Prices are going up.
Supply chain is still totally wrecked.
Federal Reserve is wrongfully increasing interest rates.
The chickens are coming home to roost.
Don't shit where you eat.
There's a lot to be said for everything going on in the world today, but I think it should be obvious by now that the silly "V-shaped recovery" we got in 2020 was simply delaying the inevitable. The world economy will go into recession sooner or later just like it did in 2008, and most people are going to get wrecked because most people have zero savings and a negative net worth.
Price of gas
The price of gas has almost nothing to do with Federal Reserve policy and everything to do with supply and demand and the overall health of the economy. America, being a beacon for the war machine, the Petrodollar, and the world reserve currency, has always enjoyed dirt cheap gas prices while other countries pay up to twice as much for petrol.
$7 a gallon is not a lot, yet everything is relative and people who are used to paying $3.5 will complain that this is a cost of doubled even though citizens in Europe have been paying that price for over a decade. Ironic how liberals are willing to pay more for gas to engage in economic warfare when ten years ago they wanted to pay more for gas to avoid the whole blood for oil scenario. I guess there's a big difference between the Russian boogieman getting amplified by the propaganda machine than middle-eastern countries that most wouldn't even be able to locate on a world map without labels.
It's interesting how people forget to question the legitimacy of a particular government when they come under attack by an enemy. It's not like the Ukrainian government is any good. Like the vast majority of governments (if not all) it does not serve the people that it lords over, and instead opts to play the game of intrigue and power. There are very good reasons why everything has gone down the way it has, and dumbing it down to "Russia bad!" is super toolish. The propaganda machine does not want informed citizens; that is a fact.
Also I've been saying that Biden couldn't win reelection before all this crazy shit went down. These sanctions against Russia really seal the deal. People only voted for Biden because they wanted to get Trump out of there (and even then you must ignore all the allegations of cheating). By the time reelection rolls around there's no way his approval ratings are going to be anywhere near what they'd need to be to win a second term. The volatility will continue on in all aspects.
The stacking sunburn.
The economy keeps getting scorched, and a negative feedback loop is feeding into itself. It's really only a matter of time before it all crashes into the mountain. Obviously I'm betting on crypto having a nice bull run in 3 months, so it would be nice if we put this off until the end of the year so that I would personally have time to turn properly bearish on the market. Considering we've been riding on this slow motion train-wreck for over two years and it still hasn't derailed yet, I'd say there's a good chance more and more delays creep in there. Soon™
Preparing for an actual bear market
There hasn't been a bear market since 2008, and before that 2000. We have yet to see how Bitcoin operates in a bear market, so this is actually an exciting thing to look forward to. My expectation is that Bitcoin will crash to the doubling curve and grind there during accumulation just like it always does. If stocks are bleeding while Bitcoin is grinding forward, that's a huge win for Bitcoin and crypto in general. That will get the attention of everyone, and the store-of-value proposition will come back in full force.
When I look at my expenses I can see that I have pretty much nothing to worry about. The price of all supply-shock products could triple and I'd still be totally fine. Such privilege. I don't have kids, and even if I lost all my crypto in a boating accident my girlfriend has a high-paying job in a construction manufacturing plant that actually gets more business during recessions than not (as clients come to this particular company looking to cut costs).
Oh yeah and funny story:
I was telling my girlfriend to buy Bitcoin constantly in 2018 and 2019 but it was too risky for her, but one day her financial advisor calls her up and says, "Yeah I really want to diversify 1% of your portfolio into crypto." Only because she was getting it from both sides did she finally agree to the 1%. Then later I come to find that the 1% got increased to 3%, and the 3% then got increased to 5%.. lol
My girlfriend aggressively saves all her money. On paper it looks like she lives paycheck to paycheck, but that's because she's throwing like half of her money into these investments and retirement accounts because her dad is terrible with money and she's convinced she will be stuck with the bill when it comes to his retirement.
And all of this happened before November 2020 when Bitcoin spiked x4 to $40k... Basically all this money she'd been saving for over a decade... 5% of it got put into crypto at $10k BTC or below... which is obviously insane. She could have more crypto than I do and neither of us would know. She hasn't looked at that account for years because it's "too stressful" and "that's what I pay my financial advisor for" yada yada yada. I expect when she does, that 5% she put into crypto will have ballooned to 25%-50% of her entire portfolio. It's gonna be weird if she has more crypto than me. Facts.
So obviously I personally have nothing to worry about.
I spend $800 a month. If that needed to double to $1600 this would only be an annoyance, not the devastating crippling blow to others who have literally zero buffer or emergency money. Those who lose their jobs are going to be destitute. Still, I haven't even come close to getting to the actual point that this post was supposed to be about.
Right... Food vs Gas
What I actually wanted to talk about are the stark differences between certain assets going up in price when compared to others. The price of food going up has a much different outcome than pretty much every other asset, because food is the one thing that people can actually create.
When gas goes up, we have two options: use less gas or eat the cost. Most have to eat the cost because tons of driving is simply commuter traffic. No one can make their own gasoline no matter how high the price spikes. Food is a different story.
Cost of chickens
This is something I actually have personal experience with.
My ex and I ended up taking five chickens from a friend who could no longer take care of them (moving to a new place). I probably overfed them a bit because we treated them more like pets than products, and the feed was a bit more expensive and higher quality than normal. I did the math and after dividing the cost of feed by the number of eggs per month it ended up around 50 cents per egg.
Now obviously 50 cents per egg is like... a lot. Anyone can easily go to the store and pay 25 cents per egg from a factory farm. Not only could you pay half as much but also you don't have to take care of chickens, which isn't a ton or work but it's definitely not nothing.
And then there is something to be said of the quality. Obviously the eggs I was harvesting in my own backyard were way higher quality than one from a factory farm, and you could tell just by looking at them. "Organic" egg is organic. The chickens I raised had a better life than 99.99% of all other chickens on the planet. That is a fact, and I wasn't even trying very hard.
Two more things
Chicken shit does not have a value of zero. I would buy these bails of hay/straw and use them as bedding to make their waste much easier to clean up (and just all around cleaner habitat in general). Every day I'd throw down a layer to keep everything dry and clean. When the stack got too high I'd shovel it out of there and throw it into the compost bin.
What I didn't realize is that chickens naturally create a ton of compost. And it's not like regular compost that you'd buy at the store. It's like super compost that's 10 times better than stuff you can buy at the store. I did a little science experiment to compare the two, and plants that I grew with my own compost grew three times bigger and faster than the stuff I bought from the store. Pretty crazy honestly.
And chickens themselves are always scratching and pecking the ground looking for bugs and things to eat, so they basically turn over and mix up compost for you. In fact whenever I'd turn the pile over myself with a pitchfork they beeline run over to it to make sure they got all the bugs that were hiding at the bottom. Such weird dumb hilarious farm animals, chickens. I mean also you can obviously eat them as well but I'm not about to butcher animals on my makeshift farm. No thanks.
And secondly
If I had more land (or if I had been willing to let them rampage the entire backyard instead of just the gated area) the cost of food for them would have been greatly reduced. Hell, I probably could have been feeding them half as much anyway. They were huge and always made a lot of noise when they were begging and I fed them because you're supposed to have a city permit if you have more than 3. With enough land a farm can host a small number chickens at zero cost.
Getting to the point
The point here is that food doubling or tripling in price is actually a good thing. If the price of eggs spikes to $7 a dozen, all of a sudden it becomes profitable for everyone to own chickens if they can accommodate them. We are approaching an era where centralization and efficiency have reached maximum diminishing returns. The transition to decentralization and quality products is going to be a painful one, but suffering is often necessary for evolution to occur. The environment is changing, and we must change with it and become sustainable, or continue trusting centralized sources to our own detriment.
This clearly applies to many other things as well like greenhouses, sustainable energy production, decentralized mesh networked internet, and obviously money itself in the form of cryptocurrency. Crypto has already proven it's value even though it's a highly efficient and largely ridiculous system. That just goes to show us how bad our trust issues with authority have gotten. Soon it will be worth it to make our own products rather than assuming a centralized supply line will remain intact. All we need to do is keep building out the infrastructure and these things will become much more apparent as time goes on.
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This is not true. Search 'wood gas' and WWII, and you will discover how many in Europe kept their mobility despite petroleum being unavailable.
I grasp that would impel people to adopt rational decentralization in droves, which is necessary and good, but I caution you to be more cynical. We are not facing inflation alone, but famine. Backyard chickens are being seized and killed, with the justification of bird flu pandemic. I've even seen the saving of seed and gardening being attacked as 'unsafe'. Despite acknowledging that food shortages will shortly strike, the USG is taking more arable land out of production for conservation.
Rabbits do not produce eggs, but are silent. It may be necessary to have covert sources of food. Please follow IceAgeFarmer for well cited reports on the developing deliberate famine and consider rabbits, tilapia, and similar silent and potentially covert food sources you can personally secure. With the water from fish tanks you can hydroponically grow greens under LED strip lights, if need be.
Hope for the best and prepare for the worst, my friend.
Thanks!
I can't believe I made it to the end... I also wish I'd read this before bed time.
Two comments:
a) it was about time some American realized you guys are paying less for gasoline than we Europeans do and you've had even better times. V8s make a lot of sense over there...
b) really curious to see how BTC will hold the doubling curve in the next year or so.
c)... I know I said two comments, but these chickens reminded me to buy some eggs from the market tomorrow. I ate too much "stressed chicken eggs" lately
Shaky water ahead. I'm more worried about the Orwellian state that's unfolding before us than the recession.
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Some Americans have always understood Europe is under occupation by the US through NATO. Today some of us understand that the West is under occupation by banksters, represented by the WEF, led by Larry Fink of BlackRock. Many Western governments, ostensibly democracies, have been infiltrated by WEF minions and corporate staffing agencies. Literal psychopaths are using such minions to derange our national policies, and this will shortly become existentially hazardous to our good people.
Please play a little game, pretending food was only available through the black market or by your own hand, and consider how to secure it in such circumstances.
Survive and thrive.
Well said.
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Great Comment
Where do you live if you don't mind me asking? $800 a month to survive is pretty awesome. It's multiples of that in Canada. The wages might be higher but inflation is rapidly increasing while wages are barely moving.
I would suggest that low interest rates are partly what has led us to where we are now and are not a good thing for anyone but the rich that already own assets that are inflating in value. Savers no longer can get any return on their deposits.
It's not a coincidence that when governments locked down and printed up trillions in fiat that suddenly we have rapidly rising inflation. Supply chains are also being deliberately crippled to contribute to the "great reset" plan of the global elites.
Most people will be late to the party but will have to switch over to crypto currencies as the fiat currencies continue to lose value. I've come to the conclusion that there won't be another bear market in stocks or traditional markets. They will continue to move up in number value as that fiat value becomes more worthless. Some will figure it out and others will lose badly as their purchasing power disappears.
Please objectively consider recent seizures of capital by Canada. I have been stocking up on trade goods, like lighters, ammo, matches, whiskey, silver, and non-perishable food. I also have caches on public land, well concealed, because my door can be kicked down at 2 am and my 'hoard' seized, not just my bank accounts.
CBDCs are coming, and hard assets have to be manually seized to deprive us of them. Russia today shows that for substantial purchasing power, physical gold can secure assets.
I'm well aware and it's shocking how fast conditions can change; bank accounts were frozen when all people did was send small donations to protesters to support them so they could buy food and gas. This happened virtually overnight with no basis in our constitution or law. People were arrested on trumped up mischief charges and held without bail. Why? Because the government felt like it. Some are still being held in jail.
Democracy is an illusion here. We are being stripped of our basic human rights and many people are asleep, busy or don't even seem to notice or care. We are going full speed into the globalist agenda and they will trample on anyone literally if you get in the way.
We had shortages of some supplies like toilet paper at points of the covid hysteria. Those that had supplies were labelled as selfish hoarders for having enough forethought to bother buying items they would need in the future and not be desperately out of basic supplies.
Good for you for being aware enough to set up those caches. You will be a lot safer than most people as conditions get worse. It looks like if they force CBDC's they are just going to create a barter black market economy.
I don’t have personal experience, but for what it’s worth, I’ve seen posts and YT vids extolling the benefits of quail as opposed to chickens. Sure, the eggs are smaller, but they start producing earlier than chickens, produce longer in their life cycle than chickens, and are much quieter than chickens. One of these days when crypto moons I’ll finally buy that hobby farm I’ve wanted…
Quail are very easy to keep, and the eggs are tastier than chickens IMHO. Great suggestion!
Dear @edicted
You have illustrated very well our distrust of authority and resulting in everyone depending on their system constantly.
From my point of view, everyone is made to always be in a cycle of dependence on the production of big financiers who suck the blood of their neighbors. Unfortunately it took place openly and continuously.
Instead of us being able to be independent to meet our own needs, we are pushed deeper into the valley where they forage for food that is mixed with their own feces, dirty and very disgusting.
I apologize for mixing up the words "eat with a poop" as well.
You also have to factor in the cost of a decent pen with Chickens, preferably concrete base - foxes do tend to like to eat them.
They really are one of the greatest things you can buy IMO - efficiency wise, you can even put a greenhouse next to their coop and it helps keep the plants (slightly) warmer at night).
And then there's chicken tractors of course.... so much digging saved! And auto-manuring at the same time.
It's almost like eggs and meat are a bouns.
Do you think feed prices are going up too? I am paying 25 USD per 40lb bag of organic chicken feed now.
Consider that some producers are already butchering their flocks and herds because feed is not available. Feed may become necessary to produce on your own.
Were trying to learn new things. There is much to learn about real life. Sadly I spent most of my life building luxuries for others. Now I can do them for myself but I also must learn the true skills that life requires for actual survival.
So you're back on haha?
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That last one had zero staying power.
I much have 'won' like... really hard.
Overkill even.
It's true but we have one life. This suffering process takes a long time because only very rich men/women continue to win. Poor still poor.
Very interesting thoughts! I wish I had your cost basis to spend under $1k per month but just my rent is close to 2x that… and I need to have some expenses.
Maybe I should move out of big city but how do you get the good jobs then…
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I kind of what a few chickens. I think it would be fun to learn to take of them. But I have a neighbor I told about this and he said he hates chickens and he'd shoot them through the fence. Kind of freaks me out. Also, I have snakes and birds of prey around. I would think they could get at the chickens
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Chickens are Dinosaurs my chickens eat snakes.
Dude yes this is exactly what I was going to say.
The five I had were fucking grizzled and they always were willing to throw down as a team.
They only seem to be afraid of things that come from the sky. I have had a few American Kestrels attack two of my ladies. Had to put them down after the attack. Heart breaking for us. We treat our ladies well.
Even after a long and happy life they are great as soup chickens and you can boil their carcasses many times to produce really great chicken broth and then bone broth.
hmm, good to know. I really want a couple. My friend has a few and I've had the eggs. Fresh eggs are sooooo good.
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I wanted to say if you have children the ladies will be nice to them if they know them.
Roosters on the other hand. I went through 5 before I understood how to raise one for family life.
They must be handled daily. Even after they are hard to catch.
AS well the hens need a rooster. When we culled the first rooster our hens started humping each other. It stopped when we got another rooster.
Dont be fooled by our world systems. There is only prey and predators in our world. Chickens are mostly predators.
I once gazed into the eyes of a seemingly harmless hen for a minute or two. I have never been so chilled to my bones at the merciless predatory soul of another vertebrate as I saw there. You speak true to call them dinosaurs. I have visited an organic egg producer that feeds his flocks whole cattle, mostly dead bull calves useless to the dairymen hereabouts.
City folk would be well served to see that operation, and the spectacle of chickens stripping cows to the bone like piranhas provides edifying perspective. Daily handling is wise IMHO.
Also, don't fall down in a pig pen. Pigs can't digest teeth, but that's all that would come out undigested after they ate you. An 800 pound boar can savor a human head like we do a cherry tomato.
Real life is stranger than fiction. That is not a false conscript. Or is it?
Yikes! I might just keep buying eggs lol
I am unable to have chickens where I live. However, I donated a half dozen layers to a local who does keep chickens with the caveat that I may want some eggs from time to time in the future. I also reached out last week to a local commercial egg producer about the coming purges of commercial flocks, with an eye to consulting to secure some of his flocks at least from such genocide. Dairy is also of inestimable value, and I have created similar relationships with local ranchers who assure me they will not let their neighbors starve while they have dairy cows.
Even if you can't yourself have flocks and herds, you can find ways to share in the bounty where folks can. Be good and useful to good folks, and goodness and mercy will follow you, all the days of your life.
yeah just like iamstan said my chickens were grizzled as hell and neighborhood cats were afraid of them.
Thank goodness I am not the only one who sees chickens as pets. Plus they are the cutest.
As regards the cost of gas, my goodness!
I have a restaurant that caught fire a few days ago and I am trying to shoulder the expense this has caused.
As if that is not bad enough, the price of diesel is flying over the roof. Sigh!
We may be in different countries but we are facing similar issues in this regard. Times are insane.
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We name our chickens names like Pinto Bean, Strawberry, Cheeseburger.
Interesting😅😅😅😅😅
Diesel was $3.29 usd 4 months ago. Now its $4.79 usd
The great reset plans for us to own nothing and be happy.
I plan to fight that! I will be ready when they arrive to come take my things. I will build a gassifier to run my equipment.
That's crazy ohhh...
The things we are going through this period is just insane!
Been reading about this for years, I need to build one. For now I am implementing firewood cultivation by lots.
Hahaha yeah, middle-eastern countries don't count and are way harder to find on a world map without labels. And yes, take care of your pet chickens and maximise their shit from the bails of hay/straw that you use to pamper and overfed them with that high quality food that 99.99% of all other chickens on the planet have not had. Who knows? maybe you will become into the next guano tycoon in the next few years. :D
triggered
Then go for it brother! perhaps in just a couple of years you could send me a dozen of those extra nutritious eggs from your chicken pets of around $7 or $21 a dozen to thank me for my novelty idea that you become a guano mogul. I really don't care how much they could cost in two years. ;o)
lol sorry I should of been more specific:
Am I really supposed to react to some passive aggressive comment that completely avoids the real issue and puts words in my mouth that were never there?
Do better.
Hahahaha ¡Wadda MoFo!
You already got enough people babbling crap about the "real issue" here. I addressed what really matters for your future well-being. The real substance that can be extracted from your post that everyone else has missed.
Yeah! it's an evident fact that you are actually blind to humor or completely and blatantly missed the emojis at the end of each one of my previous comments. LoL :p
yeah you're not tilted at all
you're always like this
oh... wait...
May we need some captions here? :D
Why did the Chickens Cross the road?
To go live with Edicted haha
Now, everyone should buy chicken coops and sacks of bird feeds..
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man, you are the coolest man on Hive. Didn't know that you are actually a real farmer. lol
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The adversity they say, 'Is the mother of invention' that's where we find ourselves, and it's turning out for the better good practical experience.
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Very interesting post, as always!
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Fertilizer prices are up so I think you could have made a bit of profit off the compost you were getting. I was a bit surprised to see you losing out on the egg but did the egg taste better than the ones you got from a store?
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