Looking at data to answer the question: Does the @valueplan spending impact the price of HIVE, and by how much?
While this video was uploading, I realized that the last time I made a video was during the hostile takeover. So I guess it takes an existential threat for me to make a video.
So yes, I do think it's important and I hope you will engage with the topic so we can collectively figure out what we want to do. This is not simply about money (money comes and money goes, arranging one's life may be the bigger challenge), it's about the very clear trend of HIVE going to near-zero.
I'm not concerned about HIVE's price going down due to the market. If the crypto market completely collapses, so be it (although I think it's going to keep growing). But I am concerned about Hive disappearing from the scene while the crypto market continues on (with completely usual ups and downs).
So what's your take on this?
(I should also mention I have absolutely no interest in witchhunting, and I personally am not against the @valueplan projects and I'd vote for them if I didn't think the involved expenses impact the price very significantly.)
Spreadsheet link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgvuTh0AnL3RNb7hpn8jBgq4hg2i-FnbcnK-wJVtVEg/edit
▶️ 3Speak
The DHF (which is STILL included in the hive inflation basis) is now a significant contributor to the Hive inflation basis, and we are now in death spiral territory unless the DHF (which is now HUGE compared to Hive) is removed from the inflation basis of the chain.
Also the spending of 5 mil per year was insane a few days ago at 4x bigger than the curation rewards (the diminishing inflation over time was one of the main investment thesis into Steem and Hive - a clearly predictable, diminishing inflation attracts investors). Without reducing the daily spending cap on the DHF (which we can easily do as witnesses by the way) to bring DHF spending to a fraction of the inflation planned, predictable, diminishing curation / author rewards we are in serious trouble at these Hive prices.
Essentially, DHF is not a predictable addition to the inflation basis, like the rest of the inflation is, and its not diminishing at these low Hive prices, like the rest of inflation is. This means that at these low prices, there is an involuntary value transfer from the pockets of investors to the pockets of people funded in the DHF. There is no sound basis for investors with this situation, and so, something needs to change ASAP. Then we can talk about HODLing
Im not selling, as the only thing left holding hive up at the moment is the fact that DAps can't sell their hive if they want to continue to run their dapps. but at these prices, thats all that is left holding the hive price up and we are in SERIOUS inflationary death spiral territory based on factors that no matter what we do, we cant really control at this point without witnesses reducing the insane daily spending from the DHF and also forking to get the DHF out of the inflation basis of the chain. Id say that an URGENT fork is needed at this point, particularly to get the DHF out of the inflation basis of the chain
One of these DHF numbers needs to come down to about 2,500 to bring us back into a credible inflation basis
If there is nothing we can do, then blockchain is no better than the regular economy. But even in the regular economy there is a huge difference we can make, and I think even more so in the blockchain economy. Hopefully more people will engage, let's see what we all can think of. Sometimes a big negative turns into a positive.
What can I say?
There are two indisputable truths here:
The need for marketing to raise awareness is the spearhead for adoption and attracting investors.
Overall expenses should not exceed a budget negotiated by governance, at a reasonable percentage without compromising the sustainability of the chain.
Based on these two premises, a world of discussions and debates opens up that should lead us to a middle ground, in order to pursue both objectives.
Without metrics or expense control, it is impossible to know where efforts are headed.
But everything we have described is just common sense. Do you know what is difficult?
Getting so many people to agree. And that is the key to any kind of discussion. Being able to reach agreements without bloodshed.
I can only add that common sense must permeate the debate. It's that simple.
Very well said. And we need to keep discussing. My thinking is that in this discussing some things will gradually surface up, and they will sound pretty good and have common sense, and there will be enough consensus on them. If there is no consensus yet, we haven't discussed it enough.
I really appreciate this logical and truly fundamental analysis.
Thank you, I appreciate that you participate in the conversation.
It is very rare that I have little to say on posts - and this is one of those - my only suggestion - if you can include a link to the google sheet / data set in the original body - so those who wish to validate your data can.
It is the only thing missing. I am not going to repeat your work, as I recognise you have done the research and speak with authority on the matter, backed by data. :)
Again, fantastic job to remove emotion from the analysis.
Oh, I was wondering whether to put the link but thought nobody would be interested. So I'm pleasantly surprised. :) Included the link.
Thanks very much for the feedback, it's good to know what works.
@blocktrades @smooth @theycallmedan @aggroed @oflyhigh @stoodkev @brianoflondon @bluemist @ecoinstant @roelandp @vaultec @vortac @etblink @actifit @bubke @ecency @mynewlife @hallmann @davidthompson57 @guiltyparties @fermionico @blackheart1 @elevator09 @hivecuba @lesiopm @zirochka @worldmappin @lordbutterfly @danielvehe @browery
Sorry for tagging you, it's just that you are major voters for valueplan and I think this matter is quite important. Curious about your thoughts here.
It sure looks like Valueplan is killing Hive to me. There is one obvious course of action to rectify the situation: quit funding Valueplan.
Thanks!
I also think it would be good to stop funding it until we figure out how we can improve. Otherwise we are leaving ourselves with far less options and far closer to oblivion.
The problem in a plutocracy is that the entire Demos can agree on solutions to draining of the economy that profits plutocrats, but convincing the plutocrats that profiting from the plight of the plebs is a problem is unlikely to relieve the exsanguination. We're all tiptoeing around the reality that Valueplan (VP) is voted over the Return Proposal by the architect of The Code(tm). Every account in this thread only exists on Hive at their pleasure. That's why we tiptoe.
However, that deference is without utility to preserve our accounts if the platform faints and collapses because it has been relieved of the burden of it's life's blood. I have read the posts of the whistleblowers credibly alleging fraud and confronted the VP principals demanding they show receipts to demonstrate no fraud occurred. Both GP and LB refused, and LB retorted with such outrage that a child caught with their hand in a cookie jar would be embarrassed.
As a result I have refused to vote any proposal that did not commit to using GAAP (generally accepted accounting procedures - double entry bookkeeping), voted the Return Proposal, and have called for the community to do the same. Marky has a great proposal on the table right now and I implored him to commit to the trivial accounting that would be necessary to allow me to vote for the proposal - which I strongly favor - but he simply stated what the funds would be used for and would not agree to provide the actual ledger. No one else even cared.
That is the only thing we can do as the Demos in a plutocracy to prevent VP from being funded, and that will only work if we all do it. I have been doing it since I learned fraud was alleged and the VP principals responsible to prevent fraud refused to provide receipts, because that's why GAAP exists, to reveal whether an economic entity is doing honest business or not. In this situation our stake is our only voice.
Sound principles underlie sound business, and the failure to stand on sound principles of accounting has become an existential threat to the Hive platform. No one that cares about this issue, and their stake, has to say so, call out the plutocrats, and risk being flagged into penury. All we have to do is withdraw and withhold votes for any proposals that do not commit - and deliver - GAAP and vote the Return Proposal.
Fortunately the chain has preserved the record of the interactions I refer to above, and any that doubt me can prove me wrong if it isn't exactly what I claim. I am certain that almost everyone has understanding of double entry bookkeeping necessary to understand why it's necessary. I bet the majority of us also understand why VP principals have refused to account for expenditures of $M's in DHF funds. None of us should then be surprised that VP has become an existential hemorrhage of Hive's life's blood, nor be unwilling to staunch that flow by voting the Return Proposal.
Except, of course, for them feasting on it.
Is it true that the Value Plan pays $ 416 USD ( HBD) per hour to a few people to bring new people to Hive ?
$10,000 USD per day ?
Is that correct ?
$ 36.5 million per year ?
No, those numbers aren't right. You can get the HIVE and HBD payouts that valueplan has made to other accounts, it's in the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgvuTh0AnL3RNb7hpn8jBgq4hg2i-FnbcnK-wJVtVEg/edit
Ok $45,000 USD per month… $ 1,500 USD per day
Not bad.
I have brought more people to Hive via my YouTube Channel and X.com
And everything downvoted to Zero
Something I've been saying for a while is that every proposal should include a business plan with a tangible definition of what success looks like. More importantly, that with the exception of core coding proposals and ones with a well-reasoned explanation of how many new users will be bought in per HBD spent, the DHF should operate more as a loan-giver than a grant-giver.
But I strongly believe the level of spending by the DHF on proposals with little or no tangible benefit just cannot go on. It feels like it's just a way for a circle of mutually-supportive whales to just drain all the market capital out of the project.
I'm at the point where although I'll carry on using Hive as a social and blogging platform, I'm losing confidence in it as a part of my investment portfolio. It's too late to do much with HP this time around, but I'm seriously looking to liquidate my HBD so that I can at least get back most of the fiat I've invested in HIVE before it's too late.
I really agree a better handle on DHF payouts would do the ecosystem a lot of good. And that the current spending patterns do good things but also a lot of damage.
Makes sense that people would lose confidence in HIVE for investment.
The link seems logic but can not judge it but we need to do something, no idea to be honest what - reduce spendings is for sure one but which spendings?
What would you reduce or what would you change?
Haha, i expected that question - i come from marketing and sales and have some history with proposals - in terms of spendings to reduce I think we all know what we would reduce (the major one - but heard from GP that is owned by us).
And to be fair - if i trust anyone on Hive it is @guiltyparties - a great guy - I still have my issues with this car in a sports area I do not see benefit but check what he said (sure you read and know that anyway):
https://peakd.com/valueplan/@guiltyparties/t2ynax
What I learned in my jobs marekting/sales wise - if we threw away money it was useless branding or useless events. While events for branding take time to result in leads/deals I expect still in my jobs a max of 2 years from visit at a booth MQL(marketing qualified lead) to become an SQL (Sales qualified lead) - if not go different path.
I am more sales than marketing - my take marketing needs to support sales or generate leads/deals (in our case investors / users that do not leave immediately) on their own. If marketing does not bring value we need to swap marketing. But as we are a community, not a company sales is tricky nad hardly possible to implement.
Great video @borislavzlatanov. Of course flooding the exchanges with that volume of Hive will decrease the value. It is nice to see just how much The question is how much would Hive be worth if there wasn't this drain? I've always found when Hive hits the $1 mark that people come back and start using Hive again but they couldn't be bothered when Hive is 18 cent etc. Is Valueplan actually doing the opposite on what it sets out to be? Offboarding people 🤣
I was thinking the same when looking at the data - that it's pushing people away big time. I mean, if you want more users, you can hardly have a more effective way than maintaining a good price. And you are obviously going to lose a ton of users by devaluing the price.
The correlation seems pretty tight. The funds from Value Plan usually end up on the market, rarely bringing back some value that can be quantified in market cap, ranking or price of HIVE.
Yeah, it's a pretty big bummer we can't see some concrete benefit from all this spending, and even worse that it seems to impact the price and rank so much.
And the bigger question is, considering the impact on hive price, is it worth it?