$1 million BTC is actually more achievable than it sounds...
We have heard all kinds of price forecasts for bitcoin over the years, including many pie in the sky numbers.
None more memorable than that McAfee $1 million BTC by the end of 2021 prediction or he eats his you know what...
Since that time he has pulled back on that prediction saying it was a publicity ruse... um ok John, you got us.
Either way, that $1 million dollar number may not actually be as crazy as it initially sounded.
Especially if you give it some time to play out.
Ok, so how does it happen?
Xapo CEO Wences Casares recently said all that it will take is for more people to start using it.
It's that simple...
Ok, so how many more people?
His quote:
"My preferred way of guessing how the price of Bitcoin may evolve is much more prosaic. I have noticed over time that the price of Bitcoin fluctuates around ~ $7,000 x how many people own bitcoins. So if that constant maintains and if 3 billion people ever own Bitcoin it would be worth ~ $21 trillion (~ $7,000 x 3 billion) or $1 million per Bitcoin."
(Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/veteran-investor-says-bitcoin-price-surge-to-467-000-is-achievable)
Ok, so we need roughly 3 billion people to start using and owning bitcoin...
That is roughly half of the world's entire population, which means this would be no small feat.
Though, we have continued to see wallet address holding at least some bitcoin continue to grow and grow since inception.
Which means, given a long enough time line, getting to 3 billion isn't out of the realm of possibilities.
Bitcoin just needs to overtake gold and become an ecosystem...
Raoul Pal, the CEO and founder of Real Vision, says that bitcoin just needs to overtake gold and become a widely used ecosystem and could reach that number...
Specifically:
"If it becomes an ecosystem, and we believe it will be and it will take the whole ecosystem with it as well, then yes, I think a $10 trillion number is easily achievable within that process."
(Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/veteran-investor-says-bitcoin-price-surge-to-467-000-is-achievable)
Meaning that people will need to use it widely to transfer wealth and store value in a similar fashion that gold is currently.
Gold is valued at roughly $8 trillion currently, which is more than 45x the total market valuation of bitcoin currently.
If bitcoin eventually just takes the current market valuation of gold, we are looking at bitcoin around half a million dollars.
Then the strong ecosystem gets it the other half a million valuation.
Several very wealthy people are predicting that bitcoin will eventually be a strong ecosystem that is used to transfer and store wealth in a similar fashion to gold that will eventually make it worth close to $1 million per coin.
Perhaps holding some "just in case their right BTC" makes a lot of sense...
Stay informed my friends.
Image Source:
https://busy.org/@joshsigurdson/will-bitcoin-hit-1-million-dollars-the-answer-might-surprise-you
-Doc
This seems yet another case when theory doesn't meet reality... If Bitcoin would ever be worth 1 million, just transferring the minimum usable amount would cost so much that most of the people would vomit hairballs like our pet cats...
Without using calculator, I would say the cost of transferring smallest usable amount would be about 6 times what scam banks charge for sending international payment order.
Several things... BTC will likely never be used for every day payments, at least not in its current iteration. Which is why it makes more sense for storing value. For people that are currently holding gold, how often do they use that buy something or send it to someone else?
Secondly, yes if you were to transfer the smallest usable amounts you would get crushed in fees, but conversely, if you were to send a very large amount it would cost significantly less than the legacy systems. Bitcoin may end up being some sort of settlement layer for central banks around the world, not for everyone to use to buy coffee, at least not in its current iteration.
I'm not holding gold, I'm holding silver... It's customary where I'm from to give silver to all children for nest egg when they grow adults. My parents were not quite traditional, so they also gave me bank stocks, that I did sell for profit before the financial system collapsed here.
It wouldn't make sense to hold pure gold as it would be almost impossible to touch as it is soft like cotton candy.
Even almost pure silver is usually stored in vacuum plastic capsules because it can fade. I used electrolyte soaked aluminium foil strips to clean my silver ring.
Yesterday transferred some BTC and the miner protection money was ten times bigger, than before. I have said since the early days, greed will crash BTC most definitely.
A basic online ledger is nothing new, and the old solution has brought up better alternatives, like actually having many different tokens to store value, social media and a lot more on one blockchain.
Perhaps the bankers and the rich will use BTC to get even more series of numbers, and the miner fees keeps the "poor" away. So disappointed, seems like folks never read the whitepaper. Totally what Satoshi was afraid of and built the platform on deterrent of that exact thing.
Interesting
So miners are adjusting their fees to stay profitable?
Indeed, that was the reason when lost interest on BTC; pools, ASIC and miner fees. At first, there were no fees, since the miners were happy if they got a random reward every now and then. Greed kills good ideas without exception.
When I started mining BTC, it was still barely possible with CPU... It took about 2 weeks to reach minimum payment. If I had had a compatible GPU I would have reached the minimum payment a little faster.
Problem with most ASIC-friendly cryptocurrencies is that the powerful hardware (GPU rigs, FPGA, ASIC) can't be used for solo mining, so only option is pool mining where the difficulty rises exponentially, but the miner reward is shared proportionally, so large pools with many miners give insignificant share of the block reward to single miner, unless they have implemented solver reward bonus.
A basic online ledger that is secured by thousands of people all over the world that don't know each other is something new...
If bitcoin eventually is used for every day payments, it won't be in its current iteration. I foresee bitcoin more akin to digital gold like I mentioned in the post, which eventually works as a settlement layer for central banks and countries around the world. Similar to how countries hold large stocks of gold currently.
We are now communicating on a way more advanced blockchain, than BTC. Central banks would never use Bitcoin as a base for anything but market manipulation.
When ECB can just type in whichever number of investment bank-currency, why in earth would they use a foolproof ledger system? It is so weird, how people don't know how money works, but talk about it all the time.
Because there will likely be some universal settlement layer in the future, especially after it is a race to the bottom in terms of central bank fiat currency money printing. Why would another country want to use something that the other country has an inherent advantage in creating? It's simple, they won't. There needs to be some universal standard, and as it stands right now bitcoin is the most likely candidate at this point in time. Doesn't mean it will play out that way, but there is a non zero chance it is bitcoin, and whatever those odds are, they are higher for bitcoin than anything else that exists at this point in time.
Bitcoin is the foundation of the next evolution of the digital age.
Like gold was for the dollar once upon a time.
With all the wraps and tethers and expanding use cases it's future is obvious.
Wyatt, I am rolling!
Most altcoins try to achieve where Bitcoin failed, but most of them also fail because they can't get as big userbase as Bitcoin has. Nowadays people want cryptocurrency to be more than just store of a value, but no cryptocurrency wants to be like pyramid scheme, where whales have 90% of the supply and the remaining majority have 10% to share.
I feel that as adoption grows that will level out.
The printing presses running out of control will drive people to crypto and thus blockchain.
Check this out
https://decrypt.co/29008/bitcoin-now-accepted-across-20000-retailers-venezuela
As a cryptocurrency developer myself, I sure hope adoption of altcoins will eventually grow... Not just for the biggest ones.
Most altcoins are launched by a central entity, which makes them not all that much different than a sovereign currency. The fact that no one controls bitcoin is the reason central banks and countries will likely agree to use it as a settlement layer. No one has an advantage over the other.
Someone pulls the strings behind even Bitcoin... Otherwise there would be more network splits and forks..
Yep, I agree.
I have 2 guns, one for each of ya...
the fact that it will not surprise many is because of the simple supply and demand game and we know that most of bitcoin have been lost only bunch of people control the majority but with mass adoption this will likely to surge
Yep.
Oh my! The bitcoinland is really crazy.
Why do you say that?