I was lucky enough to get my hand on a few punks on Hive, the generative NFT event launched a couple a weeks ago. As the dust settled over the minting page, all the attention move to the other place: the punks secondary market. I guess I could just name it simply "market", but because there was a first minting event, it just came more natural to call it "secondary".
If you don't know yet, you can put your punk on sale. Some pretty neat deals came through in the last few days, the biggest one being the acquisition of a punk fo 3500 HIVE (by @yabapmatt, if I'm not mistaken). I think that also coincided with HIVE trading above $3, so that netted $10k. Not bad for JPEG, right? (I'm kidding, I know very well they're not just JPEGs).
As I was watching the market, I decided to try a little bit of a strategy. It's clear we are very, very early, and there aren't too many buyers (yet). But a few trends can emerge even in a relatively small market (I say relatively because, again, on this market someone cashed in $10k already on a single sale).
Here's what I saw in terms of general trends:
- the rarity seems to be more often than not the price. For example, If a punk has a 259 rarity, the price is usually 259 HIVE.
- for higher rarity, sometimes the price is 25-30% lower. For example, a punk with a 5500 rarity, may be seen for a price around 3500 HIVE
- lower rarity punks are more liquid (understandably, because they are cheaper)
- lower rarity punks can sometimes be traded at 50% less than their price. For instance, a punk with 80 rarity can be sold with 40 HIVE.
- during the last bull run, which is still cooling down, price went down on a few items drastically, which means people wanted to cash in
It looks like the market organized in a few layers:
- under 100 rarity, price is usually less than rarity, sometimes by 50-60%, very liquid, many sales
- between 100 and 200, price is usually rarity, somehow liquid, definitely less sales than in the layer above
- between 200 and 400 price can swing either way, sometimes double or triple the rarity, not liquid (not too many sales, but reward significantly higher)
- between 400 and 1000, price is even more random, again not very liquid, but we're talking deals between $1k and $2-$4k
- over 1000 is the dreamland, if you have one of those, I would keep it, because it seems they are in high demand, and they may appreciate. We're talking deals over $10k.
Here is my strategy (yes, I'm putting on market some of my punks):
| Punk | Rarity | Price |
|---|---|---|
 | 96 | 100 |
 | 97 | 100 |
 | 103 | 103 |
 | 104 | 104 |
 | 107 | 107 |
 | 109 | 109 |
 | 112 | 112 |
 | 114 | 114 |
 | 116 | 116 |
 | 118 | 118 |
 | 131 | 131 |
 | 161 | 161 |
 | 189 | 189 |
 | 197 | 197 |
 | 197 | 197 |
 | 216 | 600 |
 | 225 | 600 |
 | 251 | 600 |
 | 478 | not listed |
 | 491 | not listed |
 | 878 | not listed |
In short:
- any rarity under 100 is treated as 100
- above 200 and below 400 I'm betting on a 300% price increase. I just believe that layer will be the most liquid and interesting in a few months, just a hunch.
- I'm not putting any of the punks over 400 on sale just yet.
So far I didn't make any sale - and it's very possible not to make one, as I know the strategy is skewed towards expensive. I'll just keep it for a while.
I just put everything here so I can have where to come back and see how it all went.
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nice. this is a handy little insight in to the pricing. thanks
If you're interested, we have a Discord community: Punk Legends where we hold Punk giveaways and curate comments, so anyone can be rewarded without having to be a content creator.
thanks Ive joined : )
I enjoyed reading your point of view.
Have you ever thought about trading punks or are you too attached to them?
Almost all my punks are trading now. Except the ones marked "not listed yet", all are on the market.
When I said, "trade," what I meant was barter or swap, one of your punks for a punk that someone else owns, but you like better. So, would you ever want to swap punks?
And if so, here is a link to all of my Punks: https://inji.com/hive/@gonzo/nfts
Last week, I started a Discord Community: Punk Legends, you should stop by to meet other Punks; we also offer curation for user engagement: like commenting.
Ok, so I didn't understand that you want to swap. For now, I'll stay on my hands on this one, I will just list them on the market. But it sounds like a nice initiative, good luck with it.
What are actually punks? Are they belong to NFTS?
Yes, Punks on Hive are NFTs/
If you're interested, we have a Discord community: Punk Legends where we talk about NFTs; hold Punk giveaways and curate comments, so anyone can be rewarded without having to be a content creator.
You're welcome to join us.
Thanks for the invitation and will join for sure.
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