Today is World Obesity Day. I'm obese, and I'm going to do something about it.
For months, I've been thinking about a way to motivate myself to live healthier using Hive, beyond tracking my daily exercise with @actifit. Working from home has not been good for my weight: I was overweight before my first voluntary lockdown a year ago, and I'm obese now (>30 BMI). I'm not the kind of person who gets energized from running ten miles before breakfast, so I need to create a social and financial incentive to help me prioritize something other than work.
At first I was inspired by @nathanmars, and I told @steevc I considered making a series of pushup videos, doing one more pushup every time - and for an extra challenge, counting in a different language each time. Unfortunately, this plan had two fatal flaws: I don't like doing pushups, and I don't like posting videos of myself.
New plan: I'm giving away money to three people who make the best predictions for my weight on March the 28th, and the higher my weight, the higher the prizes for the winners will be. March 28 is a Sunday, a week after Hive Day and a week before Easter.
Climbing the Galibier in August 2016, when I was 10kg lighter than today
Exponential rewards
Since I need a substantial incentive to get moving, the rewards for the best predictions will be exponential: raised to the third power for the first prize, squared for the second prize and simply the amount above a threshold for the third prize. While my goal weight for this month is 90kg (198 lbs), I'll subtract 85 so that there will be a payout in any case. In other words, there will be three prizes as follows:
- First prize: (Weight – 85) * (Weight – 85) * (Weight – 85) HIVE
- Second prize: (Weight – 85) * (Weight – 85) HIVE
- Third prize: (Weight – 85) HIVE
For example, at today's morning weight of 94.0kg (207 lbs), the first prize would be 9.0 * 9.0 * 9.0 = 729 HIVE, the second prize would be 9.0 * 9.0 = 81 HIVE, and the third 9 HIVE. Here's a graph showing how high the first prize could go, from Wolfram Alpha – into the thousands if I gain more weight:
Rules
Maybe I liked writing these rules too much. It's a red flag when people let a little power go to their head.
- Please post your prediction in a comment under this post. I'll accept one prediction per person (not per account).
- The end date for making a prediction is extended to Tuesday the 23th of March.
- Try to make a unique prediction in metric units, not rocks or plates or whatever, with a precision of 0.1 kg (or 1 Newton if you insist on measuring weight rather than mass). But I'm not going to police this. When multiple predictions are equally true, I'll roll the dice.
- Predictions are not valid until I record them in this post. I can refuse to record your prediction without giving any reason. Please have some patience; I won't be online to monitor the comments all the time.
- Anyone who gives dieting advice will be disqualified. I'm not asking for advice. I've lost weight before, I know what to do. I won't go on a special diet.
- When there's an equal difference with a higher and a lower prediction, the lower prediction will win. (Higher predictions already have the advantage of a higher expected payout.)
- The result will be my naked weight before breakfast on the 28th of March, 2021. Payments will be made the same day unless there are unforeseen circumstances.
- There are no exceptions for technical problems, illness, injury or death, unless this interferes with a weight measurement on the 28th of March. But your reward payment might be postponed.
- The exact amounts of prizes will be based on my actual weight rather than the closest prediction.
- This is not a bet, and commenters do not have a contract with me.
- Participants are not required to follow me or to upvote or reblog this post.
- Before you ask for video evidence, consider that my naked morning weight is the standardized measure. I went to a lot of effort to set this up, and I want to punish myself when I fail to reach my goal. I've given away thousands of coins before.
Took a 'before' picture today, but I can't even fit my belly in a selfie
Info
To help you make an informed prediction, I can show you that my weight has fluctuated between 92kg and 95kg since October last year.
Can I get a technical analysis for this chart?
Ever since I had a fever in March 2020, I've been short of breath while climbing stairs and such. I should go to the doctor to ask where this comes from and how much exercise I can safely do. While I used to have more than enough lung capacity, this seems to be an oxygen issue. Endurance for a longer effort is not a problem.
I will probably keep working from home throughout March. Anything that actually makes my weight go down, like fasting the last few days, won't count as cheating.
Proof of weight from Tuesday. Cartman says: "I'm not fat, I'm big-boned!"
Predictions
| Weight in kg | Predicted by |
|---|---|
| 91.5 | @cryptocurator |
| 89.9 | @kenny-crane |
| 89.8 | @bashadow |
| 89.2 | @steevc |
| 88.0 | @sidekickmatt |
| 86.5 | @meesterboom |
| 86.0 | @gtown |
Me in 2008, around 20kg lighter. Can you guess what my favorite color was?
End goal
Eventually, I hope to get back to a flat belly like in the blue picture, but with stronger arms. As I said, I've lost weight before. It went from 94kg to 88kg in 2004, and from 88kg to 72 kg in 2007. This was a matter of motivation rather than technique. Guess what the other universal motivating factor besides food and money is... Unfortunately, I have no decent pictures from the period 2007-2009. I do have indecent pictures, but you don't want to see those.
If you're inspired, feel free to create your own challenge based on my exponential rewards or my original idea of incremental pushups, but please give it an original twist and a different name.
While it's not required to participate, please do follow, upvote and reblog if you like this post.
I will guess 89.9 kilograms and I wish you all the best in your quest to meet your weight loss goals!
I see you mentioned Wolfram Alpha in your post. Did you happen to read A New Kind of Science? Now he's doing some interesting research into a "theory of everything" in Physics. He's always doing something exciting!
Oh, I forgot Wolfram Alpha was one person's work. I don't know about the science, but I like his approach to the philosophy of free will:
I reckon you've gone hard the last couple of weeks and I'm going with 86kg! Good luck!
Great, now I feel shamed/inspired to stop eating for a week :)
I've been going hard at office work, unfortunately.
I've just started to loose some weight myself. I was just a smidge under the 100kg mark for a while at the peak of my covid grossness. I lost a bit before I started tracking things but since then I've lost 3.6kg. Now sitting at 93kg aiming for 80kg. Setting a goal like you have with an end date is a great motivator. So far my guess is the lowest so I'm going to encourage you to push that little bit more. I'm doing it for you... not me... honestly! 😁
Good luck with this. I predict 89.2kg.
I'm fortunate to not struggle too much with my weight, but then my running is bound to help. I need something to get me out of the house.
Have a low calorie !BEER
Thanks for the confidence, Steve! I'll stick with walking, lifting and cycling, but running definitely helps.
88.0! You can do eet!
All the very best with the challenge- I’m going to guess at 91.5kg
Thanks, you're on the list!
Okay I'll guess 89.8
I hope you make your goal.
86.5 kilos, You got this baby! :OD
View or trade
BEER.Hey @edb, here is a little bit of
BEERfrom @steevc for you. Enjoy it!Learn how to earn FREE BEER each day by staking your
BEER.Sorry, I'm not having any beer this month :)
I guess if someone wants to bet against me, they could predict a high number and send me real beer or cake.
By the way, after I chose this format, I noticed I wasn't allowed to post this on /r/loseit, since there are scammy websites that let people make a bet on their weight loss. It's cruel to abuse people's optimism that way, so this is another thing we can do in a fairer way using crypto.
87.7 - Wish you all the best.
I think 89.3 kg! And for bonus points, I think your favorite color is blue.
Cheers!