Will this dip in BTC be a small blip or the start of a deeper 30% correction?

in LeoFinance3 years ago


Bitcoin has either already bottomed or this is the start of a 30% correction

After trading above $58k for a bit yesterday (Sunday), bitcoin took one on the chin today, falling as low as $48k briefly before bouncing.

Currently, it's trading around $53k.

The question on everyone's mind is likely whether that was it or whether this is the start of a larger correction, something more in the range of a 30% draw down like we've seen in the past.

Back in the 2016-2017 post halving bull market bitcoin saw 6 corrections of roughly 30%:


(Source: https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@jrcornel/now-that-institutions-are-here-the-volatility-in-bitcoin-will-likely-decrease-but-it-s-not-going-away)

So far, during this cycle we've seen 2 thus far.

We saw one back in early September of last year that took the price down almost 30%, and then we saw another one in January that took the price down by about 30% as well.

If history were to repeat, we still have 4 more of these large 30% draw downs before we ultimately peak during this cycle.

Will that play out again?

I don't actually think we are going to see 6 pullbacks of roughly 30% during this cycle, though we certainly could.

With the amount of institutional involvement this time around, I think we will see a couple less as they help to stabilize the price on sell offs.

However, based on past data, there is a decent chance the current dip ends up being a 30% pullback.

We had the 100%+ move up from the lows after the last pullback like we normally see, which took the price from $29k to $58k.

I personally don't think it will go all the way down 30% and I think the lows are already in at $48k as there is strong support there like I mentioned here:


That being said, it certainly could, and history suggests that it just might be one of those.

In conclusion, history says that this probably turns into a 30% correction, however, @jrcornel says it's not going to be one of those because the weak hands are already out on this current dip and strong support was tested and proved strong indeed.

Who is going to win, history or @jrcornel?

Normally I stick with historical patterns, but this time may be different, dangerous words I know.

Stay informed my friends.


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It's usually two candles at least.

You can see it earlier on the very chart you used. There are two red candles, then a green. In the case of the chart you posted, it's a bit more in the earlier example. So, maybe it goes down a bit more, then back up, and down again.

If it is a 30%+ correction, yes. However, it isn't clear that's what it is at this point. Though history points to it likely being one of those.

I don't really consider the minor pullbacks on the way up to be "corrections". They're just adjusting to the outer bounds of the moving averages. It could most certainly enter a correction at this point though.

The lower correction actually looks like a flagging pattern. Usually the second flag only goes up a little ways, before going down a bit, so we should hope it manages to keep going up from here and not out a ways sideways.

Remember: Every time it does this there are a lot of people saying that it will keep going up and hit $100k or $1m or whatever.

The question is weather this candles have any flame

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I don't think we are going to break $48K again. Alts saw close to a 30% today and there's still a battle in most of that space. The question will be how Asia handles the red.

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I think Nicaragoa is the key to understand the trend analysis flow chart behaviour

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If the coin continue like it does we might see it plunge to 60k next month ;)

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Ha, that would be nice. It could happen too, though history is pointing toward it being a 30% correction and a drop to about $42k or so. I'm hoping we already saw the lows today though.

I am hoping (yet again) that you are wrong, and there is a 30% correction!

History usually repeats...

Lol, funny how that works. Though last time, there was a 30% correction but you were hoping for something around a 50% correction...

Yeah, I'm thinking there are regular corrections, but at some point there will also be some much bigger economic problems, and if both occur together, at least 50% will happen.

Usually I'm right with these calls but tend to be way too early. Last month I said Feb, but now thinking first half of this year

Tell me honestly

Would you buy btc today?

I wouldn't, I think it has about a 70% chance of dropping from the current price

I am not a buyer here today, no. However, $48k is a decent spot and anything below that starts to get interesting to me again yes.

So you are expecting sub 50?

Me too

Only way bitcoin falls by 50% from the highs is if there's a blackswan or if the cycle is over... which could be one in the same.

"History usually repeats..."

The irony here is that is exactly what I was saying to you the last time when you were saying it was going down to $20k from $42k, and I was telling you that if that happened it would be something different than happened back in 2017 when it never saw a pullback of more than 38%.

Don't I know it!

It's OK though, I'm juggling a dozen coins here and 10 of them have been good calls - my two bad ones are Bitcoin and Etherium, which I sold too soon in anticipation of this pullback that might be happening right now. But I've actually done very well on all of them really. And a pullback is overdue, so no panic.

Nicely done. Hopefully HIVE responds a little better at some here. Double in price is nice, but it's still a major laggard compared to most out there...

I'm picking hive over $1 within 3 months


 3 years ago  Reveal Comment
 3 years ago  Reveal Comment

You remind me of myself play bowling. I always tilt my had after my throws hoping it will change something

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If I were ro choose. I would say history will repeat itself. Even institutional investors will want to take profits.

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I don't see things moving below the $45k range. There is still a lot of enthusiasm about crypto. This is a buying opportunity for many.

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@jrcornel knows best.
It is definitely a correction everywhere.
By the way I look at #dogecoin, there is no correction
now. Maybe the whales are waiting for btc to drop more.


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The way I see it: heads, it goes higher. Tails: it goes lower and then goes higher. I'm not smart enough to figure it out. I'm just a HODLer. I'll keep averaging in until 100k. That's what I should have been doing the last time. I may be wrong, who knows? But I just think that at some point in the next 5 years its going to be well into the mid six figures so....the more I can get down here, the more I'll have then. If you stuck a gun to my head and made me pick, I'd agree with you and say we've already seen the low. I still think the $1T mkt cap number is pretty important to the bulls and they'll be out in force to keep it near there and above. Just my opinion.... Good analysis!! I really like reading it...

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This bull will be different, BTC finally profiled itself as the most lucrative investment one could have made. If the value of an asset is determined by 'need' then Btc makes perfect sense. An actual hedge against inflation and QE.

It's a trigger for the altseason - :D

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That chart put things into perspective!
its always a matter of reference. great read.

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It's probably my favorite chart in crypto right now. :)

Based on what I saw this morning it appears to be a bit of a deeper dive. I still don't think it hit that 30% mark that you mentioned. It feels like it would have needed to drop well below the $44k price point it hit this morning. I am still just kind of playing catchup at this point. I try not to dwell on these dips too much.

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People who get nervous will be selling in a panic soon, then FOMO back in when it goes up. We all want to think we buy low and sell high, but it's probably the opposite. It's a bit of a sad cycle, really.

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90% correction?