Everything is Falling into Place

in LeoFinance2 months ago

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The rally is on

I know it doesn't seem like it. SPS is back below $0.09 even after a very successful validator license sale that sold out the presale in 10 minutes. Meanwhile DEC got crushed all the way back down to its peg after having a week or two of a rally.

But if you stop looking at the tokens which are being kicked in the teeth right now because of crypto and instead look at the cards you see a very different story.

A few days ago the first part of the new rewards system got implemented: the penalizing you for using starter cards part.

In the next few days, we'll see the next phase come into play: the rewards.

And guess what?

People aren't using starter cards. In fact they bots are recalibrating to rent everything they can at prices that are as much as 300x higher than they were just a few days ago.

You can tell based on the choppiness of activity that they are experimenting right now before they unleash their full power.

We're also starting to see many of the cheaper and more used cards creep up in price. Some of these cards still just have so much inventory waiting to be sold that every time they pop someone floods the market with more, but what do you expect with 1.1 million print cards that are mostly held by bot accounts that sell everything they get?

But card like Furious Chicken which have been dropping for months, have now made a full turnaround. The chicken dropped for around $40 at the height of the market all the way down to $9 a few weeks ago, and today its all the way back up at $17 with a thin floor to get to $30.

Screen Shot 20220527 at 8.00.46 PM.png

Yes, I've been buying them all the way down. In fact back when the downtrend started my inventory consisted of 53 regular chickens and 3 gold. Still got just 3 gold but now I have 109 regular foil :)

Screen Shot 20220528 at 1.41.51 AM.png

It's the most used card in the game still. Wait until more streamers and esports people come in and all the aspiring players take note that top players use this card any time they can. A few days ago there were over 600 regular foil chickens for sale. Today there's only 114. We're about 25 sales away from chickens going back to $30.

How about the new Water Summoner Kelya Frendul? This is the most popular and most expensive of the (non-legendary) CL summoners. You can see, they dipped hard. This is a 3 month chart though and they are now sitting at their highest point in the last 3 months by a good amount. And honestly, they are still a steal at just a little over $5. I think we are going to start seeing these rent out for 20 dec soon. Bots already pushed them into the teens a few times.

Screen Shot 20220527 at 8.05.34 PM.png

And that's really the whole point.

A healthy rental market is a healthy economy. A larger rental market is a larger economy. A larger economy is one that pays out more to participate in it. It's one that attracts more investment.

Don't listen to the people telling you bots aren't coming in or they'll get discouraged and leave. The devs are saying that because it's what you want to hear but they are also talking nonstop about starting the ramp back up again in the second half of the year. They are calling for the summer of Splinterlands. June is next week. It's Memorial Day weekend in the US. Memorial Day weekend marks the unofficial start of summer.

@Yabapmatt closed his comment off in the the last AMA by saying they were doing things to 10x the player base this year. That means 3.5 - 4 million players is what they are going for. Aggroed posted his projections of selling out of CL packs this year faster than they sold out of Untamed and then closed it off by saying the game is about to moon and don't say you weren't warned.

Screen Shot 20220528 at 2.22.05 AM.png

This isn't going to happen by first losing hundreds of thousands of bot accounts. It's going to happen with bot accounts expanding. People with 100 bots will likely end up with 1000 bots. That's how this game grows. Not player by player but 1 account holder opening 10 accounts.

And they are going to rent and prices are going to soar on everything. What we are seeing now, is nothing. Right now we aren't out of cards. 400k players isn't enough to wipe us out of cards but I think by the time we get to about 1.5 million, inventory in this game is going to be ultra tight. By the time 2 million rolls around, bronze may need to use some starter cards again because there just won't be enough cards to play.

What happens to prices when there are actually not enough cards to play the game? They moon.

Screen Shot 20220527 at 6.43.52 PM.png

So what am I doing to prepare?

Well, over the past few weeks, I've opened about 275 Chaos Legion packs.

I'm also holding a little over 1 million dec liquid and about 750k more sitting in liquidity pools giving me double airdrop points.

I have about 80k SPS now and I'm determined to get to 6 figures by the end of this drop. We have about 2 months left.

I sold all my vouchers a few days ago to buy 600k more DEC for the cause since you don't get airdrop points for vouchers.

I've also been buying up cards. Here's just a small smattering of what I've picked up over the last week.

Screen Shot 20220528 at 2.33.36 AM.png

For the past few months I've been picking up cheap CP because its rents out for a lot. But now I'm moving over to cards people (bots) will use.

This mean new lvl 1 summoners, tanks like Serpent of Eld and frozen soldier, I swept the floor on those gold beta kobold miners. Rare popular CL monsters like Diemonshark and Mycelic Slipspawn, more chickens, the epic and legendary rewards cards, etc. If I think someone is going to need to use it and its currently cheap, I'm buying it.

I'm currently sitting on about 5900 cards/ 16,300 BCX. I think for now, I'm done accumulating unless I see an exceptional deal. Its hard because right now there are so many great deals out there and they are all tempting.

At some point, I do expect DEC to start moving up again and its possible that it moves faster than cards and the cards will be cheaper in the DEC I'm holding. If DEC were to get back up to $0.01 I would sell most of my dec. Unless cards were still cheap compared to Dec. Then I might load up on more cards with it.

As it is, the ability for DEC to go up is going to be limited to the next 6 months or so. After that the new burning SPS to get DEC will go into effect and DEC will become extremely stable. My hope is the devs just lock it in at $0.01 instead of letting it fall back down. With the size of the economy, we're going to need more money flowing through it and a higher value for DEC is a great way to do it.

What else is looking good?

Screen Shot 20220530 at 12.00.30 AM.png

Check out those new player numbers already picking up steam.

Screen Shot 20220530 at 12.01.07 AM.png

And yu can see here that the amount spent on cards each day has been trucking upward for the better part of a month now with some big spikes in the number of cards being bought. People are loading up. Mainly cheap cards right now but that's going to change as people choose their weapons and realize cards aren't as abundant as they once were.

Most of these higher end cards that seem bogged down in price really only have a few cards holding the price down. Once a few sell, prices are going to pop quickly. Let's look at Kron to understand what I'm saying.

Screen Shot 20220530 at 12.10.48 AM.png

Screen Shot 20220530 at 12.11.03 AM.png

Kron used to be a $500 card. Now it's $143. But look at the market. There's about 12 of them between $143 and $500 again. That's it. Kron is one of the more buried in price I see and just 12 sales or a couple people removing theirs from the market when price starts moving would be enough to drive price back to $500. What is it? Like $2000 maybe? That's nothing. It could happen in a day.

Or let's look at cards like Mischievous Mermaid. This was a $300 card at the peak. Not its $22! But look how little it would take to get it back up there.

Screen Shot 20220530 at 12.16.46 AM.png

What is that? Like less than what one of them cost at the peak and you could get yourself 7 of them and suddenly the floor price is back up to $200.

And this pattern is all over the place. It would take very little buying to get things moving quickly. That buying is starting to come in. Right now though its mostly concentrated CP buyers in the market but just like I'm shifting my buying to more usable cards, others will start doing the same soon and prices like $22 for an old Alpha Epic card will be things you tell your kids about one day.

What about you? Do you see the rally coming? If so, what are you doing to prepare?

Screen Shot 20220529 at 11.56.01 PM.png

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I am also buying a card, and the rewards for using the free card will be less.
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You made a key point, the cards on the market do have this phenomenon. A few cards are pulling prices down, but is there any chance of buying that could lift the market? I don't know, but I'm looking forward to it. After all, a lot has been invested, and there are even plans to upgrade some cards to the top level and stabilize at the diamond level.
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The thing is it doesn't really take much buying. If a few floors get taken out in similar cards, others will follow just because people will think they are a better deal. All it takes is a few big buyers to get the ball rolling.

And if things happen the way I think they are about to, we'll get plenty of reason for a few buyers to come in and get things going. As these cards start renting out higher and higher, the APR's will head up on them to a point where it would be silly not to buy them. That's why I came in with $50k last year and bought everything I could. The APR was insane. I was making 150% apr plus the airdrop.

I think the devs pulled the plug last year because they weren't ready for that level of growth, they beefed up their systems and card count, and now they are plugging the machine back in. We start getting that growth again, the buyers will show up in force.

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I hope you're right because I'm also continuing to invest in both cards and SPS, but the focus is on SPS, so I prefer SPS to grow better than cards. After all, SPS was around $0.85 when I started investing. And the cards are all for my own use, and I don't particularly hoard them, so I will keep them and continue to use .
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I hope I'm right too. I have a lot riding on it !LOL

I am excited about SPS for sure. I'm more excited about cards right now though. I'm trying to write a post now on my thoughts of SPS but its complicated.

First, when SPS was .85 there was very little of it out there and even less that was liquid so a small amount of reckless buying sent it soaring. Not saying it can't or won't go up there again, but its going to take a lot more energy than there was last time to push it there. Luckily if I'm right, we will be getting a lot more energy coming in soon.

But that's a big part of why I'm looking at cards now. SPS, even with only 1/5th of the total supply released is already a beast. It's moving a giant cruise ship vs a row boat right now with how much energy it will take to push SPS vs how much it would take to move some of these cards with a floor of about 10 cards before they triple.

I really expected validators to drive SPS to about .22 but they were just no match for the crypto market and it showed that the people who are deep in the game and SPS already have all the SPS they need in order to do everything they want to do. Vouchers tripled in price at one point while SPS moved up 30% and then fell again.

Still, SPS remains a big part of my future plans with investing in Splinterlands and I'm going to keep stacking.

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Looking at your analysis, it is true that the card has a chance than SPS, and I hope the overall trend can develop upwards.
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Hell yeah man, healthy signs are good. We can tell youre a fan of the furious chicken !LOL

I still end up using mine quite a bit. Wish i had the goldie.

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Well, I mean, its a chicken. And its furious. What's not to love about an angry chicken? !LOLZ Also, at $15 for the most popular card in the the game that only has 27k copies, you just can't go too wrong picking that up if you believe in this game.

I was pretty tempted to pick up a few more goldies a few weeks ago when they hit $100. Back over $200 now though.

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I might have to make some changes to my rental strategy but I still think CP is still going to be rented in the new reward system. Even with level 1 or 3 cards, the higher-end bots will be needing those CP for getting higher rankings in the seasonal rewards.

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Sure. I don't anticipate CP going by the wayside just yet. I just think we've swung so far to one side where renting out CP is where all the money is in the rental market. Buying strong playable cards to make a profit on the rental market has been a terrible move for the last 6 months where as it use to be where all the money was made.

I just think the pendulum is going to swing back toward playable cards now when player growth starts back up. You should still be able to rent out CP profitably though.

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Yea I still think CP will be quite profitable so I might just stick with my current strategy until I see something better.

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Nothing wrong with that. It's winning right now and I don't think there will be any losing strategies going forward.

I am watching some of these thin floors in popular cards though. That where we'll see the price ramps like last summer, and they should rent out for quite a bit too.

Keep stackin them mothafuckin Chickens guys, and rent them out...we're gonna make a killin trust me!!

I haven't looked at the card market in awhile.

By the sounds of it I should be trying to trade.

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