The Case For A $8 HIVE

in LeoFinance18 days ago (edited)

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We're finally entering the supply squeeze phase which was suggested by the massive impact of Splinterlands. There were signs across the board for that: the number of new accounts created, and HIVE massively leaving exchanges being the most important. There were also smaller indicators, mostly related to price / volume actions which started to show more correlation, and leave the choppy pattern we've seen until a month or two ago.

Time for a little exercise of imagination. If this sounds very far fetched, then remember the biggest outlier is not what we don't know, but what we don't know that we don't know.

So, the highest value of a token on this blockchain was reached in January 3, 2018, and it was $8.19. More than 3 years ago, almost 4 years. Since that ATH, a lot happened. HIVE forked form that codebase and community and it is now a separate blockchain. A lot of development happened over the course of just a little over one year and we're yet to see the actual impact of it.

How High Can It Go?

So far gaming and podcasting (audio / video web3) seem to lead the way in terms of activity. A lot of new accounts are created specifically for that. And I mean, A LOT. More than 10k accounts per day, which used to be, not until long ago, the number of accounts active across the entire blockchain on a month.

In my humble opinion, it won't be long until these accounts will realize there is a lot more you can do on the same blockchain they joined for a game, and we will see a massive migration towards the social media component.

Social media has this tendency to become viral. It may have a lower affinity than gaming, but it does have a significantly larger reach. In layman terms, convinced gamers are extremely engaged, but they are fewer than social media commenters, which may ride the wave of some trends, every now and then, with a lower engagement, but over a larger time span.

This means the dynamic of social media is different than gaming. It's not as explosive, and it walks along the path of crypto adoption: slowly, then suddenly. It's like what happened to Bitcoin, which struggled for years, back and forth between regulation, China banning, with a little progress now and then in some jurisdictions, until: BOOM! It just became legal tender in a real country. We're less than a week until this will roll out in El Salvador, but it seems there's no way back at this point. It will happen.

Now, imagine the same impact, at the HIVE blockchain. And try to do a little bit of a correlation with the last ATH.

So, a $8 HIVE would definitely be a plausible price level, even if, at this moment, it seems extremely far fetched, more than 10x up from where we are now.

I do see it happening slowly, then suddenly.

Of course, this is not financial advice, DYOR and never invest more than you can lose.

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Can Splinterlands keep creating this many accounts? Will they run out of RCs? It is an exciting time with all these people coming on board, but it needs to be made obvious to them that there are other things to do on Hive, but that name is barely mentioned on their site. It just tends to talk about 'blockchain'. We need more brand awareness.

Still, it gives me some hope. Some people will realise they can do more.

Slight typo with 'hight' in sub-heading, should be 'high'.

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Thanks for the heads up on the typo, I stand corrected. Yes, if you look at @penguinpablo stats you will see very clearly how many new accounts are created and the correlation with Splinterlands.

There is a lot of awareness right now, those accounts are starting to interact in many other ways with the platform.

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After reading the post I can say that you're a bit modest with that $8 HIVE price target. I didn't know there are so many new accounts created on a daily basis. That's massive.

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Indeed, it's massive. Try following up the stats made by @penguinpablo, in the last two days there more than 12k accounts / day created.

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I believe, a sizeable percentage of these accounts being registered for splinterlands will explore the other aspects of the blockchain, I guess for now, everyone just wants to secure a standing. It's massive how hive has steadily done well in almost every aspect in 5 months. It's time to actually accumulate, it'll be difficult very soon.

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Newcomers are actively being encouraged to use Hive to sell their Splinterlands cards and currency on Reddit for example. It makes sense since every other option has transaction fees, Hive doesn't.

So yes, Splinterlands is certainly making Hive known, even though it's not actively promoting it on the website.

Well I am not so sure about that but the higher ranked search results tends to push people towards PeakD, splintertalk and LeoFinance. However some people will just continue to play as normal.

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Well, thats another angle I didn't look at, leo ranks really well. Im suprised by stem though

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I agree about the supply squeeze phase, but think it's going to experience some extreme volatility around $1.

Lol if things hadn't be volatile this whole time eh

Yeah, IMHO $1 is more of a psychological level. Lots of things changed, especially with the hardfork, the "other" chain impact and dance with the price is something that we didn't have before and it may have both upwards and downwards consequences. Volatility is, also, both good and bad.

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If you made this post 6 weeks ago, most would have laughed and the comments would be filled with how insane you were.

Now, with all that is taking place with @splinterlands, people are starting to see what many of us talked about for the past few years.

Great post.

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Thanks, and yes, 6 weeks ago this would have been out of context for many. But I'm here since October 2016 and I've seen things. I know how high this thing can jump. The springboard seems to be reaching the maximum compression level, it should explode upwards soon.

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You're exactly right, I came in during the 2018 pump and have been bullish ever since!

In my humble opinion, it won't be long until these accounts will realize there is a lot more you can do on the same blockchain they joined for a game, and we will see a massive migration towards the social media component.

I think this is the key ingredient for organic growth on HIVE and we see this already happening. People that came here for Splinterlands expanded into different communities and are hungry to get involved there and earn more second layer tokens and HIVE. The crypto gold rush is here and I think we will see an expansion like never before, so my bullish price point for HIVE would be somewhere at $10. And not just ATH and to drop off, but to HODL on there and consolidate.

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$63 is only 100x from here


Posted via proofofbrain.io

This, sir, is a correct statement. Its plausibility, though, may still have to wait a little. Not saying it's impossible, though, merely that it's just a bit too early for that level.

Something is definitely different this time around. The "pump" that we're starting to experience has way more fundamentals behind it. There are actual reasons we can see and measure, rather than just one exchange in Korea going crazy.

There is a TON of financial energy percolating beneath the surface with Splinterlands, CUB/LEO, and even a couple of other games starting to build a little momentum. Not to mention 3Spk, HAF, and eventually ProjectBlank all coming (hopefully) by year's end. It's about to get crazy around here....

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Cheers to the craziness, it was about time...

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@dragosroua,
Yes HIVE will break that ATH. I am looking for that too!

Cheers~

I think we need more than just Splinterlands but the push in accounts and activity is definitely bullish. After all I expect some of the hype to die down once another play to earn game gets pushed up. I do hope its another one of the HIVE games though.

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Bottom line is to keep holding as much as we can while we continue to take advantage of development initiatives on offer like what the Leofinance team have been doing with CUB

Thinking about such numbers gets me excited most times but I don't like to get my hopes up. Hive at $8? If this happens I will be able to do some measure things for myself, like completing my building. Wow! Fingers crossed.

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Cheers to that!

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Hive has taught me how to be patient and accumulate wealth gradually. I see people regretting they didn’t invest in Ada and Solana when it was cheaper forgetting that hive can do same and better. All you need is patience and keep powering up, you won’t regret it.

Can only imagine how it will be over here when hive price gets to eight dollars.i believe this will happen but it's just a matter of time. Splinterlands seem to be helping a whole lot in increasing the number of sign up. Hope those users see the benefit of this blockchain far beyond just gaming


Posted via proofofbrain.io

A HIVE at $8 seems like a starting price, I would say that by next year it will reach the $20 price point.

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Splinterlands seems to put this target on the map again.

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Considering they print dollars like it’s going out of fashion I don’t see dollar value as success, unless it’s increasing in satoshi value or gold ounces then it’s actually losing purchasing power as those are the two of the lowest inflation units of measurement

Correct. At this moment, HIVE sits at around 1k satoshis. To reach $8, it would mean something like 15k satoshis, if I'm not wrong. Still doable.

I don't know whats happening in HIVE... coz I take it for granted, its a platform I have been writting good on and earning something. While I been focus on those big coins - BTC< ETH, DOT, ATOM, MAtic...

but I am hearing about this supply squeeze theory because of splinterlands...

quite interesting. I was not there much in the space when last time years ago bull run brought price of steem to 8$, but now I am there in the space, in the platform that I am quite engaged in.

Quite cool that.

And again in HIVE my investments are my work, not put much money into it, but I am here since Oct 2018 or 2019...and took my time to build my niche...somewhat like what your detailing happened to BTC and will happen to HIVE and them me too as a HIVE user.

NIce...good day!!

$8 USD Hive? Most people will probably sell most of it around $5 USD.

When it went to 8usd I remember thinking that 5usd was about the extent of the influence to cost ratio.
Not enough influence for the cost.
I will definitely be selling some over 5usd.

The fundamentals backing up this pump back past $5 will come with more influence though, right?

Higher price, less payout in hive.
With 5usd hive, a 5htu payout post gets you 1 hive.
With .5usd hive a 5htu payout post gets you 10 hive.

I think the defi and gaming aspects will pull the pool along where the pool by itself couldn't go.

🤔 interesting...

I suspect that to be a resistance level for, but believe we will fiddle about around that price for a cycle then boom!


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Its been fun watching things unfold over the years, I'm excited to see as things unfold going forward, it's all like a Television Series 😀.

Nice analysis, of course we can see 8 again, Its all a matter of time. I also agree with your talk about gamers and other non-social media sign-ups turning towards the social media aspect slowly. The future seems really bright.


Posted via proofofbrain.io

I love being here to see this happen. The supply squeeze is definitely real.


Posted via proofofbrain.io

$8 Hive will change the course of action for many.
More pressure on Hive price will push more folks
to hold Hive.
Everybody wins.
!BEER

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

I believe it will happen quicker than most believe.

!BBH

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The current time is indicating everything going to be happened next future. Just a month back this thinking was impossible to think by many but now its clear that can happen similarly to other gaming social media. Thanks

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