Haejinality vs. Reality (XVG Review)
In continuing the series I started here:
Based on the idea by @just2random whom did some excellent coverage on the previous BTC calls of @haejin here:
I am now reviewing the XVG calls made by @haejin for accuracy
In all fairness I will start at the oldest first and work from there.
On September 2nd 2017 XVG was .0055 cents, @Haejin Called XVG to be $5.50 cents by October of 2018.
Reveal spoiler
Reveal spoiler
As we have yet to reach that date, I cannot say whether his ultimate target will or will not be correct. I can only judge the shorter range targets he set in his analysis.
Haejenality: XVG would be 60 cents at the end of December
Reality: XVG peaked at .24 cents before taking a nose dive below .04 cents and currently sits around .06 cents.
Other factors: BTC was trading around $4400 at the time and this call was made during the beginning of the China ICO Ban BTC crash; over the next two weeks BTC dropped to $2980 USD. Before recovering and going on an almost 700% run to reach nearly $20,000 in a massive Bull market.
Opinion:Objectively looking at it I believe the increase in XVG price was the inevitable result of the Bull Market. So yes, the call made by @haejin on XVG during the exceptional BTC bull market would have been profitable as a result of the greater bull market
And then the BEAR comes to town.
On January 8th XVG was .18 Cents and @haijin called XVG to hit .65 by January 29th and go onto hit 1.70 according to his chart diagram and wave overlay.
- https://steemit.com/dtube/@haejin/xolanri5
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=123&v=73cIlQL4fmM
Haejenality: XVG to hit .65 before January 29th according to his chart diagram and wave overlay.
Reality: Overlay shows the next highest XVG close was .1924 cents the following day before diving to an all time low of 3.2 cents on February 2nd 2018; currently holding around .06 cents.
Other factors: The day prior to this call BTC closed at $16,215 having just shed 10% the day prior, the day of this call BTC would shed another 16% to a low of $13,700, closing the day with a 9% loss at $14,900. This extremely bullish call on XVG was made in a very obvious downtrend in BTC prices.
Opinion: Can’t hit the curve, nonsensical call for higher highs on an ALT coin going against the greater trend of the crypto market. Had you of purchased on his January 7th recommendation at .18 cents, you would be sitting on a 76% loss. BTC lost roughly 47% during the same time frame. Ergo HODLING BTC in a confirmed BEAR Market would of been a better idea, than purchasing the buy call made by @haejin.
We shall See
Already your Headtitle was good! (and so was the analysis)
thank you...
This is a great idea @pawsdog.
I'm thinking about doing a review of my past predictions and seeing how I've done. Probably 50/50 or worse, but I'm still learning TA.
that is the best way to test your method is to recheck mistakes and fine tune your approach..
Yeah that's very true! Will also help to see if I'm improving or just getting lucky too. :-D
:)
Thanks for all you are doing @pawsdog.
Thanks, the upvotes are far and few between but I think it is worth it from the standpoint of doing what is right..
Wrong information. On September 2nd, Verge was 0.005x not 0.05. So your math is super wrong. If you hodled btc instead of verge, you would have made waaaaaaaaay less. How do I know? I made more than 40x on verge in literally 3 weeks. So next time make sure you do your research right and post only after that!
My bad saw it wrong, on the screen, deleted that part, good catch, regardless, it was the effect of a tremendous bull market, not the result of a guru making some miraculous call. There were numerous coins that made some ridiculous gains during this period.. actually nearly all of them.. That said had you of followed his other call, you would of given back .75 cents on every dollar you invested. Ergo point is still valid.. He can choose a winner as good as my magic eight ball during the bull market of the century, but pretty much sucks about as bad as one can in a corrective market.
Was he not calling for BTC to be 24k like 2 weeks ago? He is a scam, a marketeer, a dude that managed to start his bullshit selling business at exactly the right time and market sentiment across the board made all his calls come true and he is some sort of God.. yet when the market turns and you actually need skill... well.. his predictions go to shit..
I notice you failed to comment on the 75% loss part of his most recent call? Congrats on your earnings.. I killed it on Golem, Bitcoin Dark, and many many others.. thanks to the bull market.. It was great.. coins that did not even have a workable business model went right through the roof.. one after the other, after the other..
I just commented on that part of the post. One other thing that I saw wrong there was the time predictions. In TA, time is pretty much impossible to predict and he himself has said that multiple times. So just because .60 cent mark shows on December doesn't mean it should hit the target right at that time. And no..There wasn't a lot of coins that went up like 75x in like 2 weeks...There is nothing miraculous about that either. It's just chart reading. Other than that, I don't really have anything against the rest of your post. You've got some good points and before I say anything else, I want to say that I agree with most others here and don't think his posts deserve 400 a pop.
However...His calls are purely based on technical analysis and it doesn't mean that it's going to be right every single time. He calls what he thinks will happen based on TA and people do as they wish. He thought based on his indicators and past experience that it would go to 20k and it hasn't. That doesn't make him a scam artist at all. If someone puts all their money in those calls without doing any research whatsoever, then it's their stupidity. Also, 75% loss part is completely normal in a bear market since alt coins tend to lose more value compared to bitcoin.
His call for 20k was wrong and he updated accordingly. As a TA believer, I personally find his TA valuable as it gives me another perspective and a chance to buy dips on different coins that I don't really follow closely. On the side note, I also believe Verge and Tron will bring huge profits even though they are both shit coins. So I don't really care if it's down 75% atm when TA shows 680% profit potential during the next bull run. There were instances where I was down 60-70% and ended up making 10x-20x returns. As long as people know what the hell they are doing and don't invest more than they can afford to lose then I don't really see a problem here. Now my question to you.. Will you change this post and call him a genius if they hit those targets during the next bull run?
I understand that people are mad since he is getting such a big portion from the rewards pool and I would be too if i was using Steemit for that purpose. However, all this hate doesn't really make sense to me. If you had any knowledge on Elliot Wave principle, I don't think you'd be calling it a scam. Again, the key is to do your own research and not invest like an idiot. As long as people do that, I think there is a lot of value in what he shares. Instead of hating like this, you should focus more on solving the reward pool problem because that's what's causing this whole issue. All this hate creates nothing but drama and solves nothing.
I agree with you points, and apologize for taking an aggressive tone in my first response.. That said, I have been at this game for a "long while".. and his understanding of Elliot wave is grossly in error the majority of the time. Hell, I will even put my money where my mouth is as I strongly believe in TA myself, as a practitioner..
If you ever have time, go through my reports and compare my calls to his. I will put 10 SBD on the line that I out perform him by several orders of magnitude on BTC, LTC, ETC etc.
I think in one of my more recent posts, I stated that I disagreed with his placement of axis in the descending wedge and redrew them accordingly. Where he felt we were in the channel I stated we were not and were being rejected after falling through the bottom..
Part of it is here: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-31-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook-actual-info
Here is another: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/2-2-2018-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
If we want to compare TA accuracy I will go head to head with him any day..
As someone whom has done this for a decade on the professional level and holds licenses related to the trade. I found his inability to accurately depict the simple most likely upper and lower boundary of a descending wedge to be somewhat egregious. That is in many respects very basic stuff based on experience and the rule set.
How have our buys on his calls since January gone? still drinking the Kool-Aid?
Just gave you a follow. Thank you for doing this objective analysis.
No worries, I try to keep it fair..If there is evidence to the contrary do let me know and I will make corrections..
calling for 5-600% gains seem to be a good method to add followers and make 10,000$ in rewards. Maybe we should try it ! :) Accuracy is not that important, give me THE GAINS :D
Good series, fighting the good fight once again. Re-Steemed.
I like that I will start making huge calls tomorrow.. As you said accuracy means nothing, so I'll just start throwing numbers out there..
It means nothing when you dont put your money where your mouth is, like this guy.
Or, and think about this. He has a huge following, pumps up a small cap he has already bought into and sells into the lemmings that follow. The ensuing bump by follower purchases on his recommendation means he was "right" it went up, all the while he is selling into them. I saw this with Brian Kelly, (he was above board) but he did live shows and as soon as he would recommend xyz coin on the live stream, the price would bump up 4 or more percent based upon the 5600 followers running over to Bittrex and buying his pump..
Hey you saw I bought BTC yesterday on our wager.. I attached the image for you..
Yes, I have thought of this multiple times. This explains perfectly his relationship with a whale like ranchorelaxo. But I have seen a lot of times nothing happens to the price, because he is making 10 calls a day in bullish market.
I saw it. Now you have a bit more than the 1 SBD you won from me, good job ! You are a straight forward guy, I like that :)
This is also true.. I am curious the connection between those two; maybe one and the same person.. Funny but they both can read Korean language, so I know Rancho and Haejin both Korean, also strange that rancho started upvoting Haejin right after haejin made a big call on STeem... I find it to be very interesting and would not be surprised to find out they are the same person or know each other outside the platform and a colluding to rape it..
BTC should fall back to 8800 tonight I would think.. LTC maybe 144.. Looking at how the charts are moving now.. I may be wrong.. what are your thoughts?
To be honest, no idea ! When I don't feel certain, I try not to express my opinion. I will watch for something interesting, LTC is super strong. What a reversal from 100 to 165 today. Damn, 65% - lol.
I feel bad for people who make financial moves based off of his technical bullshit
Not all is bullshit, much in the same fashion not all martial arts are bullshit. I'm more interested in those that think their "chi" or "TA" is almost magical when in fact it is not. Many patterns work quite well, as does TA, hell read my market analysis for the last week.. or even the ones for the last 3 days, go back a year if you like.. So depending upon method, time frame etc. you can make some excellent calls and good money with "technical BS".. Others take it to the outlandish realms of bullshitville and start making ridiculous calls against the greater trend which is just fucking dumb on its most basic level...
I agree. Technical analysis can be a great tool, IF supplemented with fundamentals and news. Technical analysis is basically the psychology of price action. However, Haijin seems to believe his chart readings are sufficient without looking into any recent news or fundamentals at all. This is a foolish way to trade.
I mostly agree with you. About the only place we differ is that I am more of the school of thought that the price makes the news, the news does not set the price; its strange concept I'm sure for those that may not do this 12 hours a day. Regardless I concur he seems to be of the belief that he can draw lines on a chart and will them into existence.. It does not work that way, the greater market will always over rule foolish predictions.
Ha! It's the chicken or the egg scenario I guess.
True, very true, and excellent way of looking at it... :)
Where are you living?
Complete financemarket of the big players is only working with this " technical bullshit".
Look to an investmenbankers office. Do you think they do it with a pencil and a piece of paper?
Actually MIT did a study on TA and found it to be quite accurate when stacked beside FA..
http://web.mit.edu/people/wangj/pap/LoMamayskyWang00.pdf
You may want to read up on it, as the big kids to play with TA on their big kid computers..
My husband called the winner of every single game in the Cubs 2016 World Series, using predictive astrology. I really need to convince him to start using it to predict crypto trends. I don't see how it could be any worse than most predictions on here now.
This is really great work, by the way! Thanks for the in-depth analysis!
No problem, I see your sudden fame and figured I could ride your coat tails...lol.. I'm going to try and get a few of more of these up to illustrate the point conclusively and without bias that he is essentially full of shit..
Oh yes, I'm so famous, bahaha. I will include your info in my next video, along with Bernie Sanders downvoting all of Haejin's commentors.
Joking aside. He is accurately wrong most of the time :p
As always great posts with great analyzes.
Thanks, and I agree... he is accurately way off the mark.. lol
@nmf-ii
I appreciate the upvote, however, I would "ASK" (notice the caps) that you add substantive content to your comment as the way I see it now... It's spam, as it provides no insight, looks like a clown threw up on my comments section, and has your spam blog link at the bottom as they only content in the comment. I'll check back in an hour or so, and react accordingly.. thank you..