In my previous post and even ones before that I've mentioned how crucial it was for the price to stay above 20 cents and a weekly close below it could push prices lower.
That's exactly what happened as the market structure changed as HIVE broke out of a bullish pattern into a bearish one.
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There's not a lot of upside and a quick look at the order book reveals a lot of sell side pressure ready across exchanges and little buy side visible in comparison. Ofcourse, if it were to pump, buy side volume will come in but there's no chance of sustaining higher prices as more sell-side pressure will build up from those whose tokens aren't on the order books currently. Price is barely managing to hold current levels around $0.16 cents for now...
This weekly close is quite important but honestly it isn't looking very good at the moment. Not enough strength displayed by the price to change its course back towards the upside. I didn't update the last couple of weeks because my approach was mentioned in what seems like ages ago and 20 cent support is now a key resistance which has been tested and held as a strong resistance.
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Price has been consolidating after breaking lower but I wouldn't be surprised to see a dead cat bounce in an attempt to get towards 20 cents once again. But a sustained rally towards the upside seems improbable.
With bitcoin failing to cross back over 12K a strong move down from Bitcoin will likely bring HIVE price down. I'm weighing on the downside for now with a move down towards 13.8-14 cents looking likely if Bitcoin heads lower causing another altcoin sell-off event.
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Given how much importance DeFi projects hold in the crypto industry currently Hive seems to be in its own echo bubble for now. All the momentum Hive blockchain had as project early this year seems to have dissipated in the face of overwhelming interest towards DeFi projects.
From a price perspective a sustained rally requires us to break above 28 cents and hold that as support for starters which from its current price is roughly a 80% up move. I don't see enough demand for HIVE to get us there and then keep us above 25 cents for a push higher in the short term. A pump and dump type one-off event is always possible in small caps but a bull run for HIVE is highly improbable.
Even DeFi projects have bled hard in recent times, LINK for example down 60% from its ATH. So it shouldn't come as a surprise that HIVE is down 85% roughly from its ATH level.
Let's hope the price doesn't break lower from current levels as it would also suck for most of the low ranking witnesses and it's not that we have a ton of witnesses on Hive anyway...
Will the price do a double bottom at 6-7 cents before moving back up? Only time will tell now!
This post is not financial advice!
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I've been out of the rodeo for quite some time but still believe that projects such as hive will thrive long term.
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I wonder if the changes and decreases in crypto over all recently has anything to do with approaching end of the fiscal year. I am far away from being anything close to a finance guy, but it does seem to be that time of year, so maybe end of November we get to start seeing a nice rise back up the ladder.
Historical moves are an indicator to help set our expectations but they don't necessarily mean probabilistically it will play out for all markets or in this case for all cryptocurrencies. However, like yourself I am expecting a turn around for some tokens, especially majors like BTC and ETH around mid-December based on past moves. Small caps or the whole market could pump too, but how much and for how long are questions only time can answer with certainty and as more data presents itself between now and then. However, I base this idea for a mid-December market action from my own analysis of the charts but in any case im ready to take advantage of all these market moves.
As for HIVE, I'll have an update soon considering the price action played out exactly as I anticipated in this post.
its all about supply and demand. There is too much selling pressure. We need more incentives to buy tokens. The thing is, before, people wanting to buy LEO, for example, would have to buy Hive first then LEO, but then, the person getting the Hive might just go sell it down. Also, if we can buy LEO through WETH then Hive is left in the dark.
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