If interest rates soar and/or stocks plummet, the game is over:
A friend of mine is a loan manager at a very large bank. They do a massive amount of the real estate loans in the Chicagoland area. He said that if rates even rise to 6.5% for a home loan that about 90% of their current home loans wouldn't have a chance of qualifying. With the minor increases we have seen people are already starting to turn to adjustable loans to qualify.
If people aren't buying homes then their value plummet, no more using your house an an ATM (still happening at a crazy high rate), and foreclosures will once again become a massive issue.
Forget the entire new home and remodeling industry. They get crushed if this happens as people can't get loans to buy or remodel.
Without construction all sort of other industries are effected that service the construction industry.
This is just one small segment of the economy that once it starts to decline has a major ripple effect across the economy as a whole.
Interest rates will rise and people need to be ready for what comes next.
If Interest rates rise by 1/4 point many people in Canada will not be able to make their monthly Mortgage payments ... let alone afford to buy food.
1/4% isn't felt and as most mortgages are fixed interest rates. On a $10,000 credit card balance 1/4% is only $25 a year. This just isn't enough to matter as people can cut out something. Where even that small amount matters is that people will cut things out, say 1 less movie a year or eating at home an extra time. Multiple this over the entire economy and it means jobs are lost.
People in Canada have $800,000 mortgages ... that's $2,000 a year . . Almost $200 / month
A majority of mortgages are fixed rate so most will not feel any increase if rates increase.
Source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/transunion-mortgages-debt-1.4256026
While there are pockets of Canada that have insane real estate prices the average person doesn't have a 800k mortgage. Anyone with an ARM that can't afford an extra 1/4% mortgage increase never should of bought a home on an ARM while rates were at historic lows. Seriously anyone that takes an ARM right now just isn't very intelligent. Buy a home you can afford or just don't purchase a home.
At that if someone has an ARM right now and isn't refinancing into a fixed rate mortgage is just asking for drastically higher payments in the future.
Interest rates will rise, period. There is zero chance of them not rising IMO.
Are you familiar with the current household debt situation in Canada ? It is bad.....
average Canadian Debt is $22,837 per person, not including mortgages
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/debt/canadian-household-debt-hits-1-8t-as-report-warns-of-domestic-risk
Yes it was in the same article that I had linked to. Of that debt a huge majority is Auto Loans which are also fixed. This isn't to say that a rate increase isn't going to effect the economy, because it does. It's just not what you are picturing. 1/4% is a rounding error in most people's lives. Just wait for 6.5% first mortgages again (which is still historically low) and we will see real pain in the real estate bubbles of the US and CA.
The numbers in the US are just as bad and you can see the numbers here:
https://www.creditkarma.com/studies/i/average-debt-american-household-on-rise/
Either way both countries have a massive overspending issue. Our governments and the people both spend far more then they should. People think they deserve everything NOW and take issue with the concept of waiting until they can actually afford it.
Credit Cards are not your friend and never should be used expect for an emergency. If you can't afford to purchase something today then don't buy it, it's truly that simple. Use Cash for everything and record every single penny you spend each day. Then review that spending on a weekly and monthly basis.
This isn't something that I talk about in an abstract form. We were part of the rat race trying to keep up an image. We had new cars, nice new clothes, ate out all the time, took vacations multiple times a year, and so forth. Then one day I realized that we had a TON of debt...$22k is a joke compared to what we had racked up. It took some time and discipline, but we paid it all off and now live debt free except our 1st mortgage (we had 2 before).
I didn't take the easy way out and file bankruptcy, we earned each dollar needed to pay off our debt. So I know how people get into massive debt and understand the sacrifices needed to get out of it. And to this day we live like we are poor instead of acting like we are rich. Read the Millionaire Next Door if you haven't. We aren't done with our journey towards financial freedom, but are much closer then most do to not wasting money.
Yeah... we haven’t gone on any big vacations in years unless it’s a road trip to visit family. Luckily I have no debt and take the bus/train everywhere I go. The party will eventually come to an end and all that debt will crush many.