Numbers for the upcoming Hardfork

in Hive Statistics4 years ago (edited)

As you probably noticed, @HiveIO very recently published a new announcement about the "airdrop" exclusion list, in which they published a list of accounts which were excluded due to an error in the script which created the list of accounts to be excluded. I recommend reading this announcement prior to reading my post. The published list includes the following accounts:

@akiroq
@balticbadger
@dailychina
@dailystats
@dftba
@double-u
@edgarare1
@electrodo
@fadetoblack
@freedompoint
@friendlystranger
@john371911
@juancar347
@kdtkaren
@lichtblick
@lifeskills-tv
@lotusfleur
@ricko66
@rynow
@scottcbusiness
@seo-boss
@sgbonus
@spoke
@steemchiller
@steemflower
@stimp1024
@travelnepal
@truce
@tuckerjtruman
@wisdomandjustice
@yanirauseche

These accounts all had a stake of >= 1000 SP before the hardfork. In the block the hardfork happened, the block #41818752, those accounts, and all other accounts that were excluded got their liquid funds were directly transferred to @steem.dao, and their vests (=the "backend" value for HP/SP) were converted to Steem and sent to @steem.dao in liquid form as well. Soon, there will be a hardfork which will revert the error, and give the aforementioned users their funds back. Following is a table of those users and the amount of funds they had at the time of the Hardfork. In the rightmost column is the amount of Steem their vests were converted to:

AccountSBDSteemVestsVests (in Steem)
@akiroq0.0040.05222981.2801652666.921
@balticbadger0.2233.0119862512.1947545035.925
@dailychina0.00.02287357.3851651167.954
@dailystats0.00.03603646.5878131840.068
@dftba5.602863.8694338257.3339692215.163
@double-u0.0583.674212718890.306873108616.998
@edgarare17.46118.90916042156.5958968191.331
@electrodo0.0475.78621991505.21431611229.145
@fadetoblack0.0650.0442122918.4503921083.989
@freedompoint0.015.13515903691.5211918120.629
@friendlystranger2.5390.01421669701.652096215309.96
@john371911118.930.055920030.73288128553.486
@juancar34765.614349.16915741601.7494418037.864
@kdtkaren0.0060.0115087676.7273332597.833
@lichtblick27.4163649.51286182609.78379544005.948
@lifeskills-tv0.0764.5532989637.2914611526.547
@lotusfleur2.382377.4933392176.445331732.088
@ricko660.0240.013954082.2240762019.005
@rynow19.27132.38720343780.91958710387.795
@scottcbusiness0.055.3053875676.0534921978.97
@seo-boss0.05315.91650151173.71707625607.833
@sgbonus128.478315.0354685876.8644642392.668
@spoke0.0310.029245675.43431814933.217
@steemchiller0.549231.8843545034.9943591810.14
@steemflower0.01841.2238190586.5652914182.177
@stimp10240.00.099408662.97365450759.34
@travelnepal0.00.05211178.8051932660.894
@truce63.1247076.77198440810.8539850265.143
@tuckerjtruman0.00.03014518.8069361539.252
@wisdomandjustice0.290.022375663318.81511191818.518
@yanirauseche0.60722.2012826858.0527051443.43
Totals442.80315351.9301593634586.333112813730.231

I also made some barcharts in which you can compare those numbers visually:
image.png
As you can see, there's always just a few accounts which notably stand out. I will let those charts speak for themselves though.
As you probably know, you get a bit of staking rewards for having your steem powered up. This is just a small amount, but it is very important here. Since the vests in those accounts were converted to steem at the last hardfork, those steem did not create any staking rewards, as they are liquid, and will not create any until the next hardfork. It isn't entirely clear how the accounts will receive their SP/HP back, but @pharesim ensured me that no new coins would be minted. That results in the accounts receiving a smaller vests amount than they had before the hardfork, should they receive them in the form of vests. The discrepancy between them only grows bigger with time. At the moment it is around 1000 Hive worth of vests which are "gone". I tried to graph the discrepancy over time as well, but I could not find any exact formula for the staking rewards at a given time - all I could find was an approximation.

Something that interested me, was how much of the stake that will be given to the accounts was powered up before the hardfork. For this I made yet another visualization, which has all 3 "currencies" converted to Steem for higher comparability. Please pay close attention to the logarithmic scale of the second chart. That makes the chart a bit more complex to read, but without that it was very long and the smaller parts still were too tiny to have proper size. Every major number on the left side means 10x more, so the uppermost part is much bigger than it might seem on first sight.

image.png

I think that this graphic shows very well how tiny the amount of liquid funds were. Note that this is only the accounts which will get removed from the blacklist soon.
While diving into this topic I wondered how big the total blacklisted stake was, and where it came from. So we have a last barchart, again having all assets converted to Steem for comparability. Also, we have both a linear scale on the left and a logarithmic one on the right again.

image.png

In total the following amounts were moved to @steem.dao at the hardfork:

AssetAmount
HBD166015.401
HIVE159823.184
VESTS162961824459.599017
VESTS (converted to HIVE)83210381.578
Everything summed as HIVE84302875.554

@redpalestino gave me the following list of Steemit Inc. accounts that I used as well. Thanks a lot!

@ben
@bitdev100
@geos
@goku1
@hkdev404
@imadev
@joe767676
@misterdelegation
@steem
@steemit
@steemit2
@steemitadmin
@timothy2020
@steemitblog

Also, I added Justin Sun's witness puppets to that list.

I hope you have learned a bit about the upcoming hardfork and have a better understanding of the scale of the things that are happening.
Last but not least I want to send @holger80 a huge thanks. I used beem for all Steem/Hive related tasks. I used matplotlib for the visualizations. I used the current HBD/HIVE price for conversion between those.

Edit: I uploaded my code on Github. It is very ugly, but it works. I guess...

Sort:  

Thank's for this great information. Now we just need to know when the fork is happening and what else they will do with the remaining 99% of Hive which is being held in the Dao. Saving it for the future when the price is rapidly decreasing isn't the best solution. Perhaps a controlled burn is on the table?

They also said a vote would be required for any future airdops but are now changing that to a yes these people are being airdropped because of "mistakes." Hive is not decentralized, this is a centralized mistake and decision.

Put it to a vote!

Well those accounts were really added on the blacklist in error. They should've never been there in the first place. I think it's very good that they are now getting their funds.
What happens with those funds is completely up to the community and the SPS system. iirc there was a proposal which burned funds. Of course that is on the table.

The entire black list should have never been there. It's hard to admit ones mistake and do the right thing which is airdropping all non-steemit accounts. It just makes the arbitrary rules to receive airdrop more ridiculous.

As much as I dislike proxy.token and their supporters for holding the sockpuppets in place, they only helped endure continuing harm and weren't the cause.

Only the accounts that got us into this mess (those 3 exchanges and steemit ones) should be punished, but two of the exchanges managed to lie and cheat their ways out of any real responsibility for their deliberate and harmful act.

Lets have a vote to see if huobi and binance get airdrops....oh wait it seems another dodgy centralized decision was made.

punished

Punished? Nobody was being punished.

Accounts were either actively participating in strengthening a Sybil attack, or they weren't. There's no middle ground there. It's yes or no. True or false. The code didn't care about politics, beliefs, nationalities. If you're to fork a chain to escape a sybil attack/hostile takeover, you cannot include the sybil attack/hostile takeover in the new chain because that would make the new chain pointless.

Since there has always been an appeal process on the table, all excluded accounts were handled fairly and professionally.

If they were to do what you're suggesting, and begin handpicking accounts based on beliefs, then there's a problem.

Accounts were either actively participating in strengthening a Sybil attack, or they weren't.

Or they had a stake of <1000 SP. That is where a bit of arbitrariness comes into play. That number is without any justification, and a more or less round number, which is why it was chosen. I think that this threshold shouldn't have existed, so it really was a True/False for supporting the attack with your stake.

Strengthening, not supporting. Remove the beliefs and politics since that did not play a role.

All witness votes were still in place when the chain was forked. Have a look at the Hive witness list. Those sock puppet accounts are still there. They needed to force those sock puppet accounts far down the list, right? So how would you do that? Am I missing something or is removing the stake backing those sockpuppet witness accounts the only way?

I criticized the 1000 SP threshold. I suppose there are many small accounts which voted for > 1 Sun puppets, which are not on the blacklist because they only have a small amount of Steem Power. This arbitrary threshold causes those attackers, who definitely strengthened the attack, since the do have stake, just not that much, to not end up on the blacklist. What I want to say, is that I would prefer to have either none of the non-stinc accounts on the blacklist, or all of them (that voted the Sun puppets of course)

The hive blockchain is SAFU, so this is punishment.

My main issue is who was punished and who escaped. The dials and levels were twisted and pulled to make a very specific subset of individuals who would be caught in the net. By the time the fork had been announced the damage had been done. Actually, the most damage was done by the people who initially voted for the puppet witnesses, not the idiots who kept up the stalemate.

The exchanges, Binance and Huobi,were let off the hook due to the methods decided to punish enemies of decentralization. This is because many innocent victims would be punished in the crossfire.

This tells me it is about punishment and not about protecting the blockchain. Further, I think some people are sucking up to CZ binance as we speak to get Hive listed there. Hypocrisy?

Let's just sweep this under the rug and give them an airdrop. What's the risk? In theory,they can just buy it back and attack up again.

Why are you talking about politics? That exclusion list was never about politics. You can have your beliefs, but it's not about beliefs either. There's a post above you talking about an error in the code. Some of those people felt 'punished' and thought it was because about 'beliefs', and they were wrong, and I bet some will still continue to feel like they were being punished due to beliefs, even when confronted with the facts. And a lot of that has to do with how some of you folks spin it and turn it into politics and beliefs.

There would have never been an error if the exclusion list was left to the steemit accounts originally blocked during softfork 22.2.

More accounts just had to be added. Why were those with less than 1000sp safe? Why was it maximun 2 fake witnesses? Isn't 17 required. Face it a lot of these decisions were not technical. So what does that make them? Centrally decided by people who created Hive is my best guess.

From a technical standpoint, none of these accounts needed their Hive removed, as just removing Steemit stake would have shifted the balance more than enough to get 17 proper witnesses back and make it expensive to launch another attack.

Even if technicaly difficulties remained, it could have just been held back for a few months until we could fix things.

Someone carefully selected the additional targets and made the punishment permanent for reasons that aren't related to the technical workings of the blockchain. To say there were no political elements or beliefs involved is at least equally as deceptive as saying it was mostly bssed on that.

I was always under the impression that the community agreed to the first soft-fork to just freeze the ninja mined stakes. and one which I did support.

But now there are too many accounts which seem to have been affected. If there was a tech side to it, I would not dare to intervene as I am not a tech guy. But overall it makes me uneasy to carry on with a vindictive approach when we have already forked away and moved on. And it makes me worried for the future.

For me, just freezing out the ninja mined and stinc held stakes would have been enough, and I would have carried on hiving away.

I was always under the impression that the community agreed to the first soft-fork to just freeze the ninja mined stakes. and one which I did support.

Yes, me too. But we decided to get a little revenge on some whose actions clearly demonstrated they support centralization after.

But overall it makes me uneasy to carry on with a vindictive approach when we have already forked away and moved on. And it makes me worried for the future.

Me too. The punishment doesn't fit the crime and too many have escaped justice. Not to mention that in civil society, the idea is reform and not punishment.

Delaying their airdrops by 3~4 months and making them apologize and agree to participate kindly would have been enough.

Thebreal issue is the vulnerability of the system. Hate the game not the players.

making them apologize and agree to participate kindly

You really think they'd stand by their word? They've already shown they have no honour and their promises are useless

The point is to get it on record. If people feel strongs need to be attached that's fine.

"Punishing" Huobi and Binance by removing their funds only screws over people who were already screwed over by Huobi and Binance

It also rewards the decision makers at Binance who have finds there.

This is a lazy way of thinking.

Anyway may I ask why you are downvoting my comments? You do realize when the value falls below 0 they disappear from Hive front ends.

Do you think downvoting me because you disagree with my opinion is acceptable behavior?

I'm sorry my small downvote amount is intimidating, I have downvoted myself a few times to make you feel better.

Thank you. I feel better already.

I'm also not sure where you get the idea that comments disappear, they are only collapsed

I downvote comments that I don't believe are accurate, it's my stake to do what I want with, and it helps move comments down lower.

I do not intent to spread inaccurate informations. Mostly this is my opinion which is subjective. Please point out the inaccurate content so I may better understand what part you are confused about.

These people deserve their Hive and reasonable compensations for their inflation losses and pains and sufferings.

But yeah, it's a centralized solution to an error made by a centralized decision. Just another example of the risks and dangers associated with centralized decision making.

Truthfully, they define decentralization to suit their given narrative at the time. Today it means no Justin Sun or Steemit, which is reasonable. Tomorrow, who knows? Perhaps a reward is due?

The power to move around hive in the dao without a vote in this case seems just. They assure us it won't happen again, just like last time. Just like Justin assured us.

Let's pray it won't happen again amd again and again. I have my doubts.

There will be votes btw for the remaining airdrops.

Votes are like saying no. The people who didn't get an airdrop can't even vote. Fixing the mistakes only cause more problems and raise additional concerns.

Hi @flugschwein ,
Wow! You really put a lot of work into this post.
These are very important facts and figures.
Thank you so much for that!
I am always amazed at your detailed knowledge!
I would not achieve this in two lives ;-)
Stay healthy!

Some of those accounts attacked the chain in other ways.
Now I find out they are getting their stake, and it will likely continue being cancerous to the rest of us.
Smdh.

My question now is, when does all that nonvoting whale stake come out of its closet and tell us Ned sold all that to JS, too?
Or worse, he didn't sell it and will now use it to haunt us until he does.

Some of the accounts that are not on black blacklist "attacked" the chain in other ways as well.
The blacklist has very clear rules for which accounts end up on there. The script creating the first list, did not completely follow these rules. That's why those accounts will get removed from the list. Had they stayed on there, that would've been completely unjustified.

It wouldn't matter, if folks used their down votes.
Some people have all the luck.

awww not enough SP to qualify :(

Not enough SP to qualify for what?

for the airdrop

- voting for 2 or more of the sockpuppet Steem witness accounts, or proxied to someone voting 2 or more sockpuppet accounts
- who did not unvote or unproxy before the Hive hardfork announcement
- who had over 1000 SP

You already got that airdrop - you have 220 Hive Power in your wallet. These criteria you listed are for those who are excluded in the airdrop. There were some accounts which didn't meet those criteria but were excluded anyways. Those accounts will soon get their airdrop.

I think calling it an airdrop is what is causing this type of confusion. It wasn't really an "airdrop"

True. It wasn't an airdrop, and calling it that is confusing and upsetting a lot of people. I wish we would use proper terms for things.

ah sorry my brain must have farted

No worries ^^
Glad I could help resolve this ;)

Same question as the guy above, I wonder if those accounts were really blacklisted by mistake or because they expressed support for Sun's actions.

They were absolutely blacklisted by mistake. The script determining the blacklist did not account for an edge case, and that's why these accounts ended up on the list.

Well, glad to see the mistakes being amended

So we have excluded these accounts by mistake, great. But how do you know that they are really not Sun's puppet?

How come you suspect they are? Let's take double-u as an example: he has been a part of the German community for many years, and hosted a place for chit-chatting on the chain every week (in German). When the blacklist was published he was very shocked to be on there. Since then, a few bigger German accounts delegated Hive to his accounts out of solidarity.
Would you really believe him to be a Sun puppet.
Also, there were very clearly defined rules. I believe that the blacklist should go by exactly these rules.

Interesting question. But I could ask the same of any account. I don't think an expanded witch hunt is what anyone wants.

That's true any account can be a puppet, but for someone bitching on the old chain just because they are left out should not be entitled.

Most of them are remaining silent in this debate, because no matter what they say, their cause will be better helped by their continued silence.

I don't like that things can be tweaked manually behind the scenes. In this case, it seems to be being done for legitimate reasons, but just the fact that it can happen bothers me. It means it could be (and will be) used inappropriately before long.

For the Hive/Steem Hardfork this was more or less required in order to not let Justin Sun try to prevent it. Everything needed to happen very quickly.
This time, things don't really happen behind the scenes. The unblacklisting of those accounts has been announced, it will probably take weeks for the hardfork to go live, and if you don't want to support that, vote witnesses that represent your opinion.

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What about steem?
And is @steem.dao included there? Since that account technically has 83 Million Hive in its wallet now.

Oh right, missed that.
I guess then it would be even worse on steem, since the steemit stake is in that pie chart over there.