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Ok, maybe it was not a surprise as Bitcoin has been hovering at the near its ATH over recent weeks. We were expecting a correction before the big heave to 80K around the halving but what happened was a crazy one and I was in it for every step of the journey. It was Saturday night , being 40 something and a father of two young kids , I was at home with an Easter Egg , a Heinekein , and a laptop when news came out that Iran were going to invade Israel and away it went. It plummeted. The sky is still blue so all the altcoins plummeted as well. Now it was not like a usual rektoning (if this is a word) . It was a double whammy. Bitcoin dropped, took a breather for everybody who had sold, to take a breather and buy back in. The only problem was it dropped heavily again soon after by the same percentage as it dropped on the initial news. This completely wiped people out and even people who were conservative in their Futures risk were liquidated after the second drop. Now I have gotten out of Futures trading for this very reason. There was a bloke on Twitter that went to bed and woke up with 1 million dollars liquidated. Good lord. The same fellow was out with his begging bowl on Twitter asking for the crypto community to forward him on a couple of thousand to get back in. This ladies and gentlemen is how not to do it. Even when you think your liquidation level is so low that it would never happen. It's crypto ladies and gentlemen. Unless your liquidation level is 0 then you are at risk.
Holding Best Course of Action?
Now that I am trading spot it got me thinking. The whole ethos of trading spot is to hold on and wait for the coins to increase again. But maybe this is not the play that should have been made here. The best play here was to get out straight away, wait for things to plummet and then plummet some more and then buy back in at the very bottom. Yes hindsight is a great thing but many traders do this technique if they even get an incline that there will be a brief drop. Better to lost some of your spot hold than to lose quite alot of value and spend the week before halving cribbled with a negative spot hold. This is why alts plummet as soon as there is a sniff of Bitcoin falling. People sell up for a safe haven to wade out the storm.
Now I kind of got it half right this weekend. I sold at the first plummet and then bought back in on the second plummet. It was against my first principles for my €20 to infinity experiment but I felt if the bombs that went off caused Israel to retaliate then I could have been wiped right out so I took the hit of a couple of hundred euro hoping that the market would keep dropping and it did. So hold on for dear life unless you think there will be an even greater crash coming your way , in which case , sell and buy back cheaper.
Personally I thinking holding is not the right thing to do in most circumstances. When I think of the tokens I held in the first bull run such as COSS, ARDR, NXT, CRO. COSS is gone-zo. NXT and ARDR never went anywhere. In fact ARDR locked funds just as the bear hit losing me quite a bit. ARDR is still lingering but not doing much. CRO keeps changing the goalposts. Most of the tokens I held ended up not gaining much and in fact dropping. The tokens I sold high were the ones that made me the money. So holding for me is not an option with the exception of use cases such as LEO , TIA, DYM and to a lesser extent HIVE because I like to write. I know the price of Hive will drop to 20 cent or less if nothing new is coming to the ecosystem. Greed has got the better of it and the mistakes they made on Steem seem to be carrying over on Hive. The ninja mine is now renamed the DHF fund and this is being syphoned out under the guise of "marketing" by they who shall not be named. We all know who they are. The same bad actors are different names and we have a number of leeches who come across as the good guys but they are not helping the cause whatsoever.
Anyway the point I am making is holding maybe is not the right play anymore. The opportunity cost on missing out on the memecoin rush m the NFT rush , the airdrop on Solana rush and plenty of more rushes ahead is making holders old timers , boring even. The traditional crypto heads. Now the argument is if you held 10000 ethereum back in the day or 10,000 Bitcoin then you would not be giving out. Most of us didn't though.
Futures are Suicide.
We also learned from the weekend that Futures are very very dangerous. I find it very hard to see how anybody , even experienced traders can make gains in this market as it is so volitile. 20X gives you a high chance of liquidation. 50x and 100x are suicide. Many good Futures traders tend to land at 5x or 6x . I have got liquidated on countless occasion and if I ever delve into Futures again it will be for the sole purpose of shorting an asset. I will use 1x and the strategy will be just to keep making money while the market turns red. I will treat it like a spot trade so the chance of liquidation will be minimum. (I still probably will get liquidated ) That is the only way for me. Yes you might get very lucky with a 100x or 50x but you can get lucky betting on a number on the roulette wheel because this is what it is. I see many traders that have massive following on X , tweet around tokens going up and down.
- They never show their position.
- They delete the tweets that they lose.
- They made their money buying Bitcoin in 2013 and made losses ever since.
It is all fake but yet people believe these guys are living the dream. Most of them got lucky by buying lots of Bitcoin back in the day and can soak up a loss but over the years I have seen people lose everything. Like the guy at the weekend who lost 1 million dollars. Madness. If a guy is constantly betting 50x on a long then you are sure as hell guaranteed that the same guy will lose it a couple of days later. But a gambler never talks about his losses only his wins.
Getting In Early is Still The Way to Go But it is Harder Than It Looks
Let us look at the Base Blockchain. Coinbase's blockchain for all the world. They are telling people to mint NFT's and just validate. The more you use Base assets and NFT's then the more Base you will be airdropped. Well that is what we think . Same with the Phantom wallet (well rumoured) but there is no easy airdrop. You got to spend money to make money and if it is too good to be true then the reality is it is a scam. I have a few hundred quid invested in a Shiba Inu wannabe token called Osak which is said to be closely related. It is a hunch that the anonymous character that set up Shiba Inu is now the mastermind behind Osak as some of his mistakes with Shiba have been corrected with Osak. That is enough for me to invest a few hundred in. If it works out then I am a millionaire, if it doesn't then a few posts I wrote on Hive gave me a wild ride. (Shrugs Shoulders). To be the first to a token is 99% of the reason people are rich from crypto. The famous traders on Twitter such as Cobain all got lucky with Bitcoin back in the day. Osaka Protocol is available on multiple blockchains which is great because there is nothing worse than having a token on the Eth blockchain and you spend lots in fees just to buy the token. This to me also is bullish for the coin as the days of paying hundreds in fees should be over. Sol is popular because fees are small which is why I wonder about Hive.
So on writing this the markets have yet to go back up. We are 5 days from halving so I expect a rise very soon. Now here is what happened at the last halving.
Everyone was long on Bitcoin and at the halving Bitcoin went down. It was only until a couple of weeks later than we saw the increase from the halving. History will repeat itself here. I am sure of it so we are in a predicament that some would say was orchestrated. Spot traders are in the red right now and hoping alts will increase over the next 4 days. Praying more like. So my strategy is to hold all the way up to before the halving. Sell right before the halving. See everything plummet for a couple of days. Buy back in low and then trade the way up. The halving is already taken into account in the price of Bitcoin so be weary of it increasing straight away. You will not see the technical effects from the miners for a bit so best to be safe.
Not financial advice and all that. Be weary of the halving. It ain't gonna be all rays of sunshine and seeing that Israel are about to retaliate we may have another dip in the next 2 days. It's gonna to be a wild one but there is alot of money to be made.
Posted Using InLeo Alpha
When I used to dabble with the old trading I made a rule to get out after a 10-15 percent increase. I would then choose to go back in at some point when it looked like there was a chance of it still going up. I used to get slagged off by some for doing this when I told them what I did but I laughed at them because these were the same people that dollar cost averaged into things but couldn't see that each week I would be making money and they would be holding for life and crying everytime their portfolio crashed.
There is no foolproof way to do it but I agree, bitter experience taught me that hodling is bad! Except for Bitcoin. Amma still hodlin that :O)
Yeah mate Im the same. The tokens never go straight up,. They always fall and rise again. I am doing that to PEPE at the moment and it is actually really easy to predict the peaks and troughs. Its bottom is around .00000500 or .000000490 and it goes up to around 0.000000580 and back down again so I am playing this card right now. The only shit thing about this method is if you buy a doge or shiba type asset and you could be a millionaire for holding 10 pence worth of them. I'd say the guy that owned the whole of dogecoin and sold all his stake for a Honda is kicking himself now. I would be permanently sick. It happened me once on one coin. I sold 120,000 at 10 cent and a week later it was 1.20. I'm still sore over it. The security man in work had the same amount and he held on. Paid ff his fucking mortgage.
I like those coins at that thing in the market where they just oscillate between a certain peak and trough!
I have been in that position too. Sold a shedload of Doge over way before Elon. Has a pile of those steemhunt tokens and digit claim them in time then they mooned. Sad times!!!
I'm imagining a downward pressure is more likely to happen. Maybe the price will have a short rally up fueled by speculators that think the worse is over and now it's all the way up but they'll get caught by sellers trapped high and trying to breakeven or cut their losses. I wouldn't be trading and just wait for a couple of days to see the trend happening post halving. Really not worth gambling the money just to FOMO, there's always another opportunity to profit from market.
People will get a fright at how much it will drop. Also Israel is meant to be planning the retaliation on Saturday 20th so it will a fun day all round that day mate. 😃 Thanks for stopping by .
TO add to that, the string of major economic news happening near the halving times:
April 17 employment and unemployment rate from the US
There's April 18 Japan's Inflation Rate report inflation report after they raised their interest rates
And it's close to TGIF or Weekend time which is like a complete alignment of the stars for volatility happening, a lot are going to get rekt on both sides with tighter stop losses. Should be fun.
Took a while to process the post but it's insightful. Have a nice day!
@tipu curate
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