Looking at data to answer the question: Does the @valueplan spending impact the price of HIVE, and by how much?
While this video was uploading, I realized that the last time I made a video was during the hostile takeover. So I guess it takes an existential threat for me to make a video.
So yes, I do think it's important and I hope you will engage with the topic so we can collectively figure out what we want to do. This is not simply about money (money comes and money goes, arranging one's life may be the bigger challenge), it's about the very clear trend of HIVE going to near-zero.
I'm not concerned about HIVE's price going down due to the market. If the crypto market completely collapses, so be it (although I think it's going to keep growing). But I am concerned about Hive disappearing from the scene while the crypto market continues on (with completely usual ups and downs).
So what's your take on this?
(I should also mention I have absolutely no interest in witchhunting, and I personally am not against the @valueplan projects and I'd vote for them if I didn't think the involved expenses impact the price very significantly.)
Spreadsheet link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgvuTh0AnL3RNb7hpn8jBgq4hg2i-FnbcnK-wJVtVEg/edit
▶️ 3Speak
The DHF (which is STILL included in the hive inflation basis) is now a significant contributor to the Hive inflation basis, and we are now in death spiral territory unless the DHF (which is now HUGE compared to Hive) is removed from the inflation basis of the chain.
Also the spending of 5 mil per year was insane a few days ago at 4x bigger than the curation rewards (the diminishing inflation over time was one of the main investment thesis into Steem and Hive - a clearly predictable, diminishing inflation attracts investors). Without reducing the daily spending cap on the DHF (which we can easily do as witnesses by the way) to bring DHF spending to a fraction of the inflation planned, predictable, diminishing curation / author rewards we are in serious trouble at these Hive prices.
Essentially, DHF is not a predictable addition to the inflation basis, like the rest of the inflation is, and its not diminishing at these low Hive prices, like the rest of inflation is. This means that at these low prices, there is an involuntary value transfer from the pockets of investors to the pockets of people funded in the DHF. There is no sound basis for investors with this situation, and so, something needs to change ASAP. Then we can talk about HODLing
Im not selling, as the only thing left holding hive up at the moment is the fact that DAps can't sell their hive if they want to continue to run their dapps. but at these prices, thats all that is left holding the hive price up and we are in SERIOUS inflationary death spiral territory based on factors that no matter what we do, we cant really control at this point without witnesses reducing the insane daily spending from the DHF and also forking to get the DHF out of the inflation basis of the chain. Id say that an URGENT fork is needed at this point, particularly to get the DHF out of the inflation basis of the chain
One of these DHF numbers needs to come down to about 2,500 to bring us back into a credible inflation basis
If there is nothing we can do, then blockchain is no better than the regular economy. But even in the regular economy there is a huge difference we can make, and I think even more so in the blockchain economy. Hopefully more people will engage, let's see what we all can think of. Sometimes a big negative turns into a positive.
Inflationary death spiral.. sounds serious. Explain it like I'm 6
@blocktrades @smooth @theycallmedan @aggroed @oflyhigh @stoodkev @brianoflondon @bluemist @ecoinstant @roelandp @vaultec @vortac @etblink @actifit @bubke @ecency @mynewlife @hallmann @davidthompson57 @guiltyparties @fermionico @blackheart1 @elevator09 @hivecuba @lesiopm @zirochka @worldmappin @lordbutterfly @danielvehe @browery
Sorry for tagging you, it's just that you are major voters for valueplan and I think this matter is quite important. Curious about your thoughts here.
Hi, sorry for the late reply.
As the leader of VP-funded projects, I can assure you that we seek the best for Hive, with the least possible investment. What we receive is spent over as long a period as possible, so that it does not cause selling pressure. This way, it has almost no impact on the markets. We also publish reports on all the work we do. We make constant adjustments to improve results. The most difficult thing for us is user retention.
VP should exist, although in my opinion there are some of its projects that I would discard in order to include new ones. There is room for improvement.
Dapps should invest in marketing. Dapps must have their own business models. Dapps need to be seen as centralized businesses in a decentralized ecosystem, and dapp owners are business owners who need to invest in marketing and make their businesses profitable. To me, it makes no sense for someone to create a business and then have others do the marketing work for free. This would ease the burden on the VP and DHF budgets.
I also don't think dapps should be funded forever.
Thanks for responding. How would you determine which projects would continue and which would stop getting funding?
Regarding dapps, I alto think it's an important topic and probably lots of room for improvement there. There's not much collaboration, for example, and many things are being re-built by each dapp. But good to keep the focus on valueplan here and leave dapps as a related discussion that can be had.
Any project exceeding $50,000 per year should submit a proposal directly to the DHF.
I think all DHF spending (and post rewards) ultimately affects the price of Hive both in terms of direct cost (selling pressure) as well as positively by whatever value is achieved (attention, recruiting, platform development, etc.)
My opinion is that, given the price drop over the past couple of years (not just the recent volatility), we're spending too much on DHF, and more people should vote for return to bump some, or even many, of the lower-ranked proposals out of getting funded as long as the price is so low. The prioritization of the different DHF proposals should be up to the degree of stakeholder consensus, so I don't think VP is really special, although to be fair it is very large.
What can I say?
There are two indisputable truths here:
The need for marketing to raise awareness is the spearhead for adoption and attracting investors.
Overall expenses should not exceed a budget negotiated by governance, at a reasonable percentage without compromising the sustainability of the chain.
Based on these two premises, a world of discussions and debates opens up that should lead us to a middle ground, in order to pursue both objectives.
Without metrics or expense control, it is impossible to know where efforts are headed.
But everything we have described is just common sense. Do you know what is difficult?
Getting so many people to agree. And that is the key to any kind of discussion. Being able to reach agreements without bloodshed.
I can only add that common sense must permeate the debate. It's that simple.
Very well said. And we need to keep discussing. My thinking is that in this discussing some things will gradually surface up, and they will sound pretty good and have common sense, and there will be enough consensus on them. If there is no consensus yet, we haven't discussed it enough.
I really appreciate this logical and truly fundamental analysis.
Thank you, I appreciate that you participate in the conversation.
It is very rare that I have little to say on posts - and this is one of those - my only suggestion - if you can include a link to the google sheet / data set in the original body - so those who wish to validate your data can.
It is the only thing missing. I am not going to repeat your work, as I recognise you have done the research and speak with authority on the matter, backed by data. :)
Again, fantastic job to remove emotion from the analysis.
Oh, I was wondering whether to put the link but thought nobody would be interested. So I'm pleasantly surprised. :) Included the link.
Thanks very much for the feedback, it's good to know what works.
As has been repeated over and over already - without any kind of accountability or performance tracking, the spending from the DHF is a huge liability for Hive.
What could have been a powerful tool to aid growth and to draw in more investment has seemingly not achieved either to a measurable degree. The lack of performance metrics means that no-one can really prove that the money has been meaningfully spent, yet the spending continues apace.
I am not surprised to see the correlation between token price and DHF spending. Since we have no user feedback tracking on Hive, I can only presume that the connection is due to a combination of the selling of tokens paid out by the DHF and also a negative PR sentiment generated by the ongoing process.
I shouldn't really need to say any more than this for those involved to recognise that urgent and radical change is necessary - but since I have been saying this for years already, with no appreciable changes being made - it seems that I am probably just wasting my time saying anything.
It sure looks like Valueplan is killing Hive to me. There is one obvious course of action to rectify the situation: quit funding Valueplan.
Thanks!
I also think it would be good to stop funding it until we figure out how we can improve. Otherwise we are leaving ourselves with far less options and far closer to oblivion.
The problem in a plutocracy is that the entire Demos can agree on solutions to draining of the economy that profits plutocrats, but convincing the plutocrats that profiting from the plight of the plebs is a problem is unlikely to relieve the exsanguination. We're all tiptoeing around the reality that Valueplan (VP) is voted over the Return Proposal by the architect of The Code(tm). Every account in this thread only exists on Hive at their pleasure. That's why we tiptoe.
However, that deference is without utility to preserve our accounts if the platform faints and collapses because it has been relieved of the burden of it's life's blood. I have read the posts of the whistleblowers credibly alleging fraud and confronted the VP principals demanding they show receipts to demonstrate no fraud occurred. Both GP and LB refused, and LB retorted with such outrage that a child caught with their hand in a cookie jar would be embarrassed.
As a result I have refused to vote any proposal that did not commit to using GAAP (generally accepted accounting procedures - double entry bookkeeping), voted the Return Proposal, and have called for the community to do the same. Marky has a great proposal on the table right now and I implored him to commit to the trivial accounting that would be necessary to allow me to vote for the proposal - which I strongly favor - but he simply stated what the funds would be used for and would not agree to provide the actual ledger. No one else even cared.
That is the only thing we can do as the Demos in a plutocracy to prevent VP from being funded, and that will only work if we all do it. I have been doing it since I learned fraud was alleged and the VP principals responsible to prevent fraud refused to provide receipts, because that's why GAAP exists, to reveal whether an economic entity is doing honest business or not. In this situation our stake is our only voice.
Sound principles underlie sound business, and the failure to stand on sound principles of accounting has become an existential threat to the Hive platform. No one that cares about this issue, and their stake, has to say so, call out the plutocrats, and risk being flagged into penury. All we have to do is withdraw and withhold votes for any proposals that do not commit - and deliver - GAAP and vote the Return Proposal.
Fortunately the chain has preserved the record of the interactions I refer to above, and any that doubt me can prove me wrong if it isn't exactly what I claim. I am certain that almost everyone has understanding of double entry bookkeeping necessary to understand why it's necessary. I bet the majority of us also understand why VP principals have refused to account for expenditures of $M's in DHF funds. None of us should then be surprised that VP has become an existential hemorrhage of Hive's life's blood, nor be unwilling to staunch that flow by voting the Return Proposal.
Except, of course, for them feasting on it.
I'm not tiptoeing around anything.
Do you want projects to provide screenshots of receipts? Or could you share an example template that projects could use? I'm thinking not many people are familiar with GAAP. I looked at your conversation with Marky and he seemed willing to provide you with a cost breakdown but you wanted it in a specific format, so it could be easier if you can provide the format.
Double entry bookkeeping is simply a ledger with income and outgo recorded as they occur on a regular (usually monthly) basis. Marky doesn't see the need for his project because almost all the expenses are simply his labor, and he's grossly undervaluing that for the sake of getting the project funded. I'm not concerned he might be pocketing funds out of turn and demanding the actual ledger to keep him honest, but certain he'll pocket fewer funds than he should be for the work he provides, and requesting he use the ledger format to demonstrate that DHF proposals are able to.
Every mom and pop shop uses double entry bookkeeping, so anyone that has ever been in business is familiar with it. That's GAAP, and it's not difficult for folks that aren't committing shenanigans to do, because it's just writing down what the receipts for expenses actually are, and what the income actually is. During an audit of the books, then the receipts are compared to the ledger, but aren't provided otherwise.
I'm confident an audit of VP is warranted because there are credible allegations of fraud that have not been addressed substantively by the VP principals responsible to manage DHF funds.
Is it true that the Value Plan pays $ 416 USD ( HBD) per hour to a few people to bring new people to Hive ?
$10,000 USD per day ?
Is that correct ?
$ 36.5 million per year ?
No, those numbers aren't right. You can get the HIVE and HBD payouts that valueplan has made to other accounts, it's in the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgvuTh0AnL3RNb7hpn8jBgq4hg2i-FnbcnK-wJVtVEg/edit
Ok $45,000 USD per month… $ 1,500 USD per day
Not bad.
I have brought more people to Hive via my YouTube Channel and X.com
And everything downvoted to Zero
Man I don't even know what to say but here it goes,
It's NOT true that VP pays anyone anything per hour to bring new people to Hive. It can't pay people for anything except some graphics and coding. It is not possible for VP under its scope and restrictions to pay anyone for anything at all. VP only pays the expenses of carrying out promotional activities.
Example: You need to put a Hive standing banner in a store that takes HBD. You then speak to a local printing shop and find out the banner will cost $40. VP will issue 40 HBD to pay for this banner. You will then pay the printing shop, wait, and when the banner is ready you will bring it to the HBD store and put it up. The end.
VP has a 1 mil HBD a year budget divided into 4 quarters. That means its 250,000 HBD a quarter. It is NOT 36.5 mil per year as the proposal does not sit active all year. The proposal fills the budget and is done.
Thanks for the Clarification and breakdown of Total spending …
$1 million USD per year.
People doing Graphics, Coding, flights, hotels, Meals, uber, Car drivers, etc etc… it’s all good. No complaints … it’s the cost of Marketing a Decentralized Crypto.
Something I've been saying for a while is that every proposal should include a business plan with a tangible definition of what success looks like. More importantly, that with the exception of core coding proposals and ones with a well-reasoned explanation of how many new users will be bought in per HBD spent, the DHF should operate more as a loan-giver than a grant-giver.
But I strongly believe the level of spending by the DHF on proposals with little or no tangible benefit just cannot go on. It feels like it's just a way for a circle of mutually-supportive whales to just drain all the market capital out of the project.
I'm at the point where although I'll carry on using Hive as a social and blogging platform, I'm losing confidence in it as a part of my investment portfolio. It's too late to do much with HP this time around, but I'm seriously looking to liquidate my HBD so that I can at least get back most of the fiat I've invested in HIVE before it's too late.
I really agree a better handle on DHF payouts would do the ecosystem a lot of good. And that the current spending patterns do good things but also a lot of damage.
Makes sense that people would lose confidence in HIVE for investment.
The link seems logic but can not judge it but we need to do something, no idea to be honest what - reduce spendings is for sure one but which spendings?
What would you reduce or what would you change?
Haha, i expected that question - i come from marketing and sales and have some history with proposals - in terms of spendings to reduce I think we all know what we would reduce (the major one - but heard from GP that is owned by us).
And to be fair - if i trust anyone on Hive it is @guiltyparties - a great guy - I still have my issues with this car in a sports area I do not see benefit but check what he said (sure you read and know that anyway):
https://peakd.com/valueplan/@guiltyparties/t2ynax
What I learned in my jobs marekting/sales wise - if we threw away money it was useless branding or useless events. While events for branding take time to result in leads/deals I expect still in my jobs a max of 2 years from visit at a booth MQL(marketing qualified lead) to become an SQL (Sales qualified lead) - if not go different path.
I am more sales than marketing - my take marketing needs to support sales or generate leads/deals (in our case investors / users that do not leave immediately) on their own. If marketing does not bring value we need to swap marketing. But as we are a community, not a company sales is tricky nad hardly possible to implement.
What I understood from you is that it would be good to have a closer connection between marketing campaigns and the final outcomes we are looking for - something like that? (In our case it could be users that stick around.)
Sure, typical business sales/marketing probably has to be adapted to fit for us.
Correct - clear KPIs to define what Marketing should deliver - users are one - marekting attracts them, they might even join but then it is the task of all of us or the ones bringing someone in to retain them mainly.
If I see an event I need to work on KPIs upfront, let us see at least 50 MQLs that convert to (example):
If not planned outcome failed - KPIS need to be evaluated (next event to be planned accordingly or cancelled). Not expecting immediate outcome from an event (takes a while - marketing job to keep in touch with most promising leads then -when no account we need to bond them via emaoil / Discord or whatever but we need their contact details and honestly evaluate their potential - focus on people that really show interest and also have some spare money to buy into Hive (ideally crypto open folks).
Great video @borislavzlatanov. Of course flooding the exchanges with that volume of Hive will decrease the value. It is nice to see just how much The question is how much would Hive be worth if there wasn't this drain? I've always found when Hive hits the $1 mark that people come back and start using Hive again but they couldn't be bothered when Hive is 18 cent etc. Is Valueplan actually doing the opposite on what it sets out to be? Offboarding people 🤣
I was thinking the same when looking at the data - that it's pushing people away big time. I mean, if you want more users, you can hardly have a more effective way than maintaining a good price. And you are obviously going to lose a ton of users by devaluing the price.
And the bigger question is, considering the impact on hive price, is it worth it?
This is a question I hope stakeholders ask themselves. I am providing this data and analysis to hopefully help them better assess some of the factors involved.
I wouldn't be singling out valueplan if your concern is the effect (on the price) of the total amount of spending. Vote up the return proposal to make it harder for lower-ranked proposals to get funded. The ones that get cut off are the ones with the least amount of stakeholder support.
Of course, if you think VP isn't a worthwhile project, then by all means unvote it, but that didn't seem to be the case from the text of your post (didn't watch the video).
I don't mean to single out valueplan, for sure. So maybe I left the wrong impression. But I did mean to focus the analysis on it since it has the biggest funding and the effect on price would be more easily seen there. Another approach would be to analyze all the proposals combined and probably that is a worthwhile one to do as well (although might be more complicated, and I think it's more useful if you take a very close look at the granular data and notice patterns that way). Another reason is that in the interest of sparking some change in stakeholder voting, the valueplan seemed like the one that will have the most effect and probably the easiest to make changes to (though still not easy). So I wanted to inform stakeholders about it.
I looked roughly at all the proposals (excluding the stabilizer which returns the payments) and it was around 5 million USD per year. Seemed like a lot given the current market cap. So overall I agree with some budget cutting right now.
The correlation seems pretty tight. The funds from Value Plan usually end up on the market, rarely bringing back some value that can be quantified in market cap, ranking or price of HIVE.
Yeah, it's a pretty big bummer we can't see some concrete benefit from all this spending, and even worse that it seems to impact the price and rank so much.
10 grand a day! For what!!!
It is frightening how much money is thrown away by the DHF and Value Plan in particular.
It is not sustainable but the whales won't change their opinions.
It will stop once it fills the budget of 250k HBD. It will also not spend all the money at once. VP pays its bills as they come up and all bulk sums (large conference sponsorships) have been removed for this quarter.
What do we do to improve the situation?