from it and into a different currency overnight. That's what makes this market as a "store of value" so stressful.
BTC's only advantage right now is the age of the blockchain. That is what gives investors some confidence, it has stood the test of time so far. But is it actually a useful currency compared to other solutions right now? Not really, other than a store of value. That will limit its growth and eventually render it obsolete, I believe.
I hadn't heard that about retailers stopping accepting bitcoins? I have heard mostly the opposite actually... That would be interesting though, do you have some links?
If you follow the BTC subreddit you will see the truth about Bitcoin, I don't have any specific links on hand, but ask yourself why a retailer or a consumer would want to use this payment system:
Takes hours to days for a transaction to confirm
Backlog of transactions sits at around 250,000
Transactions are irreversible
Cost to conduct a transaction is hovering around ~$6.00 (are you going to buy a cup of coffee with BTC when it takes hours to pay and the payment costs more than the coffee itself?)
Currency is still extremely volatile
Why would anyone want to pay with or accept this currency? I would like to see which businesses are starting to take it now. It is a huge headache to use. Excepting cases where the suffering is worth it, because it's the only choice on the Darknet (but most Darknet markets are now accepting alt coins too). Bitcoin must adapt to survive and it has been sitting still for many years while other coins have evolved better privacy measures and/or faster networks.
I can't really argue with anything you put here... great points. They just need to be introduced to steem, 3 second free transactions?! Just what the doctor ordered...
We can only hope. Because of the social media element inherent to steemit, I expect the network effect to be massive if it crosses a certain threshold of users. It's infuriating trying to describe the benefits of steemit to people on Reddit and being called a corporate shill. Many are suspicious of the phone number requirement, but simultaneously moan about astroturfing and vote manipulation on reddit. Hypocrites.
Redditors love their censored echo-chambers and seem to loathe the idea of a decentralized censor-proof social media blockchain where you actually get paid for participating. What's not to like!?
You are spot on with your comments misfortunecookie. The reality is that the cryptocurrency that eventually ends up being widely adopted probably hasn't even been created yet
LOL
A big thanks for share this big information. upvote and follow you @jrcornel
Nice
Excellent article - thanks!
wonderfull..... bitcoin hitting 100,000... thanks for sharing.... the cryptos are taking over
It's easy to throw these kind of crazy figures around but at least he did have some explanation of how it could get that high. I highly doubt though that Bitcoin will still be one of the top cryptos within the next few years UNLESS it undergoes some very significant upgrades
Last one month I posted cryptocurrency market cap was around $35 Billions and nowadays it is about $87 Billions. Amazing :-D !!!
I don't care where it is, how it gets there, or whatever. I am buying and holding. I do, from time to time, dip in and buy necessities of life when my day job paycheck is short that week though. This is easy thanks to having a Shift debit card tied to my Coinbase account (I know, not the most popular wallet but it is certainly the easiest to get money into and out of, at least for me).
I do my best to educate friends and family about crypto and assist them in getting invested. I have an appointment tomorrow night with a friend that is wanting in on Bitcoin. Going to be fun as with each person I help, I learn new things and can better help the next person and update those I have already helped. The cool thing is when past people I helped come back to me with ideas and such I never thought of and they educate me. That is a great feeling.
@jrcornel Certainly an optimistic and encouraging projection!
But what do you think about the detail -- "By his calculations, there should be approximately 17 million bitcoins in circulation 10 years from now at the current inflation rate"?
Can we count on the inflation rate maintaining? I have read more often that it will continue to decrease. This chart (https://cointelegraph.com/news/worlds-best-performing-currency-bitcoin-inflation-rate-drops-to-4)is one such projection of that:
.
If that rate of decline is even somewhat accurate, a recalculation of the number in circulation 10 years hence is definitely in order.
Another consideration would be the growing usage of other cryptos. Bitcoin's status as "reserve" crypto doesn't need to change for it to "lose ground" against the likes of ETH, ETC, LTC, DASH and a few of others that are showing increased popularity as transactional (and not merely speculating / tradable) currencies.
If the overall popularity of cryptos does indeed spread (extensive, i.e. more users worldwide) and deepen (intensive, i.e. each user uses more) in the coming decade, one would expect that increase to be distributed among top-tier currencies. And although it might be hard to predict which ones will be "tier 1" currencies, we can extrapolate a bit here and imagine that together with BTC we will see more of:
The popularity of others may not slow the increase in outstanding BTC, but it could temper its price action.
Just some thoughts.
I'm new on Steemit. Follow me @mwanacomete and we can share ideas :)
My biggest question is, will bitcoin retract before another huge expanding or it will just go up and up. What do you think?
nice....your post deserve upvote and resteem....
Quite a price prediction, lets hope it happens. Here is another bitcoin play to consider, up 43% since I penned the article in the link this morning. If these predictions are even remotely true, this Bitcoin mining related stock should go significantly higher . Would sincerely love to hear your input. I tried to warn people of the risks of this stock. That said, while pointing out the potential as well because these cryptos keep exploding higher, as there really are very few 'crypto stocks' out there, this may prove a unique opportunity.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@motowngold/bitcoin-services-btsc-a-rare-bitcoin-stock-that-may-be-a-great-opportunity
Show me the Money!!! I mean show me the Bitcoin . You know what is bet? Lets Steem!!!!!! Hahahaha
I'm enjoying all of the comments to your post. This has been a very thought provoking thread. I think if one has the ability to put away a few Bitcoin now, at least wait for a modest pullback before jumping in. Maybe use a 10 week simple moving average pullback. Following you now @jrcornel