Hive has officially reached the desperation phase.

in LeoFinance6 months ago

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You'd never know it by looking at the charts.

But crypto users are completely tapped out, running on fumes, and it shows. In retrospect when we look at the charts many will assume that 'obviously' the worst time was right after the FTX collapse. That's when price was lowest after all. However the people's version of history is always quite different than those who actually write the books.

Many forget about crabs in a bucket theory.

When Bitcoin outperforms the market altcoiners tend to get desperate. We see this all the time. During the year of the maximalist (this year in the cycle) Bitcoin tends to outperform and alts will bleed against it. Even if alts aren't going down and trading flat it doesn't matter. If people see Bitcoin going up but not their preferred coin, this becomes a psychological problem that has real consequences.

This effect was particularly bad in 2019.

It was actually worse back then than it is today, but we still see the same type of pattern. Crypto users don't get mentally tapped out at the bottom of the bear market. They get exhausted after, during the slow boring grind sideways. There are always a ton of psych-outs where the market will pretend to be in a rally and potentially a full blown bull market, but inevitably it always deflates, each time leaving crypto users feeling helpless and potentially very bored and anxious that it will never end. We had one of these moments just recently when the summer rally and support lines basically just fell away. Everyone cheered when BTC hit $25k up from $16k, but everyone loses their minds when we retest $25k for the second time after being in a higher range for a while.


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The most recent dip in crypto has people absolutely scrambling.

You can feel it on platforms like crypto Twitter, and we can see it right here on Hive. How many Hive users recently just had an idea that requires a hardfork in order to make number go up during the bear market? I call these bear market ideas,, and they should never be implemented, ever.

It's times like this I envy Bitcoin.

Does anyone realize how much we look like jackasses when every time the bear market rolls around everyone and their mother pitches an idea to completely change the way this network operates? Bitcoiners that try to pull that bullshit get laughed right off the stage, which is very much the appropriate response. It is so dangerous for powerful and respected users on this network to continually to be so fickle in the wake of a bear market. Please stop pitching these ideas: they hurt our reputation and will almost certainly have the opposite of the intended outcome.

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The false narrative goes something like this:

Printing money is bad in a bear market because printing money means there are more tokens in the circulating supply. More money in the circulating supply means token dilution, and thus one token will be worth less than before. This is bad and we should move to print less tokens, or divert the tokens we are printing to long-term holders so they don't get dumped on the exchanges.

TERRIBLE IDEAS

ALL OF THEM. FUCKING AWFUL. STOP PITCHING THIS CONCEPT PRONTO.
I'm super serial right now guys. I'm over it. Cut the shit. Every one of these ideas has a common theme that makes them invalid. Not only do they attempt to tame the market cycle: something which no professional economist, government, or bank has EVER accomplished, but also they attempt to tame the market cycle ONLY during the bear market.

The market cycle has TWO SIDES: TWO.

I repeat: two sides. If you pitch an idea trying to make number go up during the bear market, THEN AT THE VERY LEAST YOU MUST PITCH THE COUNTER-CONCEPT TO MAKE NUMBER GO DOWN IN THE BULL MARKET. You are absolutely not to be taken seriously otherwise. This is simple elasticity 101. If you want to make the token less volatile, then it must be made less volatile in BOTH directions.

Because guess what?

Even if you pitch an idea that makes number go up now during the bear market... well what stops that idea from making number go up during the bull market as well? Then the NEXT bear market comes and wrecks us all over again because the volatility is still EXACTLY THE SAME. Nothing changed. We're still going to lose 90% of the token price during the next bear market. This is not an improvement.

Oh I haven't even started this rant yet.

Because a lot of the ideas that get pitched are going to do THE EXACT OPPOSITE of what the person pitching them thinks they are going to do. Yes, 20% yield on HBD is high. What of it? Again the concept here is that if we lower HBD yield right now then less Hive of going to be printed and number will go up. WRONG. SO WRONG. HEINOUSLY WRONG. PLEASE CEASE AND DESIST.

If we lower the HBD interest rates then some percentage of people holding HBD for the high interest rates are going to decide that holding HBD at lower interest rates is no longer worth it. They will IMMEDIATELY dump their HBD, which in turn will IMMEDIATELY drop the peg under a dollar, which will IMMEDIATELY financially incentivize the network to convert HBD into HIVE, which will then IMMEDIATELY be dumped on the exchanges and lower the price of Hive. See how that works?

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Manipulating emissions is a delayed reaction.

I keep trying to tell people this and literally no one listens. Governments and economists understand this concept just fine, but crypto users are absolutely clueless. You print money during a recession to boost the economy and get out of the recession. You tighten policy to put a lid on it and make sure inflation doesn't get out of control during the good times when the economy can handle it. This is standard operating procedure and the optimal outcome. Crypto people pitch the exact opposite idea over and over again and it is so very cringe and short-term thinking.

An APR is measured annually.

That's what the 'A' stands for in APR. 20% APR. Annual. If we reduce the HBD APR to 12% tomorrow, how much Hive did we save? How much less Hive got printed tomorrow because we reduced the APR by 8%? ZERO. ZERO less Hive was printed. We still have the exact same amount of Hive in circulation during this snapshot of the network, because that's how numbers work. It takes A YEAR for 12% APR to actually be 12%. This is not a hard concept to understand, or so I thought when I first started making these points. So one has to GUESS where we are going to be A YEAR FROM NOW when tinkering with emission rates measured on a yearly scale. Welcome to basic economics. It's not easy. Why else would professional economist be a paying job?

If we lower the APR on HBD, Hive will get dumped on the markets now: today, and that 8% difference in yield will not actually materialize for an entire year. The time to lower interest rates was at the peak of the bull market in 2021. Now is literally THE WORST time to talk about lowering it. If anything we should be talking about increasing it, but we can't because obviously 20% is already pretty nuts. We've already trapped ourselves in a web of bad economic policy. All we can do is sit here and and wait for the market to turn. Lowering emissions is not an option during bad times: this will only make the problems worse in the short-term. I guarantee it.

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We expect too much of witnesses.

And honestly it's alarming. First and foremost a witness is expected to be a dev (for the most part). They are also expected to be a politician, as governance decisions are being made at this level for everyone else in a republic-like system called DPOS. And now we see that witnesses have control of interest rates, so they also have to be economists. But wait Hive is also kind of like a business, so witnesses need to be businessmen as well.

That is literally 4 full time professional jobs at the same time. None of the witnesses can do it. None of them. The only way to do it is to have witnesses be companies of multiple people with different skillsets, which is where I see this network eventually going, but these initial stages are quite the thing. It's not pretty, especially from the outside looking in.

Conclusion

This happens every market cycle, and it needs to stop. I have the utmost respect for the users trying to make this ecosystem more sustainable, but I guarantee a lot of these ideas will have the exact opposite intended effect. As a rule of thumb if you didn't have the idea during the bull market then it shouldn't be considered during the bear market either. Scrambling to change the system based upon where we are in the market cycle is a terrible strategy and highlights the fact that we, as a network, are willing to change the rules whenever it suits us. And people say Bitcoin is "old tech". Yeah well sometimes reinventing the wheel is a really terrible idea. In fact, most of the time this is true. Vast majority. Stability and dependability matter.

During bear markets in crypto people get into this penny-pitching mindset that serves no one's best interest. We keep looking at the core code and wondering how we can tweak it with a hardfork to create the perfect most efficient use of our resources. It's the equivalent of refactoring code in a program that works fine and doesn't need to be refactored. Yes, it could be more efficient, but the ultimate resource is time. Our time would be better spent elsewhere focusing on building out rather than introspectively wondering if this or that thing needs to be changed. It doesn't. It works. Leave it alone: you're going to break it. Don't try to 'fix' it. Asking frantically, "CAN DEVS DO SOMETHING!?!" when number go down is never the correct response.

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I guarantee everyone here that the best way to build value on Hive has absolutely nothing to do with a hardfork. Ever. A killer dapp will never come from a hardfork. Slowly cranking out infrastructure is boring and tedious. I'm absolutely not envious of the job the Blocktrades does or other core dev, and I'm very glad they are around to do it because it needs to get done. Notice how none of them are pitching ideas like this and instead are focused on scale and the API and HAF and real tech that might make a real difference eventually. Unfortunately it takes years for infrastructure such as this to actually be built upon by others to create the value we'd like to have tomorrow. Patience is a virtue.

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At the end of the day I'm not even worried about any of these bad policies being implemented. Blocktrades is way to smart for that. He's way too conservative as well and doesn't like to gamble with the network, which is great. How long was I screaming from the rooftops that Hive needed an AMM internal market incentivized by printing more emissions? Blocktrades personally told me that it was too risky for various reasons. I was thinking, "hm, maybe," at the time: and now 99.9% of all the AMM defi tokens have crashed to zero. Go figure. On top of that the current Hive/HBD orderbook has exponentially more liquidity now than it did back then due to the stabilizer and other factors. Yep. Pretty good. Color me impressed.

The real thing I'm worried about is that well respected people on this network keep pitching these ideas about drastically changing the rules of the platform every single bear market. It's such bad optics. Not only will the core devs never implement the ideas, but it just makes us look like we have no idea what we are doing, which we don't. Hopefully we figure it out one day and stop drowning in this blatant scarcity mindset. Soon™

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I thought I'd reply here and return the compliment you gave me by leaving such a thorough comment on my own post about this topic, instead of just replying inside my post.

I call these bear market ideas,, and they should never be implemented, ever

In yesterday's @crypt0holics - the best and most popular show on Hive ofc - episode I said something along these lines, we should never make such big changes at times like these, they are desperate measures that never end well - like calling your ex at 2am after the 13 tequila shot. We're around the 27 shot, we're not fit to make decisions like this one imo. Let's wait it out until tomorrow when we are fresh and new.

My post from yesterday as trying to give ideas about what could work better than the proposed APR lowering, but I did stated at the beginning of the post that I was against this change.

By the way, I didn't feel like you were trashing my ideas. I actually would prefer to keep things the way they are, but I felt like giving other options to those in charge so that maybe they consider not lowering the APR. Those were the best ideas I got hehe.

Now that I'm done with replying to your comment from yesterday I'll get to the actual context of your post, sorry for using your comment section's clout to reply, kek.

Please stop pitching these ideas: they hurt our reputation and will almost certainly have the opposite of the intended outcome.

I agree. Setting the APR at 20% and using this as a selling point or value proposition for adoption, and then just changing it without really having done any impactful marketing and trying to spread it far and wide (I understand there was an agency involved but that didn't brought much results) sounds like a bad plan. I never really thought of the perception outside whales would have from a blockchain that makes this kind of changes during this part of the cycle, but you are right, or at least sounds like you are.

people holding HBD for the high interest rates are going to decide that holding HBD at lower interest rates is no longer worth it. They will IMMEDIATELY dump their HBD

Heh, manofculture.jpg - I actually said this very same thing in the most recent vid you were listening to, before even reading this post, dunno if you caught it, but this is correct. IF HBD stops having such yield, it's not like holders will say "oh well, no more 20% I guess it's time to buy hive and power it up"; no, they will move onto another stable that yields better or that their granny likes more. My Stablecoin funds are separate from my investment funds, and if even my rookie ass knows this, every other investor will do the same. HBD and HIVE are not competitors to each other, I assess HBD, USDC, DAI, BUSD and USDT and then decide what to get for my stable bag. I then compare HIVE with RUNE, SONNE, ARBIRTRUM and then decide what to put in my investment bag. Then I assess my degen bag ofc, I had to mention it. But HBD and HIVE are not taking potential bags from each other and to think that the 20% APR from HBD is taking away potential investments from HIVE is well, I don't buy it, let's just put it that way.

Btw, wen magitek

MAGITEK

Indeed.

Cool thanks for not taking it personally, sometimes I really have no idea how people are going to react to my harsh assessments.

Setting the APR at 20% and using this as a selling point or value proposition for adoption, and then just changing it without really having done any impactful marketing and trying to spread it far and wide

Hey this is the exact narrative I've been going with too. I feel affirmed XD

I feel like nobody actually knows what aspect of Hive they want to market:

Free speech? Decentralization? high APR? DPOS? democracy? Get Paid 2 Blog? Reddit? Web 3.0? Entrepreneurialism? Play-to-earn? All of the above? It's so scattered.
~ Me

Make a decision based on market research, use the 20% as a cherry on top of the cake, then push the boat out and make facebook ads n' shit like every other start up with something to sell

This is one of the main reasons why I think we should market dapps with specific branding, message and value proposition. You can market the decentralized part of hive through 3speak, the get sharea2earn (which I hate) through liketu, the blogging on steroids through peakd, the entrepreneurialism through HAF etc etc etc

We are so fixed on promoting hive and using hive as a whole as an anchor or attraction point, when in reality hive is so vast and diverse that it is not through hive that we will get adopted, it is through ten splinterlands that hive will explode, but that's just my 2cents.

I feel affirmed

Hehe yes, same thinking fren :D

I mean think about it, does Facebook markets itself as "The best python built app in the market"? Nah, so why should say, actifit, promote the dapp using aspects of the chain like decentralized or DPOS? My grandma doesn't care about witnesses, she cares about being able to count her steps. Hell, she doesn't even care about the AFIT or HIVE involved in the process.

Know your audience, develop your brand, determine the message, get to it. The more specific the message, the easier the sell.

People wonder why web3 is not getting adopted, but it's stupid easy to figure out why: Nobody cares about a web3, decentralized, blockchain powered, POW consensus, censorship proof, cooking recipe app. People just want to have the best interface in an easy to use app where they can bookmark their recipes and the app telling them when it's the high season for the veggie and fruit ingredients so they can make the best pie in town.

Who cares if each recipe is engraved forever in a libertarian, censorship proof, shady database where schizos write about how the government is going to take every freedom from us.

My opinion is Nobody should be tellimg people the 20% is permanent or use it as a selling point to get people here. HBD has its purpose but it’s a losing game to use it as the reason to be here. That wont end well because one day it won’t be 20%…

Eh I don't believe in that. I don't believe it shouldn't be talked about and adjusted because guess what we were in the bear market when HBD APR was changed in the first place. Did it benefit hive? To me it doesn't look like it and just exited even more cash flow OUT of hive. I could be wrong on that but it's the feeling I get unless someone can show me some charts to really show what's happening.

I guess the number that's really missing that I can't find is how much HBD there is in market cap total and combine the two Hive and HBD. Has the market cap increased in a year or has it fallen since the 20% APR?

Yes, reducing by 12% doesn't sound like a lot but it's 1% per month. it adds up.

Can you show me the exit flow of HBD interest to Hive and then cashed out?

That data is going to show you better than anything else over speculation and feels like what's missing at the moment to make any real educated talks about it.

because guess what we were in the bear market when HBD APR was changed in the first place.

Incorrect... I think... now I need to look it up.
It had to have been implemented in 2021 pretty sure.
The entire point of 20% was competing with stables like UST.
https://peakd.com/@edicted/20-interest-rate-on-hbd
Wrote that post in April 2022 right before shit hit the fan.
Hive was still trading at around $1.
So the timing is... interesting.

In any case @dalz has all this information organized into nice charts and things.

It very clearly shows that a high demand for HBD can easily make Hive go completely deflationary and results in net-negative inflation as Hive is destroyed to mint more HBD. The question then becomes okay if we keep printing 20% yields how much demand does that give HBD vs how much do those yields get dumped out to Hive. It's all guesswork, but a lot of the people saying we should reduce yields don't even consider this math or even attempt to calculate or guess at it because "printing money is bad".

https://peakd.com/@dalz/exploring-the-sustainability-of-the-hbd-interest-rate-in-the-hive-ecosystem-or-realized-and-projected-inflation-from-hbd

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So yes, easily easily easily HBD can sustain 20% yields if the demand outstrips the supply. 20% yield gives HBD more demand. There are many other reasons to hold HBD as well, with even more projects being built that will certainly use it. The cost of 20% with the current 7.5% debt ratio results in the Hive network only having to pay 1.5% of the Hive market cap to sustain 20% yields on HBD. Is HBD worth 1.5% a year to the Hive network. I would say this is obviously the case. Things could change if the debt ratio goes higher, but for now it's fine, and there is a hardcap at 30% haircut.

This should genuinely be looked at when considering HBD APR. https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@lordbutterfly/re-bitcoinflood-rzywcu

But lets see what he has to say. Maybe he responds.

@lazy-panda would you please share your thoughts if the high HBD APR was a factor in you choosing to place your capital into Hive? What do you think about the witnesses discussing a reduction in HBD APR and how would that affect your future actions. Would it? Do you think we can attract more investors from, Steem for example, by maintaining the high APR?

as the debt ratio is still under 10%, it will be definitely wrong decision if APR is cut down by 8% or more...

Appendix : Not only from Steemit, but, I guess a lot of investors and traders from different platforms will attract to Highers APR of HBD staking.

Maybe if we could prove the APR is indeed bringing in investors, or some ideas were shared on how we could do it more effectively, it could sway decisions towards maintaining it.

I def dont believe it should drop anywhere near 8% if indeed any APR drop actually happens. Right now we are solid at 20% based on witness feeds.

In fact my recollection is that neither GTG nor Ausbitbank mentioned any of this at all, but instead said it made Hive 'look bad', which is why they were reducing the rate.

Did it benefit hive? To me it doesn't look like it and just exited even more cash flow OUT of hive

https://peakd.com/@lazy-panda/wallet

Check the wallet and incoming Hive and HBD in savings. How it flowed.
Acid proposed this was a known STEEM account putting capital into Hive.
Imagine if we could take more of their whales investment.
Imagine if he sells off his HBD, we lose peg, conversion and dump of Hive commences.

Must be a different username over on steem but yeah that would be nice there's so much junk money floating around on steem and Tron it's pretty ridiculous.

When Hive was created the Steem usernames were simply ported to Hive. If that account originated on Steem, it's the same username.

https://peakd.com/hive-133987/@arcange/hive-finance-20230824-en

Liquid HBD seems to be getting smaller and smaller, while the HBD in savings is increasing. I believe you have what you are looking for in arcange's post.

If we lower the HBD interest rates then some percentage of people holding HBD for the high interest rates are going to decide that holding HBD at lower interest rates is no longer worth it. They will IMMEDIATELY dump their HBD, which in turn will IMMEDIATELY drop the peg under a dollar, which will IMMEDIATELY financially incentivize the network to convert HBD into HIVE, which will then IMMEDIATELY be dumped on the exchanges and lower the price of Hive. See how that works?

Well, a lot of witnesses pretty much decided that this will not happen. I tried my best to help explain why we need to avoid this situation. Millions of dollars could leave the ecosystem.
The reasoning they gave me: "Well, theyre just taking inflation with no effort." so it doesnt matter. Some claim that its even better that happens as idiotic as that might be.

Fine. If you want that amount of money leaving the system, that is your choice. Lets see who was right.

And then ironically during the bull market these same people will be like "let's increase the HBD APR we can totally afford it!" Like... no dude, that's exactly the opposite of what you're supposed to be doing.

Yeah. When up only, make them prefer Hive, down only, still get them to keep money in Hive (HBD).

Great post. Made a lot of things clear to a pleb like me... But then again, looks like some of the witnesses are plebs too, pretending to know what they're doing when coming up with smart bear market ideas such as the current HBD savings lowering interest one...

It's honestly not a terrible idea I just get triggered when I read the justifications for the action and the logic doesn't seem to align with reality. Certainly there are better arguments to be made than the ones being made, I'm just not seeing them, and that creates alarm bells for me.

As you pointed out in the introduction of the post, the current market situation makes many of us give birth to all sorts of alarming of useless ideas. Wait until greed takes over the market again and everything will be fine, no tweaks needed anymore, no Binance falling, no nothing. Psychology of the masses is such a gem of an indicator if you're paying attention to it.

spot on man

tbh I am a little afraid when I hear witnesses do "blockchain politics" - this is where it go bad imho

witnesses must secure the network and protocol. that's it.
I am coming on and off the platform and let's be honest - people are not doing bad here. not at all. if someone is writing and has some kind of following he/she makes more money than some crypto guy who bought COIN X and now prays for it to go up, while seeing it hitting lower and lower levels.

I see posts that get $20 dollars all the time and I am not talking about some sophisticated technical posts revealing the truths of the universe.

take hive for what it is and enjoy.

Printing TOO MUCH money is certainly bad otherwise we could print infinity and everybody would be rich. The question is how much is reasonable to print? Given the current debt ratio and other factors, the current 20% seems fine, at least for now. Also, whenever the interest rate is changed, it probably shouldn't be in large chunks. If we really wanted to reduce it, maybe go from 20% to 18% or 19% and then reevaluate again down the road. Otherwise, like you said, there's likely be be a lot of people dumping.

Points that others have brought up about what really creates value in hive:

  1. The value of hive will ultimately be determined by the applications built on the blockchain
  2. Because of #1, there really can't be too much investment in infrastructure
  3. Because of #1, most hive advertising/promotion should be aimed at developers (unless it is the apps themselves being promoted)

On a side note, blocktrades is currently signalling a 12% interest rate. Among the top 10 witnesses there are 6 at 20%, 1 at 12%, 1 at 19% and 2 at 15%

Indeed blocktrades has been signaling 12% this entire time since before we even moved to 20%.

"The value of hive will ultimately be determined by the applications built on the blockchain."

Actually more than just applications, the utility of Hive to the community is what will determine it's value, which is why applications matter. The interest rate on HBD of 20% made it facile for me to counter IRL inflation, which is higher than that IMHO. Cutting interest on HBD will, as I told Ausbitbank, eliminate my use of HBD to counter IRL inflation, and I will seek other options.

In some goods, inflation has reached >100% in the last year. I know, because I just bought some of them today. There are ways I can counter that inflation, such as doubling the hours I work, entering industries with higher markup than that, such as crack sales or manufacturing, and loaning money at higher rates. Some of those things I am willing to do, and others not so much. But holding HBD at 12% won't do me any good.

Thanks!

Bear market ideas ... thats a good one :)

Yeah I mean it happens every cycle and it's getting tedious :D

Everything I wanted to articulate about this situation, you've said it a million times better than I could. If you ever decide to become a witness, I'm voting for you right away.

Changing the the numbers at rock bottom is the single most disastrous thing you could do right now. Rallying the people to vote for the %20 signal witnesses is about the only thing we can do right now.

I actually do share a witness called @hextech with rishi556 and sn0n.
Check it out:

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If I'm being honest I should be putting so much more work into this node, but alas rishi seems to do the vast majority of the actual work.

If anything, I wouldn’t mind an increase to the HBD APR.

I actually agree. I think the lack of impact the 20% rate has had is because inflation is much higher, which means the interest rate on HBD is too low. It should be at least 40% IMHO.

Thanks!

Just weeding out the nonbelievers. Only the strong will survive.

Spot on !

I'm a small fish in a big pond, so my views probably won't influence the witnesses. But my view is that if the interest rate went up or down by a couple of %, that would be fine.

An 8% drop feels like a panic reaction and damages my confidence in Hive as an ecosystem. It makes me wonder what is going on below the surface that I don't know about. I'll carry on posting and earning here - I like it as a social platform, irrespective of the crypto aspect. But what will stop dead (whether this passes or not) is me DCA'ing £100 a month into an ecosystem whose stability I have reason to doubt.

If I start thinking that this will make the HIVE price dump and stay dumped, then I'll pull my HBD out, and it won't turn into HP, I'll take it out completely and put it somewhere I feel is safer. Maybe even into non-crypto investments.

When I look at actual data on crypto prices as a whole, despite the attempts to talk up a bull market, the reality is that it's been a slow but steady decline with occasional sharper drops since the end of 2021. Like many others, I've held on grimly hoping that things will turn around. Seeing Hive witnesses doing something which looks like a suicide move for HIVE as a whole makes me wonder what is going on.

Perhaps we need more witnesses, who can then be segmented based on their areas of expertise.

"...what is going on."

Steem exemplifies what governs Hive, because Steem showed that if the platform grows enough actual IRL financial sharks will gobble up the assets necessary to completely govern Hive. Hive is a pure plutocracy, where having more money gives an account more power to govern. Sun Yuchen just bought enough stake to completely control Steem, and eliminated the oligarchy that @ned allowed to run things.

Hive eliminated that stake, and restored the oligarchy to control of governance. This is why they keep adoption and retention too low to attract outside investors that could gobble them up and eliminate their cushy returns.

Thanks!

It seems to me that someone got bored and began to invent some stupid combinations (manipulate other people's money), but when someone raises the issue of reducing the Hive blocking time, everyone immediately hides their heads in the bushes. This question is long overdue - for a start, I would lower it by half. Dear @edicted, could you analyze the possible reduction in blocking time in a separate post and calculate the pros and cons of this change?

99px_ru_animacii_29454_izmenenie_v_cheloveke_s_sigaretoj_by_dax_norman.gif

Like... the time between blocks?
Less than 3 seconds?
That topic is actually beyond my depth and takes a lot of knowledge of core development.
I know Blocktrades has said it's possible to implement 1 second block times.
I'm not sure if it would be worth the hassle but maybe?

No, I probably didn't express myself correctly. I was referring to the Hive Power (HP) unlock time - everyone says it's a huge hurdle for them. I don't know if this is technically possible - you could do an analysis and consider a hypothetical 1 month unlock!

We don't have to consider a hypothetical 1 month unlock.
That's legit like every HiveEngine token.
I sure some people enjoy it.
It makes no difference to me personally.

Yes everyone complains about the timelock.
Changing it is very possible.
But I highly doubt it would really change anything for the better.
My experience with people is that they're bullshitters when it comes to these things.

I do not like that pic. It trolls my soul. Because trolls are essential to free speech, I am upvoting your comment.

Thanks!

I'm not going to pretend to understand economics. I will say that I throw every bit of HBD into savings because it would be nuts to not do this. However, if the rate is lowered, I'd probably dump some of the HBD. Is that the intended effect?

I would have expected that proposals are backed up by data, because you know, that's respectable. Without hard data a lot of these proposals seems like weak conjecture.

Is that the intended effect?

lol no that is the opposite of the intended effect.
The intended effect is to make Hive go up.
Dumping HBD makes Hive go down.

I mean I'd consider using the HBD but it'd require the rewards earned (voting, posting) to be competitive.

Witnesses are not required to float a proposal to raise or reduce interest rates on HBD. They just pick a number, and when enough of them coincide that's the rate.

I don't like that, because it's difficult to change witnesses based on that metric, so it's the worst way to set HBD interest rates, except for all the others.

Thanks!

Imagine if it was handled like the DHF.

I think we can afford 20% APR but also the same arguments as to why keep it at 20% to me are valid to keep it at 12% for example (the value blocktrades is signaling for)

Changing the APR PROBABLY won't have any significant effects positive or negative because the HBD in circulation is low. Keeping it at 12% is still high enough so that within a few years we will have significantly more HBD in circulation, but low enough so that it doesn't sound too good to be true.

It is expected that markets start lowering interest rates soon. 20% APR may attract users, but if we can't keep those users because of HIVE and Hive, then we are not doing something right.

Anyways, developing of Hive infrastructure, apps and functionalities keep going. We never stop working on bull or bear markets, that is what I am impressed about on this blockchain.

Now, in regards to a hardfork, who is stalking about a hardfork and for what reason?

Blocktrades has been signaling for 12% HBD for over a year since before we even increased it to 20%.
I think you're underestimating Hive's low liquidity.
If even 10% of all HBD gets sold Hive's price is going to take a big hit.
Not just from the $800k that got dumped but because speculators will frontrun that dump as well.

Yes, that is a valid point.

You raise valid points. Don't you think we were greedy to raise it to 20% as fast as we did?

I refused to go for 20% and left my signal at 18% because it felt too rushed. Now that there is talk about reducing I am going slowly too and I hope we reach a consensus for the long term and focus on development.

About liquidity, not only the APR can cause that. At such low liquidity, low volume and low market cap we are subject to speculation "attacks" for any reason whatsoever, but what keeps Hive safe un my opinion is because apparently (and that is a gut feeling) the biggest investors are developers and real believers that have stayed here in the biggest ups and the lowest downs. I respect the small investors that may panic sell but I have a feeling that the big investors are here to accumulate assets and build the network over time.

I am biased because those are the kind of people I met on Hivefest and I am that kind of person. I didn't meet many speculators that are on Hivejust to make a quick buck, the people I know would move their assets around but try to make Hive work one way or another

Yes it would be much smarter to test out 18% then 15% then 12% rather than jumping straight to 12%.
It's actually a huge oversight that I didn't mention it in the OP.

It never should of been 20%. Now people are making plans in it being permanent which is insane because it is not. 20% was way to high. I obviously have taken advantage and put HBD into savings due to it but it wasn’t a good move at all.

"...we are not doing something right."

We are not resisting censorship enough. Hive has driven off thousands of high quality creators through opinion flagging, and that is one of the primary reasons adoption is low, and retention is worse.

Thanks!

"If we lower the HBD interest rates then some percentage of people holding HBD for the high interest rates are going to decide that holding HBD at lower interest rates is no longer worth it. They will IMMEDIATELY dump their HBD, which in turn will IMMEDIATELY drop the peg under a dollar, which will IMMEDIATELY financially incentivize the network to convert HBD into HIVE, which will then IMMEDIATELY be dumped on the exchanges and lower the price of Hive. See how that works?"

This is exactly what is happening today. Two consensus witnesses, GTG and Ausbitbank IIRC, just posted that they were cutting the interest rate on HBD in savings with the intention of cutting it in half. I told the latter I was agin' it, but doubt they'll listen to me. I also told him that if they did it I would have to seek such returns elsewhere, exactly as you predict in the above quote.

"...20% is already pretty nuts."

It's below par with inflation IMHO. I was at the grocery store today, and noted many things have literally doubled in price in a year, and very few haven't increased substantially. I'm not sure what the actual inflation rate is overall, since it's specific to all the variety of stuff that's priced, but I am very confident it's not below 20%. Just last week Argentina devalued the Peso by 30%, bumping their inflation rate up to ~180%, and I believe there are those attempting to do exactly the same thing to the Dollar.

I have found that it is being right about things that make me the saddest, because it means the tragic events I was right about were entirely predictable, and could have been avoided. I advocate raising the interest on HBD to 50%, not dropping it to 10%, but I want to see Hive grow, not keep it crippled and unattractive to outside investors.

Thanks!

Hi, I'm waiting for Hive to drop to $0.20 to buy, it's a great ecosystem, nice post.👍👍👍


I don't want to be too optimistic.......
But don't you think the situation is being exaggerated a little bit?😅



No quiero ser muy optimista.......
Pero no crees que se está exagerado un poquito la situación


Yes
Sensationalism sells, friend.

Some want to be whales 🐋
Others become sharks 🦈

Slight tangent, but I believe HBD APR doesn't require a HF.

Deathwing's suggestion would probably do though.

Also another slight tangent, since Witnesses get paid in HP, increasing the HP APR is Witnesses paying themselves more in an indirect way.

HBD APR changes don't require a hardfork.

This is an irrelevant detail because lowering the APR will make number go down even though the pretext being presented claims number will go up.

Wtinesses paying themselves more, in a indirect way.

Not really because the a lot of the witnesses don't even have that much stake.
I have more stake than a lot of the top 20 witnesses, including deathwing's account.
I don't see it as a ploy for self-aggrandizement.

This is an irrelevant detail because lowering the APR will make number go down even though the pretext being presented claims number will go up.

That is why I said it was a tangent.

Not really because the a lot of the witnesses don't even have that much stake.
I have more stake than a lot of the top 20 witnesses, including deathwing's account.
I don't see it as a ploy for self-aggrandizement.

I am not saying that is why they are doing this, it is just a side-effect of them getting paid in HP. So any change to HP APR makes them earn more, even though it is not their intention.

Yes you're right the optics are bad.

It would be bad policy to allow witnesses change the system without doing the game-theory on how those policies directly benefit themselves, potentially at the expense of others. For example what if the witness in question had a huge stack of HBD and they purposefully wanted to tank the value of Hive so they could more than double their HP value using the HBD stack? Ya never know, of course again I don't think there is anything shady going on in this case.

Let's not move too rapidly

@tipu curate

i believe it is better to change it and get it right now, you never can tell Btc might be heading to 10k and what will be the hope of hive then?

This is crypto anything can happen. Lowering the APR gradually must start now.

Bitcoin isn’t going to 10K my friend.

I do agree 20% doesn’t make sense.

Solid Rant! Perfect balance of rant anger and substance.

I agree. Suddenly adjusting because of present market conditions paints in a bad light. It shows uncertainty and instability. The focus is should be on the annual part not just for the present months.

Let the players, who thoroughly understand the market premises, rightly and holistically analysis this critical issues so that appropriate and sustainable decisions can be taken.

The top witnesses of Hive are the reason I have lost all faith in this platform and have tuned out. They are so off the ball I'm not even sure they had one to begin with. Every one of their proposals disproportionately affects them for the better while leaving all the smaller users with less. I thought this was created to do something different than real life.

If I wanted this kind of treatment I'd vote in local politics. 😕

What are the best examples of this?

I haven't been around as much, so I didn't know this conversation was happening, but I did expect it.

Since my job is time consuming and Bear Market Hive is depressing and boring, I haven't spent as much time around as I have in past bear seasons. Blame it on my entire life changing last year and having too much to handle.

In anycase, my plan was to power down half of my stake and put it in HBD since I haven't been as active and I want to avoid getting out of Hive entirely.

However, seeing this debate, I'm going to stop buy HBD until the argument wanes. Mind you though, I don't find liquid Hive to be a good holding and I am not sure I will not convert it to something else.

Great discussion, still catching up.

I get the physiological impact of lower APR in this cycle, but If there is less incentive to hold HBD people will buy hive. This would put selling pressure on HBD, but if appreciation of Hive is bigger than the yield this could cause a compounding effect and people would continue to buy hive.

@edicted:

Finally I've had time to read this carefully. We've been readying our home (49 years!) for sale and it is now listed on the market. So here I am, paying attention to one of the great interests in my life.

I love this platform. Hive is a hobby, but it is more than that. It is a financial portal for people who have almost all other doors closed to them. I wish I had more knowledge, more heft, so I could help this platform to thrive. The financial underpinnings of this (and most other businesses) are beyond my ken. Instinctively, I trust @blocktrades' skill and motivation. After reading this post, I trust yours also.

A classic criticism of the U.S. business model is that it suffers from short-perspective. It plans for the next quarter, not the next five years. This seems to be exactly what you are describing as bear market 'fixes' for Hive. But worse than that, you seem to be suggesting that tinkering with HBD interest rates would cause a bleed even in the short term.

Your position sounds logical to me, although I know that financial markets are often anything but logical. But, from my modest understanding, this post makes sense.

I'll support Hive no matter the price, no matter the market. I plug away and post as much as possible. I try to support bloggers who earn few rewards. It would be nice to make money here, but for me the platform is bigger than that. It's about the people who need Hive.

Good luck to you, and to all of us. Hive on!!

People can mess up a Soup Sandwich.
I think cutting the APR on your stable coin during a bear market, is like puncturing a hole in your fuel line in the middle of a drive across the dessert. Counterproductive.
I think cutting APR is less harmful in a bull market, when Hive is going up, but I don’t support any strategies which make HBD less attractive. Stable coin investors/holders value stability, let’s give that to them.
Finally, I agree mass adoption isn’t going to be triggered by the beautiful technology Hive has, it’s applications like Splinterlands and investments like HBD that will grow the ecosystem. Utility rules.