Not sure how many times I need to post this:
April 1 April 1 April 1
I keep saying April 1st is one of the best days to buy BTC. The price dumps right before April 1st and people are surprised? Stop living moment to moment on this financial roller coaster. Get a grip, FAM.
woonomic Tweet:
Exactly...
Think about all the corporate entities that bought into Bitcoin at the $10k-$20k levels. Wouldn't it be nice for those boys to show the world how smart they were by taking gainz right before the end of the quarter? Quarterly reports are a thing, guys.
Q1 is always a garbage quarter, and Bitcoin has essentially gone x5 over the last 6 months. That's a pretty good return, eh? Better lock in those gainz! Think about how many new users with deep pockets have entered the market lately. Think about what kind of responsibilities those people have: on a professional level and otherwise.
Most people have a very micro view of economics. Number go down, people panic. Many only see what's right in front of their faces. To be fair, trying to parse the tea-leaves of the global economy is a fool's errand. There are so many variables at play no one will ever guess right.
Still, it's worth a shot to at least try to figure this stuff out and make some generalizations to guide these decisions we have to make. If Q1 is a bad quarter in general, and Bitcoin went from $30k to $50k during that time period, we can probably assume that Q2 is going to be even better.
It doesn't really matter what we think about The Pandemic or these vaccinations or the lockdowns or the New Normal or the Great Reset. People have gone stir-crazy over the last year, and this summer may be the first time a lot of people feel like they get to take a break from the bullshit. A lot of emotionally charged money is going to be trading hands over the next 3-6 months.
If we look back to the 2017 bull run, x3 gains were made in the three weeks leading up to December 6th. This is how these things happen. FOMO kicks in and the vast majority of market cap gains are made right at the end before the blow-off top.
So where do I think Bitcoin will be at the end of the year?
x10 to x15 the doubling curve.
Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | $200 | $400 | $800 | $1600 |
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3200 | $6400 | $12800 | $25600 | $51200 |
By my count Bitcoin's baseline value will only be $25.6k at the end of the year, but it will be trading at $256k - $384k. Again, considering this is one of the strongest-looking bull runs of all time, I lean towards the $400k unit-bias level being the ultimate resistance for Bitcoin at the end of the year.
So where does that put us in Q2?
I've been thinking we trade in the $100k-$120k range for a while now. A local peak often comes in June with sideways trading in July and August that often yield insane alt-markets.
Interestingly enough, if the price of BTC is around that $100k-$120k level come Q4, that x3 FOMO right at the end brings us right back into a pocket that we'd expect given the other information we've been presented ($300k-$360k).
All roads lead to Rome.
So when I see people crying about a "crash" to $50k it's simultaneously infuriating and sad at the same time. You're either that greedy or that crushed by the current economic system that you live day by day on this volatile roller coaster. Take a break, friends. If x5 gains in 6 months isn't good enough: reevaluate your position.
The only real threats I see here are selling too early due to constant panicking or FOMOing way too late after the ship has already sailed.
Dat corporate FOMO
Most of the major tech companies haven't even bought in yet. Honestly I'd be surprised if they even did by the end of the year but we'll see. This FOMO is going to strike at everyone this time around.
I was thinking corporations and tech CEOs would be stronger hands than retail, but with these kinds of gains on the table everyone is gonna go a little crazy.
Bear market
This idea that the next bear market won't be as bad as the last one because corporations are going to foot the bill is pretty ridiculous. Corporations know how to short the market just as well as anyone else (better even). It's silly to think that they'll just keep buying as the market bleeds out. Lot's of people gonna get fired in 2022 for gambling their asses off. Bitcoin has that affect on people; doesn't matter who you are. Especially if you've just entered the market and have no actual experience with it.
Just look at Dave Portnoy
LOL... panic sold at $11k? Idiot.
That's going to happen again and again in these markets, because volatility is fucking terrifying. Doesn't matter who the person is: the market knows how to get inside their heads and make them do stupid shit.
Take CUB for example. I had a pretty good idea it would crash to $2 on Wednesday. I had the price and the exact date correct, and I STILL FOMOED in a day early... lol. How did this happen? Crypto gonna get ya!
Conclusion
It is vital that we continue to remain vigilant and attempt to distance our emotions from these violent day to day movements of the market. I'm always trying to rebalance from the short to medium term and beyond.
At the end of the day Q1 is normally a garbage quarter and we still had legendary gains. No one seems to care. Greed is infinite.
Q2 should be a very interesting time for the markets. We are on the brink of reopening a stir-crazy economy. Money is sure to fly around like mad in the face of "freedom" and infinite money printing.
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I think the fact that I am so heavily positioned for a big bull run in cryptos is precisely the reason that it won't happen :-P
Haha, I feel you!
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I know what you mean. Even with all the evidence and bullish action out there it's hard to believe it could just happen again so easily.
I just figured it out!
You just have to bet against me again and lose more Hive :D
$200k Bitcoin by December 31, 2021
You're on! Name your terms...
you must have seen before I edited... although I didn't say the bet amount.
$200k Bitcoin by December 31, 2021
100 Hive.
It's a bet!
lol.
Aren't you getting tired of saying "I told you so"
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Actually yeah it's way funnier to be wrong 100% of the time.
Lots of predictions all see a Q4 peak but some are calling for it very early in Q4 and others are calling for it late in the quarter. What’s your crystal ball saying?
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All I know is that I'll be very nervous once BTC gets x10 above the curve.
If BTC gets to $200k in June I'd be issuing serious warnings.
A lot of the macro timelines add up to a peak in October, but the yearly cycles of money clearly dictate that velocity is highest near Christmas and the end of the fiscal year: for obvious reasons.
I'd be surprised if we didn't peak in December or January.
But now that you mention it... the best outcome would be a peak in October followed by months of sideways action for the best alt-market ever. Also a possibility considering how money flows in Q4.
My crystal ball says crazy Halloween parties and crazier Posadas.
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Well at least one of us is taking your advice. I’m still mindful with the amounts but the percentages look great.
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Gold, you've said it all there. That explains A LOT about the ongoing correction. Which is healthy.
I also believe things will start to get crazy around the beginning of Q3 2021 for similar reasons.
Looks like 2021 is going to be a year to remember for the crypto space.
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I feel incredibly well positioned and I have not even 1/10th of what your bags are showing. Still, I know I will be good, very good. I try to be calm, to stay focused. Just a bit of impatience in the face of the upcoming hurricane. Time flows differently these days. The storm has been a long time coming and now it has touched the coastline but is not quite there yet. Can you feel the wind on your skin already?
Yeah right at the end of a mega-run 100% of alts outperform BTC :D
Should be a wild ride.
Sadly in the world today people are worried about making a quick buck and do not look to the future. I doubt anyone would see gains like this with traditional stocks and bonds.
I socked what little BTC I had in HIVE. Hindsight is 20/20, but not too concerned about it. The BTC was given to me for free a year or so ago. I did something good with it.
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People get desperate on the way down, no matter how high they climbed.
I don't tihnk they are going to foot the bill, but I do think that there ae more options than 2017 to stay in crypto and keep it ticking over through the pools. If Tesla aren't going to convert it to fiat, it means that they are either going to need gateways with their suppliers to spend it or, are prepared to sit on it - why sit when it can sit and earn?
Because the earnings will be shit when the underlying assets tank extremely hard.
By the way, I believe right now may by the first time when buying CUB makes any sense. The high inflation caused the crash in price. What it did was turn part of the value in one's initial investment into a stream of taxable income as an insult to injury, so I don't think anyone recouped what they lost if they held instead of dumping it.
CUB could still go down particularly if there is any considerable delay in the shipping of the Bridge or if users do not discover it in large enough numbers. (The latter we can help by advertising the shit out of it when it is released.)
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If anything I would just expect a higher peak with a higher bottom.
Nothing suggests this market is going to be much less volatile than before.
I suppose one can hope.
As far as Tesla is concerned: announcing you won't immediately transfer Bitcoin to fiat doesn't mean you aren't spending the Bitcoin. Operating costs are high. Seems like more of a marketing gimmick and shilling your own investments than anything else.
There will be volatility - but I also think that it is more likely that people will move to stables and then move back into BTC earlier than expected, bleeding less outside of the ecosystem.
To spend it, they will need to have some places to spend it - new gateways. I don't expect them to get a lot of BTC sales anyway :)
True... will be interesting though if 1 BTC is trading for a quarter mill.
I could also see them just selling huge chunks of BTC over the counter directly to other corporations so liquidity isn't an issue. I could also see them using the BTC as collateral for a loan somewhere else. There are a lot of possibilities I suppose.
Wait... did you sell out of CUB? Am I the only one holding because I wasn't paying attention? Dang it...
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no I bought at $2.70 instead of waiting 24 hours.
Ahhhhhhhhhhh, haha. You really should have listened to yourself.
I know right? wtf
Nice post. There should be no fear as the price crashes through the $50k mark over and over, while rising and falling. Fear comes into play when someone is not diversified. Thanks for the clip - I need to watch Trading Places again.
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So you should keep your USDT to get over these feelings and if it goes down, don't lose everything.
No matter the news is positive, the market is going up tremendously but don't let greed take you too far.
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Your post is reblogged and upvoted by me. It is a good post. Thank you @edicted
wow! If I haven’t seen your predictions keep coming true, I would call you crazy.
If that actually happens where would Hive be by then?
everyone just has to chill... we'll reach 300-500k BTC soon enough :)
Following you on this. The best strategy is DCA and HODL. I cannot time the market. If everything that you said is accurate, I would be happy :)
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This April 1st will be a great time to buy Bitcoin thus investing in the medium or long term, as it would not be unusual for this new quarter to increase considerably its current value.