Here's a fancy conspiracy theory regarding the Nordstream pipeline explosions.
What if Russia had booby-trapped the new Baltic Pipeline going from Norway to Poland. NATO noticed this and then moved the bombs to the two Nordstream Pipelines. Fully confident that they would blow up the new pipelines, Russia then pushed the button and blew up its own pipelines.
I consider this scenario to be feasible for several reasons:
- It's clear that with the Baltic Pipeline, Russia would lose a good part of its leverage over Germany and Western Europe.
- Blowing up the Baltic Pipeline would have caused a similar degree of confusion about who the perpetrator may be.
- Accepting the destruction of NATO-controlled pipelines would have meant war. It may be that the scenario we are in right now is the one where the goal is to prevent an escalation.
- Instead of moving the bombs in their entirety, it is imaginable that NATO put similar bombs next to Nordstream and only moved the trigger to the new ones.
- Since there were at least three explosions, but you only need one to destroy a pipeline, it may be that Russia booby-trapped several underwater pipelines that are not under its control.
- All relevant actors have the capabilities to accomplish the necessary tasks involved.
What do you think of this? I know, it's a bit off, but isn't all a bit off right now?
That is definitely an option however I really don't see that it being possible.
First off Russia has detailed surveys and documentation on the exact location of these pipelines and areas that they are extremely susceptible to this kind of sabotage.
Next up is the amount of explosives needed to create a 2.3 and 2.1 Richter scale seismic reading.
It takes 320 lb of explosives to cause a 1.5 Richter scale.
320 =1.5
3200=1.6
32,000= 1.7
320,000=1.8
3,200,000=1.9
32,000,000=2.0
320,000,000=2.1
3,200,000,000=2.2
Basically looking at the energy released the world needs to consider that russia has just used nuclear devices underwater.
The pipelines had a pressure of 100 bar. With the surrounding area being 80m deep, this results in a net over-pressure of around 20 bar. If that rips apart, you get a nice explosion on its own. How much do you think does this over-pressure reduce the amount of explosives needed?
Well that's the entire thing is if you listen to the Navy SEAL talking about this why you would even need to set off an explosion that would measure so high?
Literally all you need is a couple of ounces because the second that you rupture that pipeline sympathetic reaction happens causing further damage to that pipeline ripping it apart....
Why would you need to set off such a huge explosion when only a couple of ounces of explosive on a shaped charge is more than sufficient?
Well it's a statement. And very carefully done at the very edge of a NATO country.
And the force of that tells a huge amount about exactly what munition was used.
You're talking about thousands of tons of energy was released to cause a 2.3 Richter scale event.
I think so, too. Maybe even the right acid mixture would be enough to weaken the structure enough to get it to rip apart by itself.
But by whom and why Nordstream and not the new Baltic pipeline that even crosses Nordstream at one point?
German authorities speak of 500kg TNT.
Personally I really don't think that 500 kg is enough to cause a 2.3 seismic event.
However just the sheer knowledge getting out is definitely going to be catastrophic for Russia if they were to have used a nuclear device and even a small nuclear device.
I'm not saying they used one of the big ones I'm saying they just used a small tactical one and most likely a remote operated vehicle to place it in a position where it would damage both these pipelines at once.
And it's four pipelines so. There's big huge problems going down and of course the initial claims are going to be understated and claim conventional munitions.
However the unfortunate fact of such a large Richter scale event? And Richter scale events are clearly measurable. And exponential.
320 kg of explosive will equal 1.5 Richter scale measurement.
That means if we extrapolate that data 10 * 10 * 10 * 10 * 10 * 10 * 10.... You end up with a massive amount of energy release.
And it really doesn't matter how much was used it was so excessive that it puts out its own message.
I have too little knowledge about this, but haven't heard anyone with expertise mentioning this.
If it was Russia, then they did send a powerful message. They could destroy all sorts of infrastructure in international waters and cause a complete meltdown of the global economy with Europe going down the most. In the worst case, we'd end with 10$ per day or roughly the mid 1950s again, but without a war hardened generation and no social or cultural cohesion.
On top comes the motive for Russia that it is a massive land power connecting various global regions. Irrespective of who the perpetrator was, the explosions will give them a massive advantage over projects in open waters like pipelines, communication cables, oil drilling, or even shipping. All of that will have to be reinforced with no end in sight. Costs will quadruple to protect everything sufficiently against such attacks.
Look up Richter scale...
Do some simple math. It's crazy...
Yeah there's no way 500 kg of explosive was used. It was way more.
Interesting theory, but a few questions come to my mind.
Why would Russia want to blow up NATO-controlled pipelines? What are the incentives for Russia to do so?
Why would NATO want to blow up German-controlled pipelines, instead of just exposing "Russian plot" to destroy Baltic pipeline?
If Nord Stream blows up, who gains the most? Is it Europe which is already in energy crisis, or the US which recently became the top LNG exporter of the world and selling LNG to Europe for big profit?
xD
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Why would it mean that over pipelines are compromised, if 3x necessary explosives are used in the Nord Stream case?
Not sure what your context is. Why do you think Nordstream needed 3x the explosives than other pipelines would need to blow up?
You put that there.
Ahso. What I meant was that three explosives for two pipelines is one explosive too much. My speculation would be that Russia may have booby-trapped three pipelines with three explosives and when they took them, they places two of them on the same pipeline.
Why placing them at one place and move them later? I can't see circumstantial evidence which could indicate that. To be honest the reason after all is not that coherent. But on the other hand English is just my 2nd language.